ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JamesCaneTracker]

Any chances Isaac could fall apart or is that far fetched at this point because the circulation is well intact?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would say far fetched... Isaac didn't spend much time at all over Haiti and looks like he won't be spending much time over Cuba so not much else to stop him...

[wxman57]

Any chances Isaac could fall apart or is that far fetched at this point because the circulation is well intact?

Won't fall apart, but I think that the chances of it being weaker than forecast are greater than of it becoming stronger than forecast.

[MiamiensisWx]

Any chances Isaac could fall apart or is that far fetched at this point because the circulation is well intact?

Won't fall apart, but I think that the chances of it being weaker than forecast are greater than of it becoming stronger than forecast.

I do not disagree with you, but for informational purposes I would very much appreciate your reasoning. Thanks!

[JamesCaneTracker]

Any chances Isaac could fall apart or is that far fetched at this point because the circulation is well intact?

Won't fall apart, but I think that the chances of it being weaker than forecast are greater than of it becoming stronger than forecast.

Just wondering why you say that? I mean with less Land interaction the core is still relatively well in tact... Pressure is already falling again... Warm SSTs... Low wind Shear... What is missing?

[northjaxpro]

Isaac is looking quite ragged this morning. Anyone else concur?

Not as bad as I thought he was going to be this morning, it is quickly gaining organization with the pressure now down to 998mb.

Actually, pressure has come up a bit with Issac. It was 992 mb earlier before interacting with Haiti. That weakening was expected. But, considering the center has managed to get in the Windward Passage and is likely to get by the Eastern tip of Cuba, it looks as if Isaac got out out there relatively in good shape.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wzrgirl1]

OK that makes me feel a bit better. People around here starting to close their accordians but no one really putting up the steel shutters yet. We were going to wait until the 11:00 advisory to do any of that. The weather is so ugly around here already that if shutters are necessary people wil be doing it in the rain....very dangerous especially if you need to climb a ladder and have a two story house. Very fine line down here.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 09, 2012082512, , BEST, 0, 197N, 737W, 50, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, D,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[psyclone]

it really looks like hispaniola has done a number to isaac. even though the center may have cleared land, it's very lopsided and the low level circ may be impacted by the nearby higher elevations for some time to come. look at the lack of convection north and west of the center. perhaps downsloping winds are contributing. with the way Isaac has behaved, my inclination is to bet against strengthening until there's compelling evidence to the contrary.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherboy1]

Well whatever that trough area is in the vicinity of the Keys, it is soaking us here in South FL. Been pouring in Jupiter on and off all morning ... and Isaac isn't even supposed to be in our neighborhood for another 24-36 hours. I do still wonder if this more northerly component is going to continue a bit longer than anticipated. Seems like Isaac is consistently missing model and forecast points to the north and east - not by a lot, but a little. And each miss increases the risk further up the coast of FL. All in my amateur opinion, of course.

[Blown Away]

IMO Hispaniola's mountains have tugged Isaac on a north wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[OverlandHurricane]

Any chances Isaac could fall apart or is that far fetched at this point because the circulation is well intact?

Won't fall apart, but I think that the chances of it being weaker than forecast are greater than of it becoming stronger than forecast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I guess that depends on where you're talking about. Before the Keys, maybe. Once it gets to the Gulf, I would suggest that water conditions are not condusive to a Katrina-style bombout. Hot, but not terribly deep.

I present you with today's TCHP map for the western Atlantic basin.

[TexasF6]

OK, I see Ex-Joyce racing westward? Any effects on Isaac possibly from shear? venting? or can she be absorbed by Isaac? As if the blob trough wasn't enough...

[robbielyn]

Weaker why? Cuz shearing from that vort its not venting it.

[meriland23]

Not too happy about the fact HWRF takes this all the way down to 940 mb on the western panhandle, lowest I have seen Isaac forecasted (in strength)

[JamesCaneTracker]

Isaac is looking quite ragged this morning. Anyone else concur?

Not as bad as I thought he was going to be this morning, it is quickly gaining organization with the pressure now down to 998mb.

Actually, pressure has come up a bit with Issac. It was 992 mb earlier before interacting with Haiti. That weakening was expected. But, considering the center has managed to get in the Windward Passage and is likely to get by the Eastern tip of Cuba, it looks as if Isaac got out out there relatively in good shape.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The First Recon fix after it passed Haiti had the Pressure up to 1000mb... The 2nd Pass had it down to 998mb so it did come down from what it was after the first pass...

[tropicwatch]

COC is showing up on GITMO radar.

GITMO Radar

[jlauderdal]

Not too happy about the fact HWRF takes this all the way down to 940 mb on the western panhandle, lowest I have seen Isaac forecasted (in strength)

dont get caught up with intensity forecasting especially hwrf, that thing has a history over doing intensity...however, this system will have plenty of juice to wok with and it has a bit of headstart based on the lack of land interaction the last 24 hours

[meriland23]

COC is showing up on GITMO radar.

GITMO Radar

what... over north haiti? don't think that is it based on the fact it is completely stationary.. glitch or something?

[wxwatcher1999]

So is it safe to say the upper Texas coast and sw Louisiana is in the clear?

[tailgater]

NNW jog earlier now seems to back to NW or even WNW should stay over eastern Cuba a good 5 or 6 hours and the mountains on the southern coast are pretty high, I would think he would he would be down to 45 or 50 mph TS by the 11am advisory.