CYCLONE MIKE wrote::uarrow: Yep here is part of long range discussion...
THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC
DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS
SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER
OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This could get very interesting for the N.O. areas and south. Supposed to have 72hr evac plan. They cant sit on this too much longer before begin having to make decisions.
Agreed. The NHC HAS to at least be giving them their best guesses privately tonight to the emergency planners. I'm sitting here watching the Saints pre-season game, wondering how many people in the Superdome known the growing danger that could be coming toward them...
j/k
