ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

it looks like the center has made landfall already? No?

appears base on recon... making landfall now in Haiti

[brunota2003]

Has happened to me for the last 3 nights around 230am

me too, must be some kind of server maintenance, stinks when it corresponds with the euro run.

Southerngale said the site shuts down for a couple minutes every night around this time for maintenance. Must be my Firefox acting up. Anyways, I'm off to bed. Y'all have a good night and stay safe!

[ozonepete]

Trough is digging a little further into the east right now. In response to it Isaac seems to be moving a little more NNW like 340 degrees instead of due NW. This could be important for the future track, meaning the models may have to shift back a little more east again towards the east coast of Florida. Would also mean that Isaac could get out over open very warm water where it can intensify earlier than we thought. Way too early still to know if this latest trend will last, but once again we'll have to wait for the next model output, which isn't until the 12Z runs which we will see at around 11:30AM. Don't think you can say much before they come out. JMHO.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

thought that happened a few hrs ago..

No. It was moving Northwest. North-Northwest motion would take it much more toward the east coast of Florida.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd say landfall is now, does already look a little disrupted looking at the loops.

[timmeister]

it looks like the center has made landfall already? No?

Yes.

[summersquall]

Joe Bastardi believes that Isaac will do a "dance due to frictional affects next 24 hours" right around Cuba and bomb to "970 mb or lower by Sunday evening." https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 6924392448

[meriland23]

it looks like the center has made landfall already? No?

Yes.

looks jsut south... but about to

[pricetag56]

it looks like the center has made landfall already? No?

appears base on recon... making landfall now in Haiti

Looking at the satellite it should be cleared of Hati by tomorrow afternoon at least and back over water and lookin at the motion it looks like it will have little interaction with cuba but southern inflow might be cut off once north of the big islands

[deltadog03]

To me, it looks like it has...

[pricetag56]

Also has a partial eyewall forming in the south quad but hasnt developed in the north it wont strengthen much until the eyewall is complete but like i said southern inflow might affect that

[stormhunter7]

Recon VDM had 51kts at surface.. from west about 10 miles from coast... safe to say the coc is along the coast of Haiti now.. about 20 miles west of Jacmel, Haiti

[KWT]

Joe Bastardi believes that Isaac will do a "dance due to frictional affects next 24 hours" right around Cuba and bomb to "970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

Hmmm its interesting, we've seen that sort of thing happen before so its not out of the question, if that were to happen, watch out!

[pricetag56]

Joe Bastardi believes that Isaac will do a "dance due to frictional affects next 24 hours" right around Cuba and bomb to "970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

Hmmm its interesting, we've seen that sort of thing happen before so its not out of the question, if that were to happen, watch out!

What storm has that happened with?

[SapphireSea]

Most definitely should have made landfall. I strongly wonder about the progress of the ridge building in from the west. I still see the east ridge not particularly in play either. The trough on FL/SC is slowly lifting out instead of being sheared away, I wonder if will prevent the ridge from building back in / bridging longer than forecaster. I understand that the trough is more in the upper levels and it's more of a ULL. Although at the same time this feature lingering cannot be condusive for RI either.

[northjaxpro]

Isaac is just now coming ashore the western tip of Haiti based on satellite imagery.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[pricetag56]

A storm wont RI if the eyewall, inner core isnt fully developed yet

[KWT]

Joe Bastardi believes that Isaac will do a "dance due to frictional affects next 24 hours" right around Cuba and bomb to "970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

Hmmm its interesting, we've seen that sort of thing happen before so its not out of the question, if that were to happen, watch out!

What storm has that happened with?

Normally happens with storms moving around jamaica, take a look at Ivan as a good example!

Should be moving ashore, recon pretty much confirms that.

[pricetag56]

I see so Ivan went around Jamaica due to friction???

[ozonepete]

Look at the satellite images. It is well inland now and will move across the bay to the northern coast of Haiti. The BIG question is how sharply west it will go after this. If it goes WNW it will travel along most of the northern coast of Cuba and will stay weak for quite a while. If it stays north of the Cuban coast it will strengthen rapidly.

[pricetag56]

Look at the satellite images. It is well inland now and will move across the bay to the northern coast of Haiti. The BIG question is how sharply west it will go after this. If it goes WNW it will travel along most of the northern coast of Cuba and will stay weak for quite a while. If it stays north of the Cuban coast it will strengthen rapidly.

You dont think southern inflow will be a problem if it clears north of cuban coast?