tgenius wrote:All I know is a huge feeder band is about to smack Miami with some serious rain!!
really don't think that is a feeder band.
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tgenius wrote:All I know is a huge feeder band is about to smack Miami with some serious rain!!
ozonepete wrote:There is no eye and won't be until Sunday. RGB and IR satellite show it's beginning to ingest dry air from subsiding air coming down the mountain slopes of Hispaniola, i.e. convection is collapsing on the northern side. The center is also opening up on the southeastern side. While this is expected due to the very mountainus terrain of hispaniola and eastern Cuba, I really feel that Isaac will bust loose on sunday as it moves off the northern coast of Cuba. With such an impressive outflow mechanism due to an upper level anti-cyclone (that isn't expected to dissipate) it should do a really impressive RI on sunday. But I really don't see where everyone is expecting a TC crossing this area to intensify(?!)
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:To get a discussion going, who buys the eastern models and who buys the nhc track.
Blinhart wrote:I'm starting to think that this slower movement, will have a major effect in the future path of Isaac. The longer it takes to move North, I feel it will take a further Western Path. I'm starting to think that the Euro from a couple days ago that showed a Sabine Pass landing on Thursday might be more than accurate.
LaBreeze wrote:Blinhart wrote:I'm starting to think that this slower movement, will have a major effect in the future path of Isaac. The longer it takes to move North, I feel it will take a further Western Path. I'm starting to think that the Euro from a couple days ago that showed a Sabine Pass landing on Thursday might be more than accurate.
Not good for us then Blinhart. I tend to think you may be right - but I'm hoping we are so wrong.
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:To get a discussion going, who buys the eastern models and who buys the nhc track.
Blinhart wrote:I'm starting to think that this slower movement, will have a major effect in the future path of Isaac. The longer it takes to move North, I feel it will take a further Western Path. I'm starting to think that the Euro from a couple days ago that showed a Sabine Pass landing on Thursday might be more than accurate.
ObsessedMiami wrote:artist wrote:I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.
Bryan Norcross did a good job on TWC explaining that TS force winds would basically extend all acrossthe entire peninsula of FL if it followed the GFS track, not just affecting "the cone"
fci wrote:Blinhart wrote:I'm starting to think that this slower movement, will have a major effect in the future path of Isaac. The longer it takes to move North, I feel it will take a further Western Path. I'm starting to think that the Euro from a couple days ago that showed a Sabine Pass landing on Thursday might be more than accurate.
I think the longer it takes, the stronger it gets and the further north that he goes.
The path across the Lower Key, clipping the SW tip and then into Eastern GOM with second landfall (if it actually makes a first on SW FL) in the Panhandle, FL/AL border area is what has been pretty consistently forecast and makes the most sense to me.
I just don't see a reason for the further western path.
Can you explain what draws you to that conclusion?
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.
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