ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[N2FSU]

I overlaid the new forecast track (blue line) over an aviation sectional, which gives a good closeup view of the projected landfall up in the Panhandle.

[SFLcane]

N and E quad building nicely now...interesting night ahead.

Indeed!

[meriland23]

N and E quad building nicely now...interesting night ahead.

Indeed!

do you have a loop?

[cheezyWXguy]

N and E quad building nicely now...interesting night ahead.

Definitely. Looks like we're in business now, with a small but potent looking hot tower right over the center. Still has a long way to go, but this is a big step in the right direction (or wrong direction if youre in the path!)

[jhpigott]

South Florida Water Management District radar should prove interesting the next few days

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

[orion]

I read back a couple pages but didn't see where anyone mentions the 850 vorticity in the NW Caribbean, I thought I saw where some of the models had like 2 systems until the one north of Cuba took over. probably doesn't mean squat.

I think this is what you're talking about, here is the 850 relative vorticity graphic...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

N and E quad building nicely now...interesting night ahead.

Indeed!

do you have a loop?

[Blinhart]

I read back a couple pages but didn't see where anyone mentions the 850 vorticity in the NW Caribbean, I thought I saw where some of the models had like 2 systems until the one north of Cuba took over. probably doesn't mean squat.

I think this is what you're talking about, here is the 850 relative vorticity graphic...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

So if I read that right, there should be no reason for this to move much more NW but more than like WNW.

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out this very cool image from AMSU at 20:15Z:



You can see the potential for this thing to wrap up quickly once it moves far enough away from Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

nice convection starting grow right on the north side of the center. minimal right now but interesting ..

[Frank P]

nice convection starting grow right on the north side of the center. minimal right now but interesting ..

Looks like a decent outflow for the eastern half as well...

[meriland23]

You sure that isn't just the illusion given by it going from day to dusk?

[Aric Dunn]

Check out this very cool image from AMSU at 20:15Z:



You can see the potential for this thing to wrap up quickly once it moves far enough away from Cuba.

thats kind of scary blood looking... lol

[cheezyWXguy]

You sure that isn't just the illusion given by it going from day to dusk?

Actually it might be, after looking at infrared, the burst i pointed out isn't as cold as I thought it would be. Nonetheless, it is a start, and the fact that we have a convectively active core with a single and apparent center now is more than we couldve said for most of the last 2 days...

[ozonepete]

nice convection starting grow right on the north side of the center. minimal right now but interesting ..

That could be important. With no shear it should stay in place and convection could continue to build around the rest of the center and completely enclose it over the next few hours.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/South_Florida.shtml

These buoy obs are going to prove to be very interesting over the coming days...

[ozonepete]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/South_Florida.shtml

These buoy obs are going to prove to be very interesting over the coming days...

Thanks! Forgot that we have a lot more buoys here to work with.

[pricetag56]

I heard someone mention Issac is moving into an area of high instability that could really aid in intensification. Does anyone think theres a possibilty for mandatory evacuations down the line

[Dean4Storms]

I overlaid the new forecast track (blue line) over an aviation sectional, which gives a good closeup view of the projected landfall up in the Panhandle.

Thanks for that image, between Destin and PCB or roughly over Seaside. About 15 miles due east of me!

[psyclone]

the convective development north and east of the center is impressive. still heavy bands streaming into the Dominican Republic too. this thing may try to ramp up tonight. interesting. On another note, the weather channel's new hurricane expert just said he doesn't expect the cone to change much at 8pm (of course as we know the forecast tracks don't change on intermediate advisories)...let's just hope that was an honest mistake...lol.