Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[hurricanes1234]

There's a small tropical wave emerging from west Africa. Here's the thread for it.

[galaxy401]

Does anyone have the SAL map that they can post? I wonder how moist the environment is.

[rainstorm]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=

i dont think sal should be a big factor

[Hyperstorm]

The following is NOT official. Refer to the NHC for official information.

Don't look now, but the models are developing this one in a BIG way, especially the GFS. The GFS says "Watch out islands and east coast of the US..." Of course, it's a long way out in terms of track, BUT I personally do believe that this one is going to develop. Could be Kirk or Leslie depending on how fast the other one NW of it develops. I believe this one will the next BIG thing we'll be monitoring after Isaac is gone.

I saw this year being similar to 2004 where El Nino developed so late that it didn't affect the heart of the season. It looks like that is happening...

[cycloneye]

This is now Pouch 20L

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 082500.txt

[galaxy401]

Is this the one the models develop into a monster down the line? If so then this needs to be watched. Eyes will probably shift to this storm once Isaac is gone.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Looking much better in the 2 PM outlook, just a matter of time before it's designated as an invest.

http://imageshack.us/photo/photo/259/twoatl6.gif/

Please tell me that this is the way to post an image. If it's not, then you're free to correct it.

One more question - how do you post an image onto Storm2k without using the IMG tags at the beginning and end of the link? Because if you only post the link, the viewer must click the link to view the image, instead of it being there already on the post.

[cycloneye]

Looking much better in the 2 PM outlook, just a matter of time before it's designated as an invest.

http://imageshack.us/photo/photo/259/twoatl6.gif/

Please tell me that this is the way to post an image. If it's not, then you're free to correct it.

One more question - how do you post an image onto Storm2k without using the IMG tags at the beginning and end of the link? Because if you only post the link, the viewer must click the link to view the image, instead of it being there already on the post.

[img][/img] insert link between the two imgs and that is it.

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks, cycloneye! I don't know what I would have done without your help.

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not looking very good now - convection is decreasing and overall structure is worse than today. Still a high chance this forms, though.

[somethingfunny]

Crossposted from the Global Model Runs thread....

GFS has been pretty consistent on a NE Islands/Puerto Rico TS/hurricane strike around Labor Day, and while the 12z Euro recurved it before the islands, the 0z Euro also hit the NE Islands with a weak TS before it heads for Bermuda as a strengthening system. As for what the GFS shows past this, the past four GFS solutions have varied wildly. All intensify it past the islands, but one heads for Bermuda and Newfoundland, one heads between Bermuda and the US before nailing Nova Scotia, one hits the Dominican Republic and Turks&Caicos before recurving off towards the Canadian Maritimes, and one rides north of Puerto Rico into the Bahamas before striking South Carolina...

There's nothing definite about the long-range GFS, but agreement is coming together on another storm threatening the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in a week's time from P20L.

[ouragans]

I've received information from Western Africa (Niger, Benin, Nigeria) stating more than 50 people total had died in the last 5 days due to heavy rains and flooding. The last event was in Senegal yesterday, where Dakar was motly under water. The road to the Int'l airport is still closed due to floodings.

I crossed information from the GFS and from Windguru, and Guadeloupe might be one of the targets once again by Sep. 2. You may imagine how I may feel very concerned because back to school in the French school system is on September 3rd

[ouragans]

10% at 06z

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 17W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 28W. PART OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS RELATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[ouragans]

TWD 06z

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 17W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. PART OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[chrisjslucia]

I guess this is Pouch 20 being monitored by the Montgomery Research Group.
They have these models on site from GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS





Another Lesser Antilles storm?

[stormandan28]

This could be trouble down the road we just have to continue to watch it.

[otowntiger]

This could be trouble down the road we just have to continue to watch it.

Yes. I am already looking forward to something beyond Isaac. I've had enough of him, This one could be another long tracker, the questions are (as with all of these systems of course) is how far does it come before it re-curves, if it re-curves and will it be intense? I will be watching now that I'm very dialed into the tropics now thanks to Isaac. (I think that means I'm addicted to this site. )

[Blinhart]

This one scares me, because if you remember your history of the last 7 years, first was Katrina that hit near New Orleans then you had Rita hit near Sabine Pass, then you had Gustav hit near New Orleans then you had Ike hit near Sabine Pass. I know it isn't exactly where they made landfall, but close enough. Now we have Isaac which should hit near New Orleans, and it looks like this might become Kirk. A lot of ifs but it could do like the other (same sex name) storms and make landfall somewhere around Sabine Pass.