ATL: ISAAC - Models
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LowndesCoFire
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Jag95 wrote:Just something else to chew on, I read this in the Mobile NWS discussion regarding the 18z run of the GFS. Of course it didn't change the 0Z run, but...
"SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A TRUER OBSERVATION."
Interesting...so the GFS may have a wrench in the gears on this run?
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Hurricaneman
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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:I guess I can make it for the Euro then it is bed time. Why do I have this feeling that the Euro is gonna leave us all pulling our hair out and stick to its guns with a Florida final landfall? lol
especially if it ends up being east of its 12z position, going against the grain.
If I'm a betting man though, I think the 0ZEURO will be west towards Mobile
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Re: Re:
smw1981 wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:smw1981 wrote:We should start seeing images from the EURO in about 25 minutes, correct?
yeah, something like that I believe.
Thanks! I figured if I'm this close to it, I might as well stay up for it. haha. If it was an hour, I was going to bed!
Same thing here. I was thinking of going to bed, because if they all start showing Louisiana, I'm going to have a long few days ahead of me.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormlover2012
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
For what it's worth, the Canadian suggests Houma/Morgan City...984mb... but I can't find a pic just read it on another site
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The 0z GFS ensembles is mirroring the Op with SE LA landfall and skirting west along the coast also.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z HWRF INITIALIZED
0Z HWRF +18
0Z HWRF +24 (INITIAL CONUS LANDFALL)
0Z HWRF +18
0Z HWRF +24 (INITIAL CONUS LANDFALL)
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Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
HWRF would be a scary scenario seems too bullish on intensity (almost undergoes and is down to ~970 mb pressure tomorrow). Then hits LA as a presumably major hurricane.
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Jevo
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0Z HWRF +36
0Z HWRF +48
0Z HWRF +60
0Z HWRF +48
0Z HWRF +60
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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0Z HWRF +72
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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0Z HWRF +84
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Ok that makes the GFS, HWRF, CMC all hitting around Grand Isle or a little West, if the EURO shows the same thing could we see the NHC shift the cone to at least Biloxi the next time they update the cone?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormlover2012
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
well by these models it seems like a west trend lets see what the big euro will show
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Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Anyone know what the 00z UKMET showed? It was one of the bastions of recurvature into FLorida
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deltadog03
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wxwatcher1999
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What motion does the hwrf have at landfall..does it go west like the gfs?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
TWC stated that the EURO doesnt't come out till 3am Eastern. So is it 3am Eastern or 2am Eastern?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormlover2012
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