ATL: ISAAC - Models

[PTPatrick]

It's very high stakes as well, I mean a tiny change upstream is meaning the difference between Morgan city and gulf shores on all these models. Nola has to start moving today. NHC has to pulling their hair out with the 11 am advisory...as municipalities need time, and they expect fairly settled forecast In This time frame....not, it could go to Texas still. This is reaking of Gustav

[HurrMark]

Hmmm...at 75 hours it actually buckles back to the west a bit...closer to NO.

[BigB0882]

Well the NAM isn't West with many of the others but it IS further West than it has been the last few runs and might continue to inch that way?

[Jevo]

12z NAM +78

[HurrMark]

Landfall near BIX. At 00Z and 06Z, it was the FL/AL border. Much further west (yes, it's the NAM, but it continues the trend).

[BigB0882]

Moving West between 72 and 78. I see the weakness but I guess nothing is there to pull it through? I try not to look at placement but I can't figure out why the NAM would shove it west in those 6 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

This really is a very hard forecast....IF** that weakness opens and "catches" Isaac, then it will be east, but for now most models *gfs based* are not showing that happen...Very tough forecast.

it will catch it if it can deepen more into the 500mb range thats where the weakness is. right now its mostly to shallow to feel the weakness.

[HouTXmetro]

where was NAM BEFORE the last run?

[HouTXmetro]

where was NAM BEFORE the last run?

[ROCK]

It's very high stakes as well, I mean a tiny change upstream is meaning the difference between Morgan city and gulf shores on all these models. Nola has to start moving today. NHC has to pulling their hair out with the 11 am advisory...as municipalities need time, and they expect fairly settled forecast In This time frame....not, it could go to Texas still. This is reaking of Gustav

reminds me of Gustav....somewhat....I think that is about as far west as I would go with it for now....but the trend is west and the NHC needs to adjust their track....today should narrow this down and resolve the issues up stream...

[HurrMark]

Now from 75-84 it actually skirts the coast from BIX to NO. That would be terrible.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +84



Full Run Loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

This is what it's like to watch discussion of the NAMs storm track and not the synoptics

[Kitrin]

I noticed that the pics of the NAM used the 500mb steering currents. Do most hurricanes follow that steering or is it dependent on intensity of the hurricane. Can anyone give me an idea of which currents to watch if the storm is simply a tropical storm vs. a minor/major hurricane?

[BigB0882]

It's very high stakes as well, I mean a tiny change upstream is meaning the difference between Morgan city and gulf shores on all these models. Nola has to start moving today. NHC has to pulling their hair out with the 11 am advisory...as municipalities need time, and they expect fairly settled forecast In This time frame....not, it could go to Texas still. This is reaking of Gustav

reminds me of Gustav....somewhat....I think that is about as far west as I would go with it for now....but the trend is west and the NHC needs to adjust their track....today should narrow this down and resolve the issues up stream...

Rock, do you mean the NAM is as far West as you would go or are you talking about the models as a whole? Meaning Central LA is about as far West as you would go? I thought you were predicting more West shifts in your drunken return from the bar Although I suppose predicting the models will show more West shifts is not the same as saying YOU think it will go West.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

where was NAM BEFORE the last run?

The NAM is vitually worthless. We are like junkies when there is a storm nearby. "Give me a model.....any model."

[Janie2006]

The distance from the FL/AL line to Biloxi, that's about 80 miles isn't it? Just trying to work out a couple of things in my head with this run.

[Steve]

Lmao bigb. Most of us old timers learned tricks from Joe b back when he was free for several years. In certain situations, you can look at weather in other parts of the globe to get insight on what happens elsewhere. Since this is the model thread I will only give you one example. In weak enso (neutral, -/+) you can often look to wpac typhoons to see how they react, and they will sometimes telegraph what happens in the western Atlantic 6-10 days later. Japan represents +/- north Carolina. If you see a recurve east of Japan, often there is east coast troughiness a week later. Alternately, if a storm hits and continues w or NW, you will most likely see ridging in the Atlantic in that following week to ten days. There are numerous 'teleconnections' with varying degrees of reliability. But this one where storms go in behind Korea (which often equates to Florida) was what I was talking about. /back to models

[HurrMark]

The distance from the FL/AL line to Biloxi, that's about 80 miles isn't it? Just trying to work out a couple of things in my head with this run.

Roughly as the crow flies...maybe 90.

[Jevo]

where was NAM BEFORE the last run?

The NAM is vitually worthless. We are like junkies when there is a storm nearby. "Give me a model.....any model."

I would agree on storm track, but I'll put it up against any model when it comes to forecasting the synoptic environment.

[RL3AO]

Remember guys this is for model runs and discussion. Almost anything to do with watches/warnings and the NHC forecast needs to be in the main discussion thread.