ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

0z NAM +19 (Queue dramatic music)

[SunnyThoughts]

At some point the models stop doing the windshield wiper thing and settle into a pretty tight consensus. I am not saying that this will happen here but if the Euro comes on board with the westward track tonight you can pretty much bet that they will be close. If on the other hand, they shift back east then we will continue to lose sleep and continue to have to wait.
Tim

I agree 100% Tim. Once the models stop moving east to west and back again (and they should fairly soon), it will mean they are in agreement and then I may get a little worried. But at this point, I am watching the trend, not the 00z or the 18z, but the overall picture.

I should note that I already put on my big girl briefs and battled the crowds at Wal-Mart, so I am ready either way.

lol was a mad house wasn't it? I did that last night..phew Well now we are all prepared, just sitting back and waiting to see where the roulette wheel stops. GFS runs and Euro tonight will be important...but then again, so will tomorrow's runs as well. I honestly think it will probably be sometime late tomorrow..or Monday before we have a really clear idea of where final landfall will be..within 100 miles of where landfall will be anyway.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

At some point the models stop doing the windshield wiper thing and settle into a pretty tight consensus. I am not saying that this will happen here but if the Euro comes on board with the westward track tonight you can pretty much bet that they will be close. If on the other hand, they shift back east then we will continue to lose sleep and continue to have to wait.
Tim

I agree 100% Tim. Once the models stop moving east to west and back again (and they should fairly soon), it will mean they are in agreement and then I may get a little worried. But at this point, I am watching the trend, not the 00z or the 18z, but the overall picture.

I should note that I already put on my big girl briefs and battled the crowds at Wal-Mart, so I am ready either way.

Actually they were in very good agreement the other day when euro shifted towards p'cola. In fact consensus was extremely tight and was like that for a good 24 hrs. Now seem to be shifting back west again. That is for the final landfall.

[Jevo]

0z NAM +36

[smw1981]

At some point the models stop doing the windshield wiper thing and settle into a pretty tight consensus. I am not saying that this will happen here but if the Euro comes on board with the westward track tonight you can pretty much bet that they will be close. If on the other hand, they shift back east then we will continue to lose sleep and continue to have to wait.
Tim

I agree 100% Tim. Once the models stop moving east to west and back again (and they should fairly soon), it will mean they are in agreement and then I may get a little worried. But at this point, I am watching the trend, not the 00z or the 18z, but the overall picture.

I should note that I already put on my big girl briefs and battled the crowds at Wal-Mart, so I am ready either way.

Actually they were in very good agreement the other day when euro shifted towards p'cola. In fact consensus was extremely tight and was like that for a good 24 hrs. Now seem to be shifting back west again. That is for the final landfall.

Yeah, definitely. But now we are only 3 days out, so I will be putting much more confidence in a "trend" now!

[Jevo]

0z NAM +36

[HurrMark]

So far it looks somewhat west of the 12Z and 18Z...of course it's the NAM.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will the strength of Isaac have any influence on future track. I know models are now showing the possibilty of a much stronger storm and was curious if it did get to a high end 2 or possibly 3 would that translate to a more northward track. Or does that not imply in this scenario with the high vs trough battle. Just curious what exactly should be looking at to try and figure this thing out.

[Jevo]

0z NAM +48

[Frank P]

Looks west and has plenty of gom to work with as well, see where it finishes up with this run!

[smw1981]

Again tonight, thank you for posting the NAM pics Jevo! (even if it is "just" the NAM!)

[HurrMark]

By 48-54 hours, it appears to be about the same as the 12Z...perhaps a tad north. So maybe this is part of the "windshield wiping" we have been talking about.

[Jevo]

0z NAM +60

[Hurricane Cheese]

Latest 00Z guidance is tightly clustered on NOLA!

Link?

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/4677/aal092012082600trackear.png

Wow, just...wow....big time cluster on NOLA for the 00z's

[galaxy401]

That will be a nightmare for New Orleans if this is true. Not good at all...

[Jevo]

0z NAM +66

[Hurricane Cheese]

That will be a nightmare for New Orleans if this is true. Not good at all...

My question...will the NHC address this in the 11 pm discussion. When will they start to sound a larger alarm for LA...?

[Sabanic]

Close to the coast approaching from SE to NW would cause major problems from the Panhandle to LA

That will be a nightmare for New Orleans if this is true. Not good at all...

[Jevo]

0z NAM +72

[HurrMark]

More or less consistent with 12Z with a western Panhandle landfall near PCB...of course, the NAM was the one model that really didn't shift at 18Z, and as mentioned, it is the NAM.