ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4081 Postby SapphireSea » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:10 pm

crimi481 wrote:Seems like that ULL to N.W. of Isaac - shredding its N.W. Quad - suckin in some of its energy - then ULL sending energy up to that Growing storm in VA?
Really strange stuff - no? That ULL is unexpected player
Seen here:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash


I don't think the ULL is causing a problem. I think generally a ULL off to the NE causes it to vent off outflow, increasing the ability of the core to generate new convection/vorticity at and from the surface. This is what I understand, a promet would probobly know the real answer.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4082 Postby crimi481 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:12 pm

crimi481 wrote:Seems like that ULL to N.W. of Isaac - shredding its N.W. Quad - suckin in some of its energy - then ULL sending energy up to that Growing storm in VA?
Really strange stuff - no? That ULL is unexpected player
Seen here:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash


Is it possible Issac and that ULL combime to form another hybrid system? Or - do you think the ULL pulls S.W. - leaving Isaac to organize better?
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Re:

#4083 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:you can see the center fully offshore now and becoming better defined pretty quick now. seems its just slightly more northerly component than most of the models right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Not 100% sure of that. loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looking at south moving and north moving clouds inland, plus if center is barely offshore it looks to skip back onshore soon.

Really really not sure. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4084 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:14 pm

If I am not allowed to post this, please remove.
Is this the LLC?

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4085 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:15 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:If I am not allowed to post this, please remove.
Is this the LLC?


That's about where I see it, and moving mostly west, soon to bump over that peninsula.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4086 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:19 pm

tolakram wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:If I am not allowed to post this, please remove.
Is this the LLC?


That's about where I see it, and moving mostly west, soon to bump over that peninsula.


Is that westward motion just a wobble?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4087 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:20 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:If I am not allowed to post this, please remove.
Is this the LLC?


That's about where I see it, and moving mostly west, soon to bump over that peninsula.


Is that westward motion just a wobble?


LOL, well, one reason to listen to the pro's and not me.

Zoomed out loop 30 frame loop, takes a while to load.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Overall movement still looks NW, and from this view the center really does look to be offshore.

RECON will tell us!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4088 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:25 pm

It's just a feeling and is not supported by any fact, but I wouldn't rule out a landfall in the Big Bend area.


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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4089 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:28 pm

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Last edited by Hurricane Andrew on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4090 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:28 pm

its offshore. and the coast is angled almost nw so it may look like its moving more west because of the coast line but its not. its slowly moving away.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4091 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:37 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:It's just a feeling and is not supported by any fact, but I wouldn't rule out a landfall in the Big Bend area.


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I have the same thoughts. Personally I think something between the new EURO and HWRF (Eastern panhandle), and if that is the case, Hurricane watches/warnings would be needed for the west coast.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4092 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:42 pm

looks to be hugging the coast.....whatever center that is still there. would want to see some convection fire off over the center soon....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re:

#4093 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its offshore. and the coast is angled almost nw so it may look like its moving more west because of the coast line but its not. its slowly moving away.


What he said.

It looks like banding features are reforming around the northern portion of the COC as well
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4094 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:44 pm

ROCK wrote:looks to be hugging the coast.....whatever center that is still there. would want to see some convection fire off over the center soon....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


Actually I want it to stay weaker than expected.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4095 Postby MJS1 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:45 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:[quote="SouthFloridawx

I have the same thoughts. Personally I think something between the new EURO and HWRF (Eastern panhandle), and if that is the case, Hurricane watches/warnings would be needed for the west coast.

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I believe there already are....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4096 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:47 pm

ROCK wrote:looks to be hugging the coast.....whatever center that is still there. would want to see some convection fire off over the center soon....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif



optical illusion due to clouds expanding or pulling north quite a bit there at the end of the loop?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4097 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:47 pm

MJS1 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:[quote="SouthFloridawx

I have the same thoughts. Personally I think something between the new EURO and HWRF (Eastern panhandle), and if that is the case, Hurricane watches/warnings would be needed for the west coast.

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I believe there already are....


Current NHC track showing watches and warnings.

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#4098 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:51 pm

recon nearly there. next couple sets of minobs will tell us. well the next set should gives us a good idea.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4099 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:53 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
ROCK wrote:looks to be hugging the coast.....whatever center that is still there. would want to see some convection fire off over the center soon....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif



optical illusion due to clouds expanding or pulling north quite a bit there at the end of the loop?



I dont know...looks stripped and or tilted...to me...
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#4100 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:58 pm

How close are the Cubans going to let us get?
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