2012 EPAC season

[Cyclenall]

This is really depressing. I wanted some nice super fish....

On to the next.

The next is the same as the last one, nothing. Good avatar, didn't think I'd see a Yuna on here .

Aha a life

A life that is about to be snuffed out . In relation to the image posted of the dry air, the Cpac looks so dead and its been that way for ages and ages now. It almost looks like a winter pattern over there, can't tell the difference with that WV one. At this time in 2006 (El Nino forming), we had a category 5 spinning in the Cpac and Wpac, and right now we don't even have an Invest.

[Kingarabian]

This is really depressing. I wanted some nice super fish....

On to the next.

The next is the same as the last one, nothing. Good avatar, didn't think I'd see a Yuna on here .

Aha a life

A life that is about to be snuffed out . In relation to the image posted of the dry air, the Cpac looks so dead and its been that way for ages and ages now. It almost looks like a winter pattern over there, can't tell the difference with that WV one. At this time in 2006 (El Nino forming), we had a category 5 spinning in the Cpac and Wpac, and right now we don't even have an Invest.

She soothes my emotions after I look at the dead EPac.

[euro6208]

euro finally develops a tropical cyclone! although small and probrably weak!

[cycloneye]

Maybe this is what Euro develops.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Ntxw]

Hang in there EPAC guys. MJO/rising air is progressing slowly eastward in the Atlantic and will be nearing the Indian ocean soon. That will probably cut the African train off and sprout up the EPAC. Don't listen to the models too much right now bc they go by what's happening currently, remember a week ago they were dead long range for Atlantic?. It's a shift that the euro is showing things starting to pop longer range.

Also waters off the Baja are warming up thanks to the lull which may play a role later on.

[Kingarabian]

[somethingfunny]

20% now.

[Yellow Evan]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

How do we get the dry air to leave the EPac? I mean we have no SAL... I wonder why its so dry... is it because the waters are cool?

[Yellow Evan]

How do we get the dry air to leave the EPac? I mean we have no SAL... I wonder why its so dry... is it because the waters are cool?

Well, the climate along the land masses of the EPAC are very dry. As you can see on the left, I live in Nevada, where a ULL move through the state, while firing up the monsoon. I'm guessing that the ULL brought a lot of dry air in the EPAC as well. With that said, the areas affected by NAM seems to be more favorable. There also seems to a be alot of surface troughs of the coast of Mexico this year like 96E bringing of a lot of troughs, which may be prevent development in similar ways to how the NIO is so quite this time of year because of the moonsoon. Idk, this is just a theory.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Guys, I made a thread about this area of disturbed weather.

[Yellow Evan]

Guys, I made a thread about this area of disturbed weather.

I'd rather keep it on here like what we do in the global model thread where we don't make a thr4ead for every "model stomr". I am not a mod though. Either way, nobody posed the TWO so here it is.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[somethingfunny]

This thing's been sitting with a lemonblob on it for several days now and still hasn't been designated Invest 97E yet.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Okay, 97E is here

[Yellow Evan]

And we have Ileana now.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

So, here we go again.

[Kingarabian]

That's going to be our J storm. GFS shows John and then Kristy in the upcoming weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

That's going to be our J storm. GFS shows John and then Kristy in the upcoming weeks.

11 of the last 12 and 13 of the last 15 J EPAC storms has affected land, but I think the streak is ending here in 2012.