ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SouthDadeFish
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#3921 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:43 am

The current steering currents would lead one to believe a WNW motion would resume shortly:

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3922 Postby tgenius » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:44 am

So I ask what is the likelihood of the hurricane watch being upgraded to warning? In most businesses here their BCP/DR plans kick in at the warning and I'd think they wouldn't wait until 5 as the evening would be getting closer for the conditions Sunday.
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#3923 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:45 am

Microwave imagery shows the core of Isaac fared well in the journey across Haiti:

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#3924 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:50 am

This Windsat pass shows the low level structure is still healthy, with a lot of warm rain around the center of the storm. Warm rain, as in it has not cooled to ice:

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3925 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:51 am

I've got the partially exposed center @ 74.4W 20N, is anyone else seeing it there on the southern coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3926 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:56 am

tgenius wrote:So I ask what is the likelihood of the hurricane watch being upgraded to warning? In most businesses here their BCP/DR plans kick in at the warning and I'd think they wouldn't wait until 5 as the evening would be getting closer for the conditions Sunday.
they will make their decisions based on their criteria of watches and warnings..its really pretty simple as it should be. If a watch or warning irs required at 11 based on expected conditions based on THEIR forecast than they will make changes. No need to over think these things.

For any school kids out their looking for a day off in sofla monday...your chances continue to increase by the hour....be patient but do your homework anyway... :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3927 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:56 am

If this clears n haitian coast and is in the straits it could potentially go wnw toward lower keys and strengthen quickly. Wonder if cimss steering flow accounts for the current keys disturbance that well
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3928 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:58 am

tailgater wrote:I've got the partially exposed center @ 74.4W 20N, is anyone else seeing it there on the southern coast.


I see it more at 73.5W 20N, but i could be wrong.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3929 Postby Flakeys » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:59 am

Breezy Palms Resort in Islamorada webcam. http://www.breezypalms.com/webcam.htm
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#3930 Postby Time_Zone » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:59 am

Doesn't look too hot to me. It looks unlikely that Isaac will ever reach his full potential and become the monster that alot of people have been fearing. Although stranger things have happened I just don't see him ever making a run to major hurricane status which of course would be great for everyone if indeed that is the case.


Just my un-educated opinion not an official forecast



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Last edited by Time_Zone on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:21 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#3931 Postby bucman1 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:01 am

Based on some peoples one, if the track is east of projected track,how may that change the track for the west coast of Fla,if any
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#3932 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:02 am

Is it me or on the last 3 frames of the sat loop the llcc seems to be exposed, or dose it have a really disorganized structure
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3933 Postby BenD » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:05 am

Just saying hi, have been watching this storm due to its chances of bringing even more rain to N/Central Florida.

Been quite a year for this part of Florida with so much rain. What a year to move here ..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3934 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:05 am

tailgater wrote:I've got the partially exposed center @ 74.4W 20N, is anyone else seeing it there on the southern coast.



I like your west number....I think its below that though and more like 19.7N.....splitting hairs I know....the LLC is exposed and MLC is tilted from SW to NE....not that big of deal once it refires some convection over the LLC...IF it stays off of Cuba...
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Re:

#3935 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:05 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Is it me or on the last 3 frames of the sat loop the llcc seems to be exposed, or dose it have a really disorganized structure



It looks like this is decoupling, that would be good news for those in south Florida and the Gulf Coast if true, but there is a possibility of center reformation under the MLC if current LLCC goes into Cuba

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3936 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:07 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Is it me or on the last 3 frames of the sat loop the llcc seems to be exposed, or dose it have a really disorganized structure



correct...its tilted, LLC is exposed somewhat.....if it can stay off CUba then it might gain a little strength....interesting the WNW trek looks to have resumed...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3937 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:07 am

Here we go again. Local wpb mets are saying will have breezy conditions and we shouldn't be concerned. No shutters will be needed here at all. Seems irresponsible to be broadcasting that when things can change at any time.

Eta- he just doubled back and said UNLESS things change. Wise decision.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3938 Postby ATCcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:08 am

tailgater wrote:I've got the partially exposed center @ 74.4W 20N, is anyone else seeing it there on the southern coast.


I think that it's close to that position.
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Re: Re:

#3939 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:08 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:Is it me or on the last 3 frames of the sat loop the llcc seems to be exposed, or dose it have a really disorganized structure



It looks like this is decoupling, that would be good news for those in south Florida and the Gulf Coast if true

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its not decoupled...your best bet would it to tranverse all of Cuba but I dont think thats going to happen....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3940 Postby MJS1 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:09 am

TexasF6 wrote:@CronkPSU, someone mentioned earlier that Andrew "chased" a blob in directionality...but I would take that with a grain of salt. IMHO, looks like he will shoot through Hurricane Alley, the worry will be a bend back towards Tampa if some of the latest model trends of NE move at the end of his run prior to landfall. I have not seen any tweets on loss of life in Haiti as of yet, worth a mention ATP.

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Oh,no..it DID happen..it was a ULL that almost killed Andrew..it moved west afterwards,crossed Florida and eventually into Mexico..Andrew DID follow it thru Florida...obviously and ONLY IN MY UNTRAINED OPINION if the present "blob" stays put it doesn't fare well for Isaac..as an UNTRAINED AMATEUR I assumed wrongly it appears that the "blob" would move west..
I am AN AMATEUR AT BEST who is USUALLY WRONG..just ask my wife..actually,don't..she'll take my laptop away...29 years married..**sigh**

Apologies to the Mods..now,back on topic
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