ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HurricaneBelle
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Re:

#3981 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:17 am

KQ wrote:I see they updated the watches and warnings but it doesn't look like they moved the forecast track.......Do they only do that at certain times?

Or did they move track and i just can't tell? That could very well be...


One doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other (the track can stay the same, which it essentially did), as watches are based on a 48-hr lead time and Isaac is 6 hrs closer to the new watch areas than he was the last advisory.
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#3982 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:17 am

Quite possible with such a large intensifying storm in the eastern Gulf that you might have Tropical Storm force winds along the SE and East Central Florida Coast. It doesn't necessarily mean it is coming that way!
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Re: Re:

#3983 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.


Was thinking the same thing. The low at the surface looks really weak and is now inland.



red weakening surface circ. blue mlc if convection builds today with the mlc I think thats where the center may end up reforming/migrating to.


Aric, if that occurs, how do you see that affecting the track?
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#3984 Postby KQ » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:20 am

Thanks for answer HurricaneBelle

By the way.....over 1 inch of rain already up here in Stuart according to the rain gauge in backyard
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#3985 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:21 am

NHC raised the winds to 100mph before landfall, I suspect it'll be around 115mph before all is said and done!
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#3986 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:22 am

difficult to say for sure. it would likely just shift the short term tack slightly farther north to more the upper keys or so. should be and big changes. the ridging is still in place. it may however be delayed somewhat as it re organizes but just have to see how it unfolds.
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Re: Re:

#3987 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:23 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Folks, I am going to have a new kind of forecast I post. it will have three codes.

YELLOW: An upgrade to red is likely.
RED: Winds of 60 or more miles per hour are possible, and or Heavy, Flooding rains, as well as surge.
PURPLE: Winds could exceed 96 miles per hour, with widespread damage expected.

These alerts will be issued per county, or for example, The Western Keys.


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Here is the update. I would love feedback.
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#3988 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:23 am

who has the link to the gitmo radar ?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3989 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:24 am

Bryan norcross facebook...http://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross

For Miami and the entire metro area, be ready for an extended period of very bad weather with winds gusting to hurricane force... likely through Monday.
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Re:

#3990 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:24 am

Aric Dunn wrote:who has the link to the gitmo radar ?


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes
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Re: Re:

#3991 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:24 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:looking very elongated and not sure that center is going to survive. could reform farther north if any deep convection build offshore. the mid level center is already north of the islands while the surface is about to come into cuba. would not be surprised if the center reformed under the mlc later.


Was thinking the same thing. The low at the surface looks really weak and is now inland.



red weakening surface circ. blue mlc if convection builds today with the mlc I think thats where the center may end up reforming/migrating to.

same thinking..

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg193/sc ... es=landing
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Re: Re:

#3992 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:26 am

Frank P wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:who has the link to the gitmo radar ?


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes


thanks... thought it would be a little more revealing. oh well.
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#3993 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:32 am

Dose'nt really have a clear center right now but that's probably because its reforming under the blob of comvection to the west
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#3994 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:32 am

Bear in mind, the disturbance currently in the Florida Straits was never initilized by any of the models. The vort rapidly organized last evening and it is still holding firm in the area currently. I agree with Aric in that this may throw a slight wrench with the models later today.

The vort/trough feature currently over the FL Straits could delay the ridging just a littlle big longer, thus bring Isaac more N/NW to make his first landfall more around the upper Keys area around Key Largo. No matter how it shakes down, significant impacts are going to be felt across the entire peninsula. Isaac has such a huge radius of tropical storm force winds.
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Re:

#3995 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:35 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Dose'nt really have a clear center right now but that's probably because its reforming under the blob of comvection to the west


I think you meant east, but I agree that the cener we've been following is in dissipation mode in Cuba and relocating in the MLC area, which may mean a more northern track for the short term

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Re:

#3996 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:36 am

northjaxpro wrote:Bear in mind, the disturbance currently in the Florida Straits was never initilized by any of the models. The vort rapidly organized last evening and it is still holding firm in the area currently. I agree with Aric in that this may throw a slight wrench with the models later today.

The vort/trough feature currently over the FL Straits could delay the ridging just a littlle big longer, thus bring Isaac more N/NW to make his first landfall more around the upper Keys area around Key Largo. No matter how it shakes down, significant impacts are going to be felt across the entire peninsula. Isaac has such a huge radius of tropical storm force winds.
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Also if that area develops a surface circ of any kind its likely they will interact a Fujiwara or rotate around each other isaac would take a more nw to nnw motion while that would drop to the sw. very interesting.
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Re:

#3997 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:36 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Dose'nt really have a clear center right now but that's probably because its reforming under the blob of comvection to the west


What blob of convection to the west? All the convection directly associated with Isaac is currently on the eastern side and any convection left on the west side is currently dieing...
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Re:

#3998 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:37 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Dose'nt really have a clear center right now but that's probably because its reforming under the blob of comvection to the west



You mean the blob of convection to the east? There is no blob to the west.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3999 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:42 am

the NAM showed 2 lows a few runs ago....hmmmmm...that is an insteresting feature to the NW....looks like its still tilted as Aric stated.

its like it broke off a piece around a broad circulation....talking about that blob....man Isaac just does not want to consolidate and play nice in the sand box!!!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4000 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:45 am

Do you believe Isaac will stay a large storm in the gulf? I mean size and not strength. If it hits in Destin, will we feel it in Biloxi to any serious degree?
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