ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Most definitely should have made landfall. I strongly wonder about the progress of the ridge building in from the west. I still see the east ridge not particularly in play either. The trough on FL/SC is slowly lifting out instead of being sheared away, I wonder if will prevent the ridge from building back in / bridging longer than forecaster. I understand that the trough is more in the upper levels and it's more of a ULL. Although at the same time this feature lingering cannot be condusive for RI either.

Oh yeah, you are paying close attention to what I am keeping an eye on as well. Good observation. There was a small cold core Low Pressure area which developed over coastal Georgia late Thursday and is riding up the East coast, currently located on the Virginia coastline. That shortwave feature has allowed for the trough to dig much farther down into the Gulf of Mexico. I am thinking that the trough may delay the ridge from building back in a bit longer than what is being forecast right now. This may allow Isaac more time across the Florida Straits and move a bit more northward a little while longer. I would not be surprised at all if we see later model runs shift a little bit more east for Isaac during today and tonight.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

Look at the satellite images. It is well inland now and will move across the bay to the northern coast of Haiti. The BIG question is how sharply west it will go after this. If it goes WNW it will travel along most of the northern coast of Cuba and will stay weak for quite a while. If it stays north of the Cuban coast it will strengthen rapidly.

You dont think southern inflow will be a problem if it clears north of cuban coast?

It hasn't been a problem with most TCs taking this route, probably because Cuba is so small from north to south so the amount of land interference for TCs moving this way is pretty negligible.

Very different from when they go over it lengthwise.

[timmeister]

[ozonepete]

And especially after it passes extreme eastern Cuba where all of the mountains are.

[summersquall]

Thank you all for the excellent analysis. I learn so much. Need to get some rest. Know that the next few days will be long ones.

[ozonepete]

http://i50.tinypic.com/2mg8i68.jpg
http://i45.tinypic.com/20pegas.gif

They match for center location, i.e. that is the cente location.

[stormhunter7]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes Northern COC is starting to appear on Guantanamo Bay Cuba Radar

[pricetag56]

:uarrow: And especially after it passes extreme eastern Cuba where all of the mountains are.

What im saying is, is it possible for dry air off the mountains to impede southern inflow?

[stormhunter7]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 07:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 09

RADAR FIX PSBL CNTR 18DEG 30MIN N, 73DEG 21MIN W, POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 15NM
Observation Time: Saturday, 7:00Z

[stephen23]

Looks like it is almost headed due north now. Looks to me that it needs to me it needs to head a little west or its going to run up the cost and tangle with mountains all the way through Haiti. Am i see that correctly?

[pricetag56]

Looks like it is almost headed due north now. Looks to me that it needs to me it needs to head a little west or its going to run up the cost and tangle with mountains all the way through Haiti. Am i see that correctly?

No its definately still heading nw i believe if you pinpoint exactly where the coc is and draw a line you can see

[jlauderdal]

[quote="timmeister"]



coc looks like it wants to shoot the gap..be interesting to see how the structure will be effected because it looks like the coc wont be running into the mountains..of course there will be some issues with the overall circulation...this is critical because once it gets in the straits the conditions look rather favorable

[meriland23]

has anyone ever thought that it could clip NE cuba and just keep on heading NW NNW up the EC?

[jlauderdal]

has anyone ever thought that it could clip NE cuba and just keep on heading NW NNW up the EC?

yes, seems like there is enough ridge in place to prevent that from happening

[stephen23]

Seems to be tightening back up now that it's on north side and convection has really incresed in past few frames. Almost looks loike the land helped it?

[Cyclenall]

TCHP for Isaac in the Florida Straits. South has highest explosive potential and just a side note, Issac is in warmer waters than previously within the Mona passage which he is entering now.

[northjaxpro]

Isaac's center just may shoot the gap. It may barely clip the extreme eastern edge of Cuba, but it looks for the moment the center may be moving on an angle NW/ N-NW.
________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[shaggy]

Looks like it is almost headed due north now. Looks to me that it needs to me it needs to head a little west or its going to run up the cost and tangle with mountains all the way through Haiti. Am i see that correctly?

Looks like NNW right now to me also. Probably doesn't matter in the long range but its gonna put the Bahamas in a better shot at seeing some TS force winds and we'll have to see how long it persists on this heading.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Current extent of tropical storm force wind field, 200 nautical miles in NE quadrant. Along the track, that looks like this:

[meriland23]

in case you all are wondering, center is alread past haiti and back in water and didn't effect the strength much at all.