ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wjs3]

:uarrow: fujiwara? Isn't that what Ike did?

I don't think so, no.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092008_Ike_3May10.pdf

thought ike had multiple vortices/centers

Fujiwhara as I understand it when there are two distinct vortices--not the situation with multiple swirls around a mean low level center (which is very common in developing TCs).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

[brunota2003]

Mark is on his way down to Florida right now, for anyone interested.

[Steve H.]

This is far from a disorganized mess IMO. There is clearly a defined center and it seems to be getting better organized by the minute.

[wjs3]

Not that I know of. Ike had multiple concentric eyewells if thats what you're referring to. And if youre talking about why Ike dove south toward Cuba in the open atlantic, that was because the ridge built back in to the north and filled in the weakness that was trying to pull Ike into a recurve. As erratic as Ike's track and strength were, I dont think it had anything to do with the fujiwara effect.

Iono, a lot of people are comparing based on the sheer size. Ike really never got its act together like it was supposed to.. it was just a inevitable waiting game, this was due to its size and the... multiple concentric eye wells? I guess what I am getting at is, what are the chances of that happening to Isaac IYO.

There's no way to tell that. Eye wall replacement cycles (which include concentric eyewalls) are not possible to forecast. If Isaac becomes a mature Hurricane, ERCs may be the dominant force in strengthening or weakening. But forecasting them before they happen? No skill in that, as I understand it.

[Ivanhater]

What a joke...seriously, this is a disorganized mess.....They close schools in some of the counties in S. Fl....please...... This is an over-hyped blob.....C'mon folks!

Are you kidding me?

No I'm not.....yellow journalism at it's finest

You are taking the express route to a suspension here...consider this an official warning.

[wjs3]

This is far from a disorganized mess IMO. There is clearly a defined center and it seems to be getting better organized by the minute.

My two cents, for what they are worth is that we are somewhere between the two. "Disorganized mess" is unfair, as there is a loose center of circulation and there is convection trying to organize around that center. "Clearly defined center" is also unfair as the last recon found a pretty diffuse center, that center is located within a larger cyclonic gyre and most of the convection was displaced from the center. Getting better organized? Yes. Look at the forecasts, though--not really a hurricane--even a cat one--for quite some time. And I will note that this system has been forecast to be a hurricane for days now but never made it.

This all might change, but I wouldn't call it either a mess nor a thing of beauty right now.

My opinion, for what it's worth.

[Hurricane Alexis]

At the current speed it should be crossing the southern keys tomorrow early in the afternoon.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

thought ike had multiple vortices/centers

Fujiwhara as I understand it when there are two distinct vortices--not the situation with multiple swirls around a mean low level center (which is very common in developing TCs).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Fujiwara occurs in all things that rotate which are connected through a medium or physical force... for instance pressure or gravity( although not a medium)... it is related to equal and opposite forces but much more complicated... similar to the spinning kids do when they hold their hands and spin around... of course way more complicated ..

[HurricaneRobert]

I think Ike had a lot of dry air and a large size that kept it from organizing. It was a powerful storm when it hit the mountains of Cuba, so it was like a big pileup at a fast speed that takes a lot longer to clean up.

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Latest satellite data show significant convection developing over the LLC due to the diurnal maximum...as winds were 50 kt/60 mph just a few hours ago, I see no reason as to why, with the center solidly north of Cuba, Isaac won’t reach at least 60 kt/70 mph as forecasted by the NHC by the time it strikes the middle Keys late tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[Portastorm]

This is far from a disorganized mess IMO. There is clearly a defined center and it seems to be getting better organized by the minute.

For folks in S. Florida......Daily thunderstorms will be worse than this

This is not a forecast, just an opinion....Sorry Michael

In the words of White Sox TV announcer Hawk Harrelson, "he gone."

[Buck]

I would imagine we will be dealing with a much larger storm in the gulf than we had in the Caribbean... the land disruption and shear seems to have only increased the envelope size of the storm. Once convection gets solidly rebuilt over the center... I don't see why it wouldn't expand out pretty quickly.

[tolakram]

If someone posts something outlandish please use the (!) Report button rather than responding. Makes it easier to take care of things. Thanks!

[KWT]

I think Ike had a lot of dry air and a large size that kept it from organizing. It was a powerful storm when it hit the mountains of Cuba, so it was like a big pileup at a fast speed that takes a lot longer to clean up.

Like spread out its energy over a large area rather than put into one concentrate eyewall .

Plenty of time for changes but once an inner core forms its got good.conditions aloft so it should strengthen. A major looks more than possible given it has 3 days from now on

[jinftl]

From radar loop link, we have some small bands spiraling into south florida now

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[ozonepete]

In the words of White Sox TV announcer Hawk Harrelson, "he gone."

Thank you. We don't need that at a time like this.

[Listeri69]

Can anyone give me a longitude/latitude bearing to where the center appears to be right now it would be much appreciated thank you

[Maven2379]

Hi everyone! I've lurked here for a while, joined today! I am from Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. I see some of the spaghetti models shifted back over to us! I hope on the next run this changes!

Nice to "meet" everyone!

[Hurricane Alexis]

From radar loop link, we have some small bands spiraling into south florida now

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

They're just weak showers with a light breeze.

[jinftl]

Location: 21.7N 76.7W

Can anyone give me a longitude/latitude bearing to where the center appears to be right now it would be much appreciated thank you