ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rjgator]

It is hard to see a center on the Guantanamo Bay Radar. Does anyone have a link that has more up to date Radar info from anywhere in Cuba than the NWS site. Seems pics are about a hour old if I'm converting time right. Is EST 5 hours behind Zulu?

EDT is 4 hours behind, EST is 5.

So which one are we on now. Forgive my ignorance all I know is spring forward and fall back.

[tolakram]

eastern daylight time, until early november. So Z - 4

[HurrMark]

From Jeff Masters:

While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

That could be why the NHC may only be forecasting a cat-One at final landfall (besides the lower than average instability, which he didn't touch).

[Ev1948]

As far up in Sebastian FL, would we need our shutters up? Sebastian is half way down Fl on th east coast. Sebastian has storm watch.

[Portastorm]

As far up in Sebastian FL, would we need our shutters up? Sebastian is half way down Fl on th east coast. Sebastian has storm watch.

Your NWS forecast for Sunday evening suggests wind gusts as high as 50 mph.

[JtSmarts]

Isaac still moving NW or 315 per the new 11 AM advisory, also a little faster at 17mph.

[Meteorcane]

Just woke up (can't stay up to watch the Euro and get up early) Isaac doesnt look great but he is almost through the ost difficult part of his trek and I see the NHC now suspects a hurricane at first us landfall.

[MidnightRain]

Isaac not looking that great, it may have survived Haiti but it took a hit.

[tolakram]

25 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Center appears to be moving inland now.

[cycloneye]

Cat 2 at GOM is now forecast.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Cat 2 at GOM is now forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

And more Tropical Storm watches for florida

[WeatherOrKnot]

Looks like hurricane watch through Broward?

Think it will be extended north to pbc next advisory?

[Aric Dunn]

looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.

[chris_fit]

looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.

Was thinking the same thing. The low at the surface looks really weak and is now inland.

[fci]

Looks like hurricane watch through Broward?

Think it will be extended north to pbc next advisory?

Doesn't look to me like a change in the track; through The Keys still.
Unless Isaac's center tracks over the Southern Peninsula (actually has landfall on the EAST side of the peninsula); I don't see Hurricane force winds reaching past Dade county.
So far, even though many question them consistently; the NHC has been right on target

[sweetpea]

Cat 2 at GOM is now forecast.



And more Tropical Storm watches for florida

I just got put under a tropical storm watch. I have to say I am a little surprised. Didn't think it would affect us as much up here in the Daytona area.

[Aric Dunn]

looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.

Was thinking the same thing. The low at the surface looks really weak and is now inland.

red weakening surface circ. blue mlc if convection builds today with the mlc I think thats where the center may end up reforming/migrating to.

[KQ]

I see they updated the watches and warnings but it doesn't look like they moved the forecast track.......Do they only do that at certain times?

Or did they move track and i just can't tell? That could very well be...

[jlauderdal]

Cat 2 at GOM is now forecast.



And more Tropical Storm watches for florida

I just got put under a tropical storm watch. I have to say I am a little surprised. Didn't think it would affect us as much up here in the Daytona area.

large wind field with this system, i think it will surprise some people on the peninsula

[northjaxpro]

looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.

Was thinking the same thing. The low at the surface looks really weak and is now inland.

red weakening surface circ. blue mlc if convection builds today with the mlc I think thats where the center may end up reforming/migrating to.

I agree with your assessment Aric.