ATL: ISAAC - Models

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BigB0882
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#4381 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:06 pm

HurrMark wrote:Looks like landfall is finally made at 102 hrs near Lake Charles...


Umm, no. It landfalls in SELA and ride onshore across the state with the last image I've seen having it over Lake Charles.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4382 Postby Sabanic » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:06 pm

Sleep well peeps & see ya tomorrow.
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#4383 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:06 pm

0z GFS +108 (Here come the Texans)

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4384 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 pm

The Weather Channel finally changed their cone.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4385 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 pm

Forgot to add our local news actually broke in programming with the GFS run. Cant rememebr them ever doing that before. Think some eyes are starting to open up around here :eek:
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4386 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:08 pm

HurrMark wrote:
Sabanic wrote:Wonder where it goes from here on this run?

HurrMark wrote:81 hours, nearing the coast around central LA. Probably not landfall yet.


Still offshore at 90 hours, moving due west, heading for Sabine Pass. Still looks like a little ridging to the north.


Do you have a link to that map?
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#4387 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 pm

I am so so so glad I went to Walmart tonight for some supplies. I am not going to miss fighting the crowds tomorrow when people wake up in a panic. I have mentioned this storm to everyone who will listen and they ALL looked at me like I was dumb and said "ITS GOING TO THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION!" That is all they have heard about it...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4388 Postby perk » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 pm

At hour 108 the center is about to cross the Texas/Lousiana border.
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#4389 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 pm

I would disagree with those saying +102

GFS 0z +72 image seems to be showing the coast line splitting the center in half

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4390 Postby StormClouds63 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 pm

WWL radio out of NOLA just mentioned during Saints postgame radio coverage of the GFS shift and awaiting European run later tonight. Wow.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4391 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 pm

@ Big B

Dont think they will really start the panic until Jindal starts issuing mandatory evacs for Grand Isle and lower SE LA. THEN it will turn into a mass panic :lol:
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#4392 Postby SeminoleWind » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 pm

I sure hope the next G-IV data that is collected will put this flip flopping with these models to bed
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4393 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:12 pm

Isaac misses shortwave on GFS. Very well could happen.
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Re:

#4394 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:13 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:I sure hope the next G-IV data that is collected will put this flip flopping with these models to bed


I said earlier that i wouldn't be so sure of that. Remember when the euro flipped east and the consensus was somewhere around 95% or more? Now look at what is going on a few days later.
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#4395 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:13 pm

Looking at the 500mb map of the GFS 0z run

@72 you can definitly see the white line depicting the coast of SE LA splitting the center in half which would constitute landfall.... but its still 72 hours and a wobble here or there puts it in a different state

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4396 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:14 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:WWL radio out of NOLA just mentioned during Saints postgame radio coverage of the GFS shift and awaiting European run later tonight. Wow.
They're probably checking in on S2K for all the details!!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4397 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:14 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Dont think they will really start the panic until Jindal starts issuing mandatory evacs for Grand Isle and lower SE LA. THEN it will turn into a mass panic :lol: Dont think they will really start the panic until Jindal starts issuing mandatory evacs for Grand Isle and lower SE LA. THEN it will turn into a mass panic :lol:


Hopefully they will start stating voluntary evacuations are suggested for Venice, Grand Isle, and all the areas South of New Orleans, so the high ways won't be too congested for when the other evacuations are started.

I'm sure all the helicopters are flying non-stop to oil rigs right now in the Gulf to evacuate them, that is always a crazy situation, and with the uncertainty they could be evacuating a lot of the rigs, which will cause gas prices to go up.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4398 Postby MidnightRain » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:15 pm

I'd like to see a better initialization before I buy into this run.
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#4399 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:16 pm

Ok.. next up is the HWRF, then the Euro... We just had a squall come through with 38mph gusts here in Northern Broward County FL... Man Isaac has a long reach... we're still 18 hours away from 1st CONUS landfall
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#4400 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:16 pm

Rock do you have any comments on what just happened...I live in Port Arthur, Tx
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