ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

in case you all are wondering, center is alread past haiti and back in water and didn't effect the strength much at all.

Yeah, I agree. I think the center is moving more N/NW at the moment. This will have more significant impacts on the Bahamas and of course extreme South Florida impacting them later today and tonight.
________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to .he NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

Also, seems just E of the forecasr point at this time...If this is the case it will have very little land interaction with Cuba and be back over the water today......Still continues NW/NNW

[stephen23]

in case you all are wondering, center is alread past haiti and back in water and didn't effect the strength much at all.

I'm glad you said that. I thought I didn't know what I was looking at. The recon position is showing well west of that. If the center is truly where we are seeing it, it appears it is east of the forcast point. Will this change interaction with Cuba? Like maybe the difference between 3 or 4 hours over Cuba to if it follows path maybe 30 min over cuba?

[meriland23]

question is whether it wants to go through the winward passage or due north toward port-de-paix

[jinftl]

Take a moment to pray for the folks in Haiti - there are 400,000 people living in tents still from the earthquake in 2010 in and around Port au Prince. The band to the south of Haiti looks very menacing.

[meriland23]

looking at wundergrounds sat image.. looks liek the above image is right ^ unless the center is marked wrong, Reed Timmer marked that.

[jlauderdal]

Also, seems just E of the forecasr point at this time...If this is the case it will have very little land interaction with Cuba and be back over the water today......Still continues NW/NNW

JB is getting his perfect scenario for his 2/3 prediction...however just because it misses land doesn't mean he verifies but it sure does give him a much bigger chance of working out

I believe NHC extends those hurricane watches northward up the east coast and also increases their intensity forecast...we will know shortly if i verify

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic just released at 4am EDT shows bullseye of heaviest rain in Upper Keys and mainland south florida....

[MJS1]

looking at wundergrounds sat image.. looks liek the above image is right ^ unless the center is marked wrong, Reed Timmer marked that.

The Wunderground page says Isaac has 71 mph winds...hey,it's GREAT to be back!

[northjaxpro]

Take a moment to pray for the folks in Haiti - there are 400,000 people living in tents still from the earthquake in 2010 in and around Port au Prince. The band to the south of Haiti looks very menacing.

You are absolutely right. My heart and prayers go out to all of the people who are being affected in Haiti currently. The flooding rains is the huge worry as Isaac passes to their north and northwest today, they are going to get the southwest feederbands to rotate through. Just a terrible situation there.

[meriland23]

71? I see 70 but not 71, and that was for the 2 am advis

[MJS1]

I live in NC,just over the NC/SC border and the ambient temperature right now is 10 degrees cooler than average...is this anomaly part of what's pulling Isaac poleward in the short term?

[Vortex]

Folks, Issac is on the eastern side of the guidance at this time..If this trend continues a much stronger storm is quite possible as it approaches the keys/sfl late sunday night(little land interaction).....These trends must be followed very closely from this point on.

[meriland23]

Folks, Issac is on the eastern side of the guidance at this time..If this trend continues a much stronger storm is quite possible as it approaches the keys/sfl late sunday night(little land interaction).....These trends must be followed very closely from this point on.

scarey, but would the mean more likely a SEFL hit vs keys? then crossing over into the gulf? or inbetween fl/cuba through the keys still?

[northjaxpro]

I live in NC,just over the NC/SC border and the ambient temperature right now is 10 degrees cooler than average...is this anomaly part of what's pulling Isaac poleward in the short term?

It is that anomalous East Coast trough extending rather deep down currently into the Gulf of Mexico which is currently steering Isaac to the N-NW. I have been stating for the past couple of dyas that this trough may pull Isaac more north a bit longer than the models have shown. Today will be very interesting to see what the models will do. I would not be shocked to see them shift a bit more east later today.
___________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Canelaw99]

NOAA graphic just released at 4am EDT shows bullseye of heaviest rain in Upper Keys and mainland south florida....

What I find interesting here is the little x off the SE FL coast, where the 8.78 is. Wonder if that is Where they think storm might be, or what? Either way we're in for a lot of rain down here, especially southern Dade. This is after enormous amounts in recent months.

[jinftl]

Hurricane warnings for Keys and SW FL and Watch now for Miami-Dade county!

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

[Vortex]

Hurricane warnings for Keys and SW FL and Watch now for Miami-Dade county!

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

Smart move-

[meriland23]

Hurricane warnings for Keys and SW FL and Watch now for Miami-Dade county!

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

Smart move-

with all this fuss and muss over isaac for over a week, I could see a ridonkulous amount of people piling up traffic in the miami area.. it is about time they warn these people

[Vortex]

Right now Iaac contines to be on the eastern envelope of the models with a nw/nnw trajectory....He will be back over water later today and it looks less likely there will not be much of an issue with land thereafter....could easily be a 2 when hearing keys/sfl sunday night