Emmett_Brown wrote:Just my opinion, but i think NHC should consider getting rid of the cone altogether. It confuses people... they think that the cone is the area that will receive affects... they don't understand the strike probability that the cone is supposed to convey. The closer you get to the storm, the smaller the cone gets, which many people mistakenly interpret to mean that they won't receive affects. Instead, they should show a band of expected wind speed coverage for the storm's passage so that people can see the actual width of a tropical cyclone. You see this band from time to time on some sites, but the cone is usually the graphic that gets the most coverage.
Personally I do like the JTWC approach. They do still have a cone, but the storm's representation shows various wind fields like some unofficial sites. They can superimpose a storm swath as well, but realistically the more organized the storm is, the closer it gets to the myth of a storm being a dot. A storm like Andrew which maintained perfect intensity through it's landfall held only a small area of the Catagory 4 winds, I think literally a 5-10 mile swath. Now mind you that the 100KT and 80KT swath was about 15-30 miles with it quickly dropping off to 50KT.
Wilma had a giant swath of wind, but had very dangerous cells with microbursts and tornadoes associated. A hurricanes capacity to cause damage is unquantifiable, even once intensity forecasting is perfected. I think a general threat area superimposed on a cone of error is the right way to go.
That's too bad, it appears Isaac's inner core is becoming much better organized in the last few hours...I'm a bit surprised how fast and well considering its about to hit Haiti (and smash Port Au Prince). This is close to the worse case scenario for that city, most are living in tents and I can't imagine anything less than a huge disaster. There are two things I thought Isaac would do no matter what: 1. Be a deadly tropical cyclone and 2. Become a hurricane at some point. The first and second predictions might be occurring right now.
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