ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

so...gfs pushed west in the 12z and this east? come onnnnnn

That's what keeps us up all night losing sleep Meriland

yeah, after these funky model runs, I am pretty sure I look something like this

[pgoss11]

HWRF had some improvements in the offseason and has performed a little better I thought, such as running on a 3 km inner nest. Still seems like a pretty unrealistic run in terms of intensity.

But is that track plausible?? Intensity seems unrealistic..

[Jevo]

Def. further East than the op GFS ....Looks Waaaay too strong though.

I believe Wxman57 lumps the HWRF in with the Nam as far as horrible models.

Oh, I do too....

Pfft... what do you guys know with your fancy schooling and professional experience j/k

12z HWRF +84

[deltadog03]

But, with that said....HWRF has done pretty good with this storm so far.

[Aric Dunn]

the track is actually not far off the nhc track it only diverges at the last few points past tampa. nhc track keeps a slightly west component while the hwrf heads straight north.

[ROCK]

Last run the HWRF had a 940mb cane coming ashore...unrealistic from an unrealistic model...the only reason it's still around is because it was supposed to replace the GFDL 5 years ago...but it can't because it's horrible!!!

[meriland23]

Okay okay okay.. we get it HWRF has its issues and we have their route locked.. now lets see what Euro does in ..10 min.

[Aric Dunn]

Last run the HWRF had a 940mb cane coming ashore...unrealistic from an unrealistic model...the only reason it's still around is because it was supposed to replace the GFDL 5 years ago...but it can't because it's horrible!!!

its not horrible nhc uses it quite a bit. if they find it useful its useful. pretty simple.

[meriland23]

Euro hr00

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[meriland23]

wow, 24 hrs ago euro had this current position to a T, even down to the mb almost (998.6 vs 998.0)

[ROCK]

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I think the EURO is going to shift west by a good amount...could be wrong but I am calling my shot before the run.....stuff I am seeing with the other models and the handling of the ridge bridge...


Add 2k disclaimer...on IPhone

[deltadog03]

HR6 Dr. No keeps Isaac offshore. I am curious to see what happens in the 12-36hr time frame. EURO had this almost a W jog during that time...

[deltadog03]

I think the EURO is going to shift west by a good amount...could be wrong but I am calling my shot before the run.....stuff I am seeing with the other models and the handling of the ridge bridge...


Add 2k disclaimer...on IPhone

My guess** is Dr. NO goes a bit E today

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL shifted east from Mississippi/close to NOLA all the way to the Western Panhandle.

[deltadog03]

HR24 its trying to shoot the gap, but still closer to CUBA....its offshore and a little bit north than previous run.

[meriland23]

GFDL shifted east from Mississippi/close to NOLA all the way to the Western Panhandle.

doesn't hwrf and gfdl go hand in hand?

[meriland23]

Euro hr24

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[swbamacane]

Wouldn't it be crazy if the Euro goes east since the gfs went west

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[Blinhart]

So when do the Pro-Mets here expect the NHC to start nudging the 2nd landfall further west to be more in line with the Ensembles and all the other models?

[meriland23]

So when do the Pro-Mets here expect the NHC to start nudging the 2nd landfall further west to be more in line with the Ensembles and all the other models?

As far as I know current 12z models are 2-1 (2 being east shift)