ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

they are under the center which would explain why it is barely blowing there

It's actually been like that though for the last several hours, as I've been watching the cam off and on....

At least we've dodged 1 bullet so far, as many of us thought a hurricane would be churnig through the keys by now....

[Hurricane Alexis]

Miami AFD has said we should go into a lull of activity later this afternoon and that can clearly be seen on radar.

[galaxy401]

Are there any recent examples, of storms that didn't reach hurricane strength until they entered the gulf, and then blew up into a major destructive storm? Rita doesn't count since it was Cat 1 before it got to the gulf.

Bret of '99 and Opal of '95.

Except Bret hit a sparsly populated area so the damage wasn't that high.

[ConvergenceZone]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

I noticed that too. The center isn't that far away from Key West, but by watching that cam, you realize that there just isn't much in the way of winds with this tropical storm. Life goes on down there just like normal.

Sombrero key has been reporting 50 mph sustained winds >60 mph gusts have been felt in coastal Miami-Dade/Broward I wouldn't say no winds.

You know that I think about it, perhaps that area is just sheltered from the higher winds due to buildings/structures etc.... So perhaps we aren't seeing the full affect of how the winds really are....I'm going to keep an eye on that cam though and see if anything changes.

I think 65 mph within the next 6 hours and then 75mph within the next 12.

[psyclone]

I hope