ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

I have officially given up...this storm has just worn my patience. (And I think I am speaking for everyone.) No one except the NHC really has a clue as to where Isaac is heading and how intense it may be.

At this rate, just die, Isaac. Spare everyone your and further misery. Haiti was enough.

[adam0983]

Does anyone still think that Isaac can ride up the East Coast of Florida?

[Hammy]

By the looks of things, its looking more and more like Ernesto 2006 part 2... it was forecast to become a hurricane and then decided to track up the middle of eastern Cuba and was ripped to shreds, along with wind shear setting in (both are happening here as well)

-personal opinion and not official forecast-

[CourierPR]

By the looks of things, its looking more and more like Ernesto 2006 part 2... it was forecast to become a hurricane and then decided to track up the middle of eastern Cuba and was ripped to shreds, along with wind shear setting in (both are happening here as well)

-personal opinion and not official forecast-

They are????? I think not.

[T'Bonz]

Isaac certainly has a mind of its own.

[mpic]

Has any mention of storm surge been brought up?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Dose'nt really have a clear center right now but that's probably because its reforming under the blob of comvection to the west

What blob of convection to the west? All the convection directly associated with Isaac is currently on the eastern side and any convection left on the west side is currently dieing...

Sorry i meant east

[wxman57]

Do you believe Isaac will stay a large storm in the gulf? I mean size and not strength. If it hits in Destin, will we feel it in Biloxi to any serious degree?

Currently, Isaac isn't a large storm, really. Take a look at the latest HRD wind analysis, indicating 60 mph wind extending only 12 miles NE of the center, but TS winds out to 149nm north of the center. That 150nm wind field is a bit larger than average (120nm). In general, Isaac will be close to average size as far as its wind field.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

[Downdraft]

Just left our local Publix supermarket. The race is on for water. To many people concentrating on track and not the incredibly large tropical storm force wind field with Issac. We are expecting tropical storm conditions in Seminole County Sunday/Monday and we are long way from actual storm itself. The major concern will be the tornado threat currently rated by NWS Melbourne as medium to high.

[northjaxpro]

I have officially given up...this storm has just worn my patience. (And I think I am speaking for everyone.) No one except the NHC really has a clue as to where Isaac is heading and how intense it may be.

This is why I love weather and tracking especially activity in the tropics. It is a constant evolution of change and with the tropics so many variables involved with the formation of tropical cyclones. Yes, it can be maddening often times and you find yourself pulling your hair out, like we have done this year alone with Debby, Ernesto and now Isaac. But, it is a fascinating science and I, like most everyone on here, absolutely love analyzing these cyclones each and every year. So, hang in there LOL.. But on a serious note, take all necessary precautions down there in the southern peninsula. I am not sure exactly where you are in South Florida, but no question substantial impacts from Isaac will certainly be arriving within the next 24 hours there.
_____________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Has any mention of storm surge been brought up?

About 3-4 ft across the Keys, 2-3 ft Miami area. Not very significant for the southern peninsula. If it DOES strike the panhandle as forecast then the surge there could be in the 5-8 ft range. That part of the FL panhandle is not very prone to a large storm surge due to the relatively deep water offshore.

[Downdraft]

Do you believe Isaac will stay a large storm in the gulf? I mean size and not strength. If it hits in Destin, will we feel it in Biloxi to any serious degree?

Currently, Isaac isn't a large storm, really. Take a look at the latest HRD wind analysis, indicating 60 mph wind extending only 12 miles NE of the center, but TS winds out to 149nm north of the center. That 150nm wind field is a bit larger than average (120nm). In general, Isaac will be close to average size as far as its wind field.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

Does the wind field with Issac remind you more of a sub tropical system rather than a purely tropical one?

[ConvergenceZone]

The only part of the NHC discussion I disagree with is where they said little change in strength is anticipated today due to land interaction....I would almost bet someone that the strength will be lower than 60 mph with either the next advisory or the one after that. The fact that it IS going to interact with some land would tell me that it will drop some in strength. If it weakens further, that would reduce the chance of it being a cane near the keys....

[JPmia]

Question/request for G-Cane.. can you keep us up to date on current RI trends and possibility of further strengthening as he moves away from Cuba toward the Keys?

[MiamiensisWx]

I have officially given up...this storm has just worn my patience. (And I think I am speaking for everyone.) No one except the NHC really has a clue as to where Isaac is heading and how intense it may be.

