ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxsouth]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _mouse.php

My only hesitation is that the bulk of the westward shift is based from guidance based heavily on the GFS (ensembles/bam) and the other least reliable globals (nogaps/canadian). The UKMET and Euro have remained east (along with the GFS-forced GFDL and HWRF -- go figure). I'd be real curious to know what the Euro ensembles show this afternoon.

[southerngale]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

what is that that shoots up to SC?

That model is the CLP5 model that goes to SC. Obviously an extreme right outlier

CLP5 is based on climatology.

[stormreader]

I don't follow every single model run like many of you guys (but sure enjoy you're input). But the most recent trends are again west. What I mean is that this morning earlier runs appeared to show a distinct north turn up into the Fl Panhandle. Now, their seems to be a flattening out with more gradual NW movement in the Gulf. Not good my friends for New Orleans. Can't even rule out a hit further west!! But I think SE La is now becoming a definite target area. The system will parallel the Cuban coast and may continue on a more or less NW course from there into the central Gulf coast (thats what its beginning to look like). And now is the time when the models should begin to get a better handle on things. I think these latest runs are very significant.

[allicat1214]

The upper level environment depicted by the GFS and Euro in the gulf look downright scary for this system. Ideal.

By "scary", do you mean RI scary, Katrina scary, or just general scary?

Apparently there's an anti-cyclone above, and hot water below. Upper and lower all look scary!!!

Grabbed this from another site, but it shows the environment in the Gulf being ideal...

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... _25_12.gif

This image speaks volumes about why you shouldn't just look at the landfall point. If GFS scenario is right would push water on the west bank of New Orleans even though official landfall would be at MS/AL line.

WRONG....sorry! I just realized this show anti-cyclone ..... right side of eye is bringing water forward.

Nevermind.....
*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote

[Ixolib]

....I think these latest runs are very significant.

I'm agreeing with you...

[PerfectStorm]

Do you think the west bias on the models this afternoon is based on a still redeveloping TS weak enough to be steered more at this moment? But that a ramp up or RI could lead to a tighter NW track? My thoughts, amateur opinion dislaimed, is that an RI phase could lead to a much more East or right track. What do members think?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

what is that that shoots up to SC?

That model is the CLP5 model that goes to SC. Obviously an extreme right outlier

That is a climatology model.

I wonder what it is seeing that the NAM isn't? I know it isn't a guidance model, just curious what the difference is.

[LowndesCoFire]

Did I see that correctly, the Euro coming closer to PCB (or was that an older run)?

['CaneFreak]

It's not really a model. It is a climatology and persistence projection...it just tells you the track that the cyclone should take based solely on climatology and statistics from the past so many years...

what is that that shoots up to SC?

That model is the CLP5 model that goes to SC. Obviously an extreme right outlier

That is a climatology model.

I wonder what it is seeing that the NAM isn't? I know it isn't a guidance model, just curious what the difference is.

[southerngale]

When quoting a post with an image, please remove the IMG tags from the quote. It can still be clicked, if desired.

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 4p track



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[PTPatrick]

They appear to be splitting the difference. Either gfs or euro has to give eventually....east or west?

[Blinhart]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

[FutureEM]

Missed Earlier 12z WRF +69:

Big Bend Landfall

[ROCK]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

because you dont disregard the EURO run....they are splitting the difference....its not about the line anyway....its about the cone....

[PTPatrick]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

The most reliable models are all east of mobile bay, gfs ensembles dont really count. They are keeping landfall near destin out of deference to gfdl, hwrf, and euro. Gfs will prolly come back east

[Wx_Warrior]

Beat me to the post Rock. CONE CONE CONE.

[Blinhart]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

The most reliable models are all east of mobile bay, gfs ensembles dont really count. They are keeping landfall near destin out of deference to gfdl, hwrf, and euro. Gfs will prolly come back east

Why would you say the ensembles don't really count? From what I understand they do. If you look at all the models, the majority of the models are west of where the NHC puts it. So I'm just confused.

[Blinhart]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

because you dont disregard the EURO run....they are splitting the difference....its not about the line anyway....its about the cone....

Trust me I know all about the cone, but it also has the effect on which side of the cone you are in on the amount of trouble you might be in. If it is closer to Mobile Bay, then Lake Pontchartrain could get a lot of in flow and cause problems on the North side of New Orleans.

[creole_lady]

I have trouble understanding why the NHC is keeping the cone so far East, when more and more models are showing a landfall around the Miss/Al line.

I agree Blinhart.
That's why a like this forum for information. I'm learning so much. I usually just read the statements but I want to thank everyone for keeping us novices informed. A big Thank You!