ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Great project brunota! Those wind speed probabilities are for sustained winds, right?

Yes...they are taken straight off the graphics the NHC has on their website (I use the full 120 hours). I just take them and everything that is 20% or greater, color it all in as one color for each level (35 knots, 50 knots, 64 knots, or 39 mph, 58 mph, and 74 mph), then merged the segments together to create one overall image.

That image is definitely an upgrade over past images!

For example:

Hurricane Irene 2011 (created a few months after the fact, this was my first "test" image, and the only 2 images I've ever had the hurricane force red in)
1st: http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/862/ ... timage.gif
2nd: http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/2562/i ... 3lines.jpg

Tropical Storm Alberto 2012 (first "live" image):
http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/9568 ... berto1.jpg

Tropical Cyclone Isaac 2012 (named it that because it is ongoing, unknown what it's final strength will be):
1st: http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/8256/isaac1.gif

Now compare those images to tonight's:
2nd: http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/4002/isaac2.jpg

Much improved!

(Sorry to stray a bit)

[jinftl]

Not sure if it is technically a feeder band, but NWS Miami Discussion Update this evening does mention:

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA.
GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.

[SapphireSea]

Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.

Looks like boundary from the trough to it's NE. This is what's currently influencing Isaac's movement causing him to slow down and move a bit more north than anticipated. It should be lifting out shortly. I am interested in how this new energy from the W moving into the center of the country is going to come into play. It also has a good trough boundary that may affect the track as well.

[Sal Collaziano]

BOY did we just get a band from Isaac in Royal Palm Beach. If what just happened has nothing to do with the storm, I'd be very surprised. It was like a tropical storm for about 5 minutes. We've been getting a lot of rain lately but nothing like this...

[MHurricanes]

Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.

Looks like boundary from the trough to it's NE. This is what's currently influencing Isaac's movement causing him to slow down and move a bit more north than anticipated. It should be lifting out shortly. I am interested in how this new energy from the W moving into the center of the country is going to come into play. It also has a good trough boundary that may affect the track as well.

Exactly. Joe Bastardi has mentioned this trough several times in his recent Tweets.

Joe Tweets:

"NAM still trying se FLA idea big problem trough off west coast pumping rockies ridge, leaving trof to catch Isaac."

[SouthFLTropics]

I believe that the rainfall and storms moving into the Florida East Coast are from Isaac's outflow. If it was from the trough the storms should be moving from SW to NE I would think.

SFT

[caneseddy]

Getting smacked here in downtown Miami with lightning...but no rain yet

This is the beginning methinks

[jinftl]

TWC Tropical Update just said that storms in south florida are part of larger circulation that is from isaac....

I believe that the rainfall and storms moving into the Florida East Coast are from Isaac's outflow. If it was from the trough the storms should be moving from SW to NE I would think.

SFT

[KBBOCA]

Really interesting blog post up now by Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground about historical interactions of tropical cyclones with Hispaniola & Cuba.

Here's a teaser:
Throughout hurricane history, numerous tropical storms and hurricanes have battered themselves against Hispaniola and Cuba. Some have been destroyed; others have survived and gone on to wreak additional havoc. Cuba's most formidable barrier to hurricanes is the one Isaac will be running into--the eastern portion of the island, where mountains up to 6,000 feet high rear up out of the sea. I present here a history of five storms that crossed portions of both Hispaniola and Cuba, similar to Isaac's track. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba, and one went on to become the deadliest disaster in American history--the Great Galveston Hurricane.

Full blog here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2203

[tropicwatch]

Cool post boca

[SapphireSea]

I believe that the rainfall and storms moving into the Florida East Coast are from Isaac's outflow. If it was from the trough the storms should be moving from SW to NE I would think.

SFT

You make a good point. In Issac's position through the outflow should be causing a bit of subsidence, but something has to be triggering the convection all across the state. Perhaps this trough is not very deep-layered and confined to the upper levels (which makes sense), while the lower level flows are still to the east. In a way we can be both correct.

[MGC]

Talked with my sister down in Ft Lauderdale......not a concern in the world. "Just gonna get a little wind, they say its gonna hit way down in the Keys....." Hope this is not the prevelant attitude in south FLA......MGC

[BigB0882]

Exactly. Joe Bastardi has mentioned this trough several times in his recent Tweets.

Joe Tweets:

"NAM still trying se FLA idea big problem trough off west coast pumping rockies ridge, leaving trof to catch Isaac."

I would say that the big problem is JB is focusing on the NAM to try and get his predictions to come to fruition. lol

[Hurricane Andrew]

Folks, I am going to have a new kind of forecast I post. it will have three codes.

YELLOW: An upgrade to red is likely.
RED: Winds of 60 or more miles per hour are possible, and or Heavy, Flooding rains, as well as surge.
PURPLE: Winds could exceed 96 miles per hour, with widespread damage expected.

These alerts will be issued per county, or for example, The Western Keys.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



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I would love to hear your feedback.

[Stephanie]

I hope it isn't either MGC. The west coast of Florida and southern section was smacked around a lot during 2004 & 2005. We haven't peaked yet in the season.

[artist]

This is not a typical thunderstorm complex - moving west at 25 mph...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 5 MILES EAST OF PRINCETON...AND MOVING
WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI...
COCONUT GROVE...
CORAL GABLES...
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI...
WESTCHESTER...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.

over 2000 are without power out where I live from this line that came through according to the fpl outage map. We lost power several times for about a minute ourselves.

[SapphireSea]

This is exactly the attitude of everyone down here. I live near Homestead, and even down in FL. City they are talking about 20-30mph winds at best. Seems pretty reckless to me.

[brunota2003]

I do like the idea, would like to see how it goes for sure!

I think 3 colors are a bit too broad, though (granted, mine only has three, but I only have three graphics to pull from!) Perhaps something like the military bases have, the TCCORs (Okinawa has that).

[Bocadude85]

Talked with my sister down in Ft Lauderdale......not a concern in the world. "Just gonna get a little wind, they say its gonna hit way down in the Keys....." Hope this is not the prevelant attitude in south FLA......MGC

Currently they are forecasting wind gusts to 55mph down here.. nothing to sneeze at but also something we get in the typical summer time thunderstorms

[JamesCaneTracker]

Depending on how much Isaac interacts with Cuba even the Keys could be in for a rude awakening if it strengthens more then expected and those in the keys aren't prepared...