This is why I love weather and tracking especially activity in the tropics. It is a constant evolution of change and with the tropics so many variables involved with the formation of tropical cyclones. Yes, it can be maddening often times and you find yourself pulling your hair out, like we have done this year alone with Debby, Ernesto and now Isaac. But, it is a fascinating science and I, like most everyone on here, absolutely love analyzing these cyclones each and year.

So, hang in there LOL.. But on a serious note, take all necessary precautions down there in the southern peninsula. I am not sure exactly where you are in South Florida, but no question substantial impacts fdrom Isaac will certainly be arriving within the next 24 hours there.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

At this rate, I really do not forsee any significant impacts even in the Keys if the center does not reform over water. I have been concerned for days, but I am already starting to write off the threat to S FL. A middling TS below 50 mph looks most likely to me, and if the center over Cuba predominates, I am not so sure that this system will survive with a strong LLC until it reaches the Gulf. Certainly, a low-end Category 1 system appears most probable. Fortunately, in these cases FL tends to be lucky, and the NWS usually overestimates tornado probabilities unless there is a strong baroclinic component (absent in this case but present during Debby). Significant preparation and all this hype really seem completely unwarranted. I really think a bullet was dodged here, and that the time has come to focus on the aftermath in Haiti.

[fci]

I have officially given up...this storm has just worn my patience. (And I think I am speaking for everyone.) No one except the NHC really has a clue as to where Isaac is heading and how intense it may be.

At this rate, just die, Isaac. Spare everyone your and further misery. Haiti was enough.

And the NHC has done a terrific job of predicting the track!
You wouldn't think it minute to minute as the "experts" (LOL) posting nonstop on S2K react to every wobble and model run to say the NHC is wrong. (I'm referring to the amateurs on the board NOT The Pro Mets).
But, the NHC has gotten it right and I expect Isaac to track across The Keys as a TS, clip SW FL and end up in the general vicinity of Panama City or Destin just like the NHC says and HAS said.

[psyclone]

Has any mention of storm surge been brought up?

About 3-4 ft across the Keys, 2-3 ft Miami area. Not very significant for the southern peninsula. If it DOES strike the panhandle as forecast then the surge there could be in the 5-8 ft range. That part of the FL panhandle is not very prone to a large storm surge due to the relatively deep water offshore.

NHC's Knabb mentioned up to 5-7 feet for the southwest florida coast is possible. that area is surge prone with its shallow water.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have officially given up...this storm has just worn my patience. (And I think I am speaking for everyone.) No one except the NHC really has a clue as to where Isaac is heading and how intense it may be.

At this rate, just die, Isaac. Spare everyone your and further misery. Haiti was enough.

And the NHC has done a terrific job of predicting the track!
You wouldn't think it minute to minute as the "experts" (LOL) posting nonstop on S2K react to every wobble and model run to say the NHC is wrong. (I'm referring to the amateurs on the board NOT The Pro Mets).
But, the NHC has gotten it right and I expect Isaac to track across The Keys as a TS, clip SW FL and end up in the general vicinity of Panama City or Destin just like the NHC says and HAS said.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, yes, and yes...I have never really deviated from the NHC in regard to the track, but rather the intensity, which I think will be much weaker than anticipated. Usually, in the rare event that the professionals are wrong, they usually err on the high side.

[wxman57]

Has any mention of storm surge been brought up?

About 3-4 ft across the Keys, 2-3 ft Miami area. Not very significant for the southern peninsula. If it DOES strike the panhandle as forecast then the surge there could be in the 5-8 ft range. That part of the FL panhandle is not very prone to a large storm surge due to the relatively deep water offshore.

NHC's Knabb mentioned up to 5-7 feet for the southwest florida coast is possible. that area is surge prone with its shallow water.

Possible is one thing, likely is another. An average-sized Cat 1 hurricane striking immediately south of Miami could produce a surge up to 5-7 feet. That's POSSIBLE with Isaac, just not likely given the current forecast track.

[Zanthe]

I don't think it's been brought up; the SPC has a 'Severe' area outlined on Tuesday, for the areas most likely to see tornadoes.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL RELATED TO THE
PROBABLE LANDFALL/INLAND MOVEMENT OF ISAAC ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL OUTER
BANDS/EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL/GA/AL ON DAY
4/TUESDAY...AND A SEVERE RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS
SCENARIO. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAYS 5-6
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY THIS
TIME FRAME REGARDING THE DETAILS.