ATL: ISAAC - Models

[smw1981]

I thought the GFS was not well regarded when it came to tropical systems.

Oh it is now..used to not be so great, but is definitely one of the top models now. Most people watch the GFS and the EURO. EURO is the most accurate 3-4 days out..

[sphelps8681]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

Thanks alot. If you get off for any length of time it seems there are 4 or pages to go through. Teenager does not like to wait for dinner.

[KimmieLa]

Glad I made my Wallyworld run this morning. GFS is a little scary this run, but, I am not panicking yet because the models could change faster than you can shake a stick. Preparation is the key.

Thanks for all the wonderful comments.

I am not a met, have no idea what I am saying, seek professional help.

[Senobia]

Animated 0z GFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

*Are links ok? Seems some are, some not. If not, sorry, don't post them enough to know - delete for me if needed.*

[thatwhichisnt]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=L

[Senobia]

seek professional help.

HA! Imma have to if these models keep on with their westerly jag. A lot of us will. That 0z GFS....MAN!

[perk]

I am trying to wrap my brain around this gfs run...It does what the euro did from a couple of days ago....Its hard to ignore multiple runs of it being further west. Tonights 00z EURO will be telling. I do find the almost due west movement that the GFS does from hour 12-30 *ish* interesting. I am curious to see how the gfs shoves this west, while the euro brings it north. The synoptic setup is nearly identical on the 2 models. The gfs doesn't "technically" connect the weakness even though its further south with the trof swinging through. The euro does...I am not saying euro is right, before I get flamed!!! BUT I AM saying that the spread btwn the 2 models are significant and the synoptic setup they are showing is not really different. So, is the GFS right? well, it damn may be...its been very persistant, for 3 runs in a row now. EURO had a run east today...does that continue? IDK...I would have to say I would lean on a split btwn the 2 and say somewhere near Biloxi looks likely.....

GFS is up first....

What if the Euro repeats that Thursday run.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

EURO:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[southerngale]

Animated 0z GFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

*Are links ok? Seems some are, some not. If not, sorry, don't post them enough to know - delete for me if needed.*

This is the models thread. Model links are fine, welcomed.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[thetruesms]

I am trying to wrap my brain around this gfs run...It does what the euro did from a couple of days ago....Its hard to ignore multiple runs of it being further west. Tonights 00z EURO will be telling. I do find the almost due west movement that the GFS does from hour 12-30 *ish* interesting. I am curious to see how the gfs shoves this west, while the euro brings it north. The synoptic setup is nearly identical on the 2 models. The gfs doesn't "technically" connect the weakness even though its further south with the trof swinging through. The euro does...I am not saying euro is right, before I get flamed!!! BUT I AM saying that the spread btwn the 2 models are significant and the synoptic setup they are showing is not really different. So, is the GFS right? well, it damn may be...its been very persistant, for 3 runs in a row now. EURO had a run east today...does that continue? IDK...I would have to say I would lean on a split btwn the 2 and say somewhere near Biloxi looks likely.....

GFS is up first....

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3206 ... 12ztue.gif

EURO:

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/2125/eurotue12z.gif

I dare say, it's starting to remind me a bit of Debby, in regards to being under a hair trigger of either being caught underneath a ridge, or wriggling north.

[StormClouds63]

If it were to verify, latest GFS track ... not exact, but fairly close to where Gustav made landfall back in 2008. With that storm, there was also a prediction of a westward drift once inland.

[pricetag56]

As much as people might not wanna believe it a katrina esque senario setting up here?

[deltadog03]

I am trying to wrap my brain around this gfs run...It does what the euro did from a couple of days ago....Its hard to ignore multiple runs of it being further west. Tonights 00z EURO will be telling. I do find the almost due west movement that the GFS does from hour 12-30 *ish* interesting. I am curious to see how the gfs shoves this west, while the euro brings it north. The synoptic setup is nearly identical on the 2 models. The gfs doesn't "technically" connect the weakness even though its further south with the trof swinging through. The euro does...I am not saying euro is right, before I get flamed!!! BUT I AM saying that the spread btwn the 2 models are significant and the synoptic setup they are showing is not really different. So, is the GFS right? well, it damn may be...its been very persistant, for 3 runs in a row now. EURO had a run east today...does that continue? IDK...I would have to say I would lean on a split btwn the 2 and say somewhere near Biloxi looks likely.....

GFS is up first....

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3206 ... 12ztue.gif

EURO:

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/2125/eurotue12z.gif

I dare say, it's starting to remind me a bit of Debby, in regards to being under a hair trigger of either being caught underneath a ridge, or wriggling north.

You could be right....IF** that is right, the "bust" potential is VERY high

[smw1981]

We should start seeing images from the EURO in about 25 minutes, correct?

[SunnyThoughts]

We should start seeing images from the EURO in about 25 minutes, correct?

yeah, something like that I believe.

[Stormlover2012]

where is the gfdl run and hwrd and cmc

[South Texas Storms]

We should start seeing images from the EURO in about 25 minutes, correct?

First image comes out in about 35 mins.

[Jag95]

Just something else to chew on, I read this in the Mobile NWS discussion regarding the 18z run of the GFS. Of course it didn't change the 0Z run, but...

"SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A TRUER OBSERVATION."

[BigB0882]

I guess I can make it for the Euro then it is bed time. Why do I have this feeling that the Euro is gonna leave us all pulling our hair out and stick to its guns with a Florida final landfall? lol

[smw1981]

We should start seeing images from the EURO in about 25 minutes, correct?

yeah, something like that I believe.

Thanks! I figured if I'm this close to it, I might as well stay up for it. haha. If it was an hour, I was going to bed!

[Clint_TX]

The hwrf is horrible for NO