ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blinhart]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

Ok this is not the spaghetti model of the GFS ensembles, this is a spaghetti map of all the models, and there are only a couple of them hitting the PanHandle of Florida, the majority of them are now in between New Orleans and Mobile Bay. So that is significant change in all the models. Yes I know it is of the 18z and not the 0z or 12z, but it is starting to show impact in about 3 days, so they have to be more reliable.

[BigB0882]

Wow that is really tight consensus with the exception of the Euro (which hasn't run yet) and the NHC (which hasn't updated, has it?). Makes you realize what a west shift we have seen. I don't see how you can blame ALL of that on it being 18z.

[deltadog03]

I would imagine they will shift a little bit west....maybe pns/mobile.....Remember these models can swing back east as well. Just because we have a shift west, doesn't mean it can't go back tonight/tomorrow. I know the Euro has not been on its super game this year, BUT it still is the BEST model when it comes to verification...remember that...

[KWT]

Very true deltadog, if the models are to error it'll be to the right normally. As it stands the models are pretty aggressive now and produce a decent hurricane.

Worrying times for the gulf, will we breAk our major drought...

[Dean4Storms]

What a Spread!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif

[jlauderdal]

here is the full HWRF run.. Still an initial landfall in the Upper Keys South FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

it would be a big victory for hwrf if the system goes through the middle to upper keys, it sniffed this out a few days ago

Agree,

seems as most our more focused on the last land fall verses the first US land fall.

yep but there are more people on here from the gulf coast and more importantly the second landfall looks to be much more intense..its all good, been a very interesting storm to track...modeling has been a struggle to say the least and this big spread on the gulf coast has alot of people really nervous

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I dont like that sharp turn that models are smelling out. This cone is going to shift back east a fifty too a hundred miles IMO.

[Sabanic]

No doubt about that "J"




Agree,

seems as most our more focused on the last land fall verses the first US land fall.[/quote]

yep but there are more people on here from the gulf coast and more importantly the second landfall looks to be much more intense..its all good, been a very interesting storm to track...modeling has been a struggle to say the least and this big spread on the gulf coast has alot of people really nervous[/quote]

[capepoint]

Don't forget that there was a bunch of fresh dropsonde data collected today that should be included in the next runs. The Oz models may change some so don't put all of your apples in the cart just yet....

[Meteorcane]

Don't forget that there was a bunch of fresh dropsonde data collected today that should be included in the next runs. The Oz models may change some so don't put all of your apples in the cart just yet....

The GIV data seems to have consistently favored farther east tracks in the 0z runs, we'll see if that trend continues.

[meriland23]

This is the current loop, don't pay attention to the sudden burst of vibrant color, this is due to nightfall

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What a mess. I think i will wait 24 more hours before i start tieing up stuff

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This is the current loop, don't pay attention to the sudden burst of vibrant color, this is due to

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Is the COC back over water finally?

[meriland23]

This is the current loop, don't pay attention to the sudden burst of vibrant color, this is due to

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Is the COC back over water finally?

has been for quite some time

[SootyTern]

[/quote]Agree,

seems as most our more focused on the last land fall verses the first US land fall.[/quote]

yep but there are more people on here from the gulf coast and more importantly the second landfall looks to be much more intense..its all good, been a very interesting storm to track...modeling has been a struggle to say the least and this big spread on the gulf coast has alot of people really nervous[/quote]

Lots more discussion relevant to the first US landfall in the Isaac current observations thread; with SOFLA impacts in 24 hours the models don't seem as significant as 'looking out the window' and seeing what the storm is actually doing now

[stormreader]

This is the current loop, don't pay attention to the sudden burst of vibrant color, this is due to nightfall

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Okay this is supposed to be a model discussion so I won't comment about storm structure again in this thread. But thats a good shortwave image. The storm is not the mess you might think. You can clearly see the small wraparound beginning right at the center as it is now coming off the Cuban coast.

[capepoint]

Very true deltadog, if the models are to error it'll be to the right normally. As it stands the models are pretty aggressive now and produce a decent hurricane.

Worrying times for the gulf, will we breAk our major drought...

Not just worrisome for the gulf. With some models showing the left-overs reaching as far as eastern NC, the risk of significant flooding is elevated all over the southeast. I know that eastern NC has been deluged over the past 2 weeks, portions of I-95 and other roads here were closed due to flooding as late as this morning. With the memory of Floyd still fresh, we in eastern NC are watching with interest. Even though some other areas are extremely dry, catching a ton of rain at once is not the preferable method to end a drought either. This has the potential to be a big financial hit, not just from landfall damage, but widespread flooding.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank P]

extrapolating that track, if it were to continue in that general direction, looks to be heading for the mid to lower Keys... my unofficial opinion ...

[Tropics Guy]

Much better organized than just a few hours ago, sure to be some pressure drops.

TG

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest 00Z guidance is tightly clustered on NOLA!

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