ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is on board for LA as well further west by by a 100 + miles or so....like I said I think this will miss left...how far west I think middle LA is not out of the question either....need a EURO run to verify my thinking...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BigB0882]

Thats 3 models into LA now? CMC, GFS AND NOGAPS? I only trust one of them but the more that fall in line the more weight they have. The EURO is very very key tonight.

[bella_may]

NOGAPS is on board for LA as well further west by by a 100 + miles or so....like I said I think this will miss left...how far west I think middle LA is not out of the question either....need a EURO run to verify my thinking...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I hate to use the k word but thats almost the exact same path as Katrina

[ColdFusion]

Shouldnt we be getting a Euro run shortly?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The last few days the 18z models have trended west, just to have the 00 runs trend east. At least the G-IV data has been a nice add each night! A bit concerned though that the storm has kept to teh right side of guidance for a few days now. Hmmm... which model 3 days ago showed the path that Isaac is now taking? Where did that one go in the end? Will also be interesting to see in hindsight which model got the strengthening/intensity right too. -since this storm is sucha great learning experience for so many reasons!

[PTPatrick]

18z hwrf nearing dauphin island at 945 mb, at 66 hrs


Edit make that ocean springs ms at 72 hours

[perk]

Shouldnt we be getting a Euro run shortly?

The next Euro run will be late tonight.

[jinftl]

more like Gustav's track than Katrina...Katrina never did the dance with haiti and cuba like gustav did..

NOGAPS is on board for LA as well further west by by a 100 + miles or so....like I said I think this will miss left...how far west I think middle LA is not out of the question either....need a EURO run to verify my thinking...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I hate to use the k word but thats almost the exact same path as Katrina

[meriland23]

Shouldnt we be getting a Euro run shortly?

euro wont run for another 6 hrs

[Frank P]

more like Gustav's track than Katrina...Katrina never did the dance with haiti and cuba like gustav did..

NOGAPS is on board for LA as well further west by by a 100 + miles or so....like I said I think this will miss left...how far west I think middle LA is not out of the question either....need a EURO run to verify my thinking...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I hate to use the k word but thats almost the exact same path as Katrina

true, Katrina in the sense that it went to the MS/LA line.... but yes you are correct..

[meriland23]

wow... hwrf jsut skip hopped and jumped to the left, ends up in miss

[bella_may]

more like Gustav's track than Katrina...Katrina never did the dance with haiti and cuba like gustav did..

NOGAPS is on board for LA as well further west by by a 100 + miles or so....like I said I think this will miss left...how far west I think middle LA is not out of the question either....need a EURO run to verify my thinking...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I hate to use the k word but thats almost the exact same path as Katrina

I'm talking about as far as landfall goes

[BigB0882]

The last few days the 18z models have trended west, just to have the 00 runs trend east. At least the G-IV data has been a nice add each night! A bit concerned though that the storm has kept to teh right side of guidance for a few days now. Hmmm... which model 3 days ago showed the path that Isaac is now taking? Where did that one go in the end? Will also be interesting to see in hindsight which model got the strengthening/intensity right too. -since this storm is sucha great learning experience for so many reasons!

I agree. I am not buying a west trend until the 0z models show it and ideally I want both the Euro and GFS to show it. My gut tells me we will see the GFS go back East to FL again and the Euro hold steady but having the Euro come West would make for one exciting run of models, wouldn't it?

[BigB0882]

I think the 18z euro comes out in a lil bit

There is no 18z Euro. It only runs 0z and 12z.

[meriland23]

wow... hwrf jsut skip hopped and jumped to the left, ends up in miss

can you post a link?

18z landfall hwrf



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12z landfall hwrf



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[BigB0882]

Which way is the HWRF moving at landfall?

[meriland23]

Which way is the HWRF moving at landfall?

going NW toward W MISS/E LA after landfall..

[Frank P]

that's a pretty good shift west... if the NHC does not shift the cone west a tad later tonight I would summize that they don't have much confidence in this latest back of runs.. but still I would be surprised.. my humble opinion only.. thanks

[cheezyWXguy]

Which way is the HWRF moving at landfall?

going NW toward W MISS/E LA after landfall..

what site is that from?

[BigB0882]

that's a pretty good shift west... if the NHC does not shift the cone west a tad later tonight I would summize that they don't have much confidence in this latest back of runs.. but still I would be surprised.. my humble opinion only.. thanks

This is one of the main reasons I anticipate the NHC updates to the cone. If they don't shift despite some models moving then it tells me the NHC has great reason to disregard those models. If it does shift then it certainly gives credence to their movement.