yeah, I was kinda wondering the same thing..... Seems I've heard it takes 72 hours to evacuate the city???Hurricane Cheese wrote:My question...will the NHC address this in the 11 pm discussion. When will they start to sound a larger alarm for LA...?
ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Re:
0 likes
Betsy '65, Camille '69, Frederic '79, Elena '85, Georges '98, Isidore '02, Katrina '05, Isaac '12, Nate '17
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
-
Stormlover2012
- Category 1
- Posts: 262
- Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:03 am
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
one thing that is scary about the nam, it has been east the whole entire time while other models keep shifting west, it seems like its a tad behind and then finally catches up to them like a day before landfall
0 likes
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z NAM +78
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
Sabanic
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
- Location: Mobile, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
In the 10PM discussion, once again, the NHC doesn't have much confidence in their landfall projection. This is going to make for a LONG nex 3 days for the entire GC
0 likes
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re:
galaxy401 wrote:No shift to New Orleans yet. Wonder if they're shifting slowly or they're not sure yet.
Models will move back and forth. It's best to make slow moves until certain it's a real trend or not. The last set of runs, many based off the GFS, might have been bad data, or might have been the start of a trend. If the trend continues overnight then by morning the track will probably shift again.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
CYCLONE MIKE
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Yep here is part of long range discussion...THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC
DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS
SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER
OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This could get very interesting for the N.O. areas and south. Supposed to have 72hr evac plan. They cant sit on this too much longer before begin having to make decisions.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
So here's what I saw in that run... again the NAM should only be used for synoptics.. Which it is very good at..
At 0z +66 a weakness started to form in the ridge
At 0z +69 An alley started to open
At +79 the weakness in the ridge was still apparent allowing what the NAM perceived as the storm into the Panhandle of FL
At 0z +66 a weakness started to form in the ridge
At 0z +69 An alley started to open
At +79 the weakness in the ridge was still apparent allowing what the NAM perceived as the storm into the Panhandle of FL
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: Re:
Ixolib wrote:yeah, I was kinda wondering the same thing..... Seems I've heard it takes 72 hours to evacuate the city???Hurricane Cheese wrote:My question...will the NHC address this in the 11 pm discussion. When will they start to sound a larger alarm for LA...?
That is correct. It does take 72 hours.
0 likes
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
0z NAM Loop.. Ahh the trough digging in toward the end of the run... Thats going to be the kicker.. It all depends on timing
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I think the NHC is right in not making a large shift in their track.Tonights 0z run of the GFS and the Euro will determine whether they make a further west shift or not.
0 likes
-
wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CYCLONE MIKE
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Jevo, could you post a pic or two of what the 18z gfs and another more western model show as far as ridge and weakness compared to the same time frame as the 72 hr NAM
0 likes
-
Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
-
deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
Re:
Jevo wrote:0z NAM Loop.. Ahh the trough digging in toward the end of the run... Thats going to be the kicker.. It all depends on timing
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
CORRECT!!! That weakness looks stronger this run...GFS and EURO will be interesting...
0 likes
-
Nikki
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
- Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)
Re:
wx247 wrote:The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
Yes, it runs at 10:30 CDT
0 likes
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
-
Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
- Posts: 364
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
So if we have a potential deepining cylcone entering the gulf, with half of the global models pointing toward within say 50 miles of your city, what would you do if you were the emergency manager in NOLA tonight? Seems that A LOT is going to depend on what happens here overnight with the next model run and the strength of Isaac as he enters the Keys...correct?
0 likes
"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
-
wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Nikki wrote:wx247 wrote:The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
Yes, it runs at 10:30 CDT
I thought so. Usually it has started by now, I thought. I am always on Twisterdata getting the info for chases and such. This will be a critical run for the GFS, but especially the EURO overnight. Jim Cantore's tweets this evening have been kind of ominous.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests