ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3961 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

meriland23 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So when do the Pro-Mets here expect the NHC to start nudging the 2nd landfall further west to be more in line with the Ensembles and all the other models?


As far as I know current 12z models are 2-1 (2 being east shift)


I'm looking at spaghettimodels.com, for all those questioning where I'm getting this information.
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#3962 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

HR48 its Just NW of Key West
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3963 Postby Jag95 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

looks stronger than it did in the last run at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3964 Postby SapphireSea » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

My biggest problem with the EURO runs so far is that it is very determined to sharply turn Isaac 280 WNW almost immediately after initialization with no basis on it. Any opinions on whether it's wrong on this or should we be seeing a pronounced WNW motion soon?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3965 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

GFS ensembles are even further west
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3966 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:01 pm

Euro hr48Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3967 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:03 pm

Well, my gut would be right for once if Isaac ended NGOM landfall. Maybe I should start picking winners in the NFL....naaaa...LOL
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3968 Postby GCRain » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:03 pm

How many versions of these tropical models are there? For example,FSU's GFS model has Isaac making landfall much further than Wunderground's GFS model.Why such a big discrepancy?

Meant to say much further west.
Last edited by GCRain on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3969 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:03 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HR48 its Just NW of Key West


whats interesting is that it took a pretty good turn to the nw to get to that position from 24hr. if that turn happens earlier that would almost be a landfall in florida or the upper keys.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3970 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:04 pm

GCRain wrote:How many versions of these tropical models are there? For example,FSU's GFS model has Isaac making landfall much further than Wunderground's GFS model.Why such a big discrepancy?

Meant to say much further west.


Wunderground has not updated yet.
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#3971 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:05 pm

HR 60 it looks like its really strengthening...and from hr54-60 it moved more NNW to N
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3972 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:05 pm

Can someone please post 12 z GFS ensembles?
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#3973 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:05 pm

at 72hr on 00z euro run it was at 84w and 26n at 993 mb. 48hr on 12z run is 83w and 25n at 985 mb
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Re: Re:

#3974 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:HR48 its Just NW of Key West


whats interesting is that it took a pretty good turn to the nw to get to that position from 24hr. if that turn happens earlier that would almost be a landfall in florida or the upper keys.


Agreed! and todays run doesn't have that funky motion to the W near the keys as yesterdays did
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3975 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:06 pm

12z models...

Image
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#3976 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:08 pm

HR72 its moving NNW making a line towards Pensacola/Destin and strengthening...Lets see if it holds this line.
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#3977 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:10 pm

euro hr 72

Image

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#3978 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:10 pm

The Weakness looks a little more pronounced this run on the euro at H5
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#3979 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:11 pm

that is east of the 00z for sure. not much but very close to just coming in around Apalachicola
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#3980 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:11 pm

this is almost 20mb stronger than last run at its strongest point..
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