ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pgoss11]

Weakened to 45 kts

AL, 09, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 208N, 753W, 45, 1000, TS

I think that was expected. Now if he can get his act together again..

[ozonepete]

Looks like the center will get just enough north of the shore soon to let it really ramp up - you can already see convection firing up close to the center in the northeast quadrant. Also, very importantly, it will get past the big mountains in a few more hours and that will really let it start to strengthen.

['CaneFreak]

Looks like the center will get just enough north of the shore soon to let it really ramp up - you can already see convection firing up close to the center in the northeast quadrant. Also, very importantly, it will get past the big mountains in a few more hours and that will really let it start to strengthen.

Agreed. I think what is going to happen is the llc that is currently moving along the Cuban shoreline now is going to get tugged back under the convection that is now blossoming on the northeast side later tonight. And when that happens, you can bet your hard earned dollar that this thing is going to ramp up again...

[timmeister]

Weakened to 45 kts

AL, 09, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 208N, 753W, 45, 1000, TS

COC seems to have moved back over land.

[cheezyWXguy]

Weakened to 45 kts

AL, 09, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 208N, 753W, 45, 1000, TS

COC seems to have moved back over land.

[img]http://i47.tinypic.com/10xvw9d.gif[/ig]

until it really clears some distance between the coast, it wont really matter if its on or off the coast. That said, conditions do look pretty ripe once it does move offshore. Looks like the entire circulation north of cuba is trying to moisten up, with small dots of convection popping on visible. Its got a loooong way to go, but like I said before, its not wasting any time trying to get there.

['CaneFreak]

Weakened to 45 kts

AL, 09, 2012082518, , BEST, 0, 208N, 753W, 45, 1000, TS

It will be interesting to see if they go with this on the next advisory or not as recon just found some believable mid 50s...I personally think they will go with 55 mph on the next advisory as a blend.

Edited to include min obs to support post:

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201200 2134N 07531W 8432 01488 //// +152 //// 139053 056 051 015 01

[SouthDadeFish]

Doesn't it appear that the convection to the NW of Isaac could eventually feed into Isaac's circulation?

[Aric Dunn]

per recon it has passes that piece of land and is partially back over water. wont strenthen like that

[SouthDadeFish]

A dropsonde recorded 47 knot winds at the surface. Assuming there are slightly higher winds elsewhere, 50 knots could be used for the maximum sustained wind speed in my opinion.

[Jevo]

It still vexes me why Cuba will not let the Hurricane Hunters over their land especially when the information will help them as well. It's not as if they're carrying seal team 6 in the back.

Otherwise everything I'm watching shows me that he's right on track.. At this point though a wobble either way could mean landfall in an island chain or a metropolitan area this time tomorrow

[southerngale]

When quoting a post with an image, please remove the IMG tags from the quote. It can still be clicked, if desired.

[brunota2003]

A look at the Western Hemisphere, with tribute.

[CrazyC83]

A dropsonde recorded 47 knot winds at the surface. Assuming there are slightly higher winds elsewhere, 50 knots could be used for the maximum sustained wind speed in my opinion.

That is correct, as supported by SFMR readings. The pressure is probably 995mb also based on that dropsonde which had 999.

[cheezyWXguy]

per recon it has passes that piece of land and is partially back over water. wont strenthen like that

True, it really needs to push itself fully offshore. The circulation as whole looks much better to me now than it did this morning though. But until it really puts some distance between itself and the coast, we likely wont be seeing anything more than the popcorn convection were seeing at the moment.

[Blinhart]

A lot of those wind readings is with a good rain rate, so we have to take those with a grain of salt. I think the 45 Kt, is pretty close.

[ATCcane]

Looking at a bigger view and not just focusing on the eastern tip of Cuba, there appears to be more of an elongated area of low pressure, that extends from south of the Isle of Youth to around Grand Cayman eastward to Isaac's current location.

[BigEasy]

Been a long time reader of this forum. Lots of good posters, lots of not so good posters. But, everyone has a different level of interest and knowledge. So I have decided to jump into the mix.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



After looking at many of the models and reading the professional mets opinion's and posts, one thing is for certain. I think Isaac is going to be a big rainmaker, if nothing else, just looking at all of the rain and thunderstorms out in front of his path. Wherever landfall is final, there is going to be lots of flooding IMO.

As far as the final landfall location; it has to be somehwere between Mississippi/Alabama state line and Destin.

Just my opinion and not an official forecast, or professional opinion. Refer to your professional local weather forecasters and the NHC for all official warnings and forecasts.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Very nice, brunota. Thank you.

[tropicwatch]

Very nice, brunota. Thank you.

diddo

[JtSmarts]

5PM UPDATE OUT

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5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 21.3°N 76.0°W
Moving: NW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph