ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherOrKnot]

Is this what Joe Bastardi sees off the east coast of Florida between Sept 2nd and 5th? I am on my kindle so can't c/p but it is in the Isaac video he just released that he makes reference to it.

[rainstorm]

Is this what Joe Bastardi sees off the east coast of Florida between Sept 2nd and 5th? I am on my kindle so can't c/p but it is in the Isaac video he just released that he makes reference to it.

when did he release the video?

[WeatherOrKnot]

Weatherbell.com

He just makes a quick reference to it and then goes back to Isaac.

[rainstorm]

ah, i saw it. thats most likely 97L

[Gustywind]

25/0000 UTC 11.4N 27.6W TOO WEAK 97L
24/1800 UTC 12.7N 24.7W TOO WEAK 97L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 242351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N20W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N25W MOVING WNW NEAR 12
KT. THE WAVE/LOW LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
27W-35W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 26W-30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[rainstorm]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

thats the wave still over africa. it appears SAL wont be a problem.

[smw1981]

This would certainly be no good for Florida if it actually makes it all the way over after dealing with Isaac 1-2 weeks before (especially since some of Florida already has saturated grounds!). Hopefully it will go poof, or just be a fish.

[Gustywind]

25/0600 UTC 12.0N 28.1W TOO WEAK 97L
25/0000 UTC 11.4N 27.6W TOO WEAK 97L

[Gustywind]

Remains at 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

looks decent enough...another large circulation that will take time to consolidate.....yippee...

floater is up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2204

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.


Jeff Masters

[Gustywind]

Stays at 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

A very long paragraph on 97L...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED SW OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT.
THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE MONSOON GYRE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC AS INDICATED BY
THE GOES-R PG AIRMASS PRODUCT. HOWEVER...THE GOES-R PG SAL
PRODUCT INDICATED A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST AT SOME DISTANCE
FROM THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WITH SOME OF THE SAL WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS INDICATED
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE WAS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

25/1800 UTC 14.7N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 97L
25/1200 UTC 12.8N 30.4W T1.0/1.0 97L

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is becoming better defined. It should be at 40 or 50% by the 8 PM update but for some reason, it has been at 30% for a very long time, even though at 2 PM today, it was more organized than in the previous updates. Can someone tell me why they're leaving it at 30%?

[Riptide]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is becoming better defined. It should be at 40 or 50% by the 8 PM update but for some reason, it has been at 30% for a very long time, even though at 2 PM today, it was more organized than in the previous updates. Can someone tell me why they're leaving it at 30%?

The GFS and most other global models barely develop this area, mabye they(NHC) are nervous about another "Joyce", transient tropical cyclone. Don't get me wrong, there will be another potential hurricane coming from this area very soon, models like the wave behind 97L.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else notice this is already very likely a TD. impressive circ already established. guess they are busy with Isaac

[Riptide]

anyone else notice this is already very likely a TD. impressive circ already established. guess they are busy with Isaac

This one was quite sneaky, it does look impressive but mabye still too elongated for classification?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

anyone else notice this is already very likely a TD. impressive circ already established. guess they are busy with Isaac

Aric,

was looking at the sat loop. Almost looks as if it already has a clear center just needs a little more storms to work around it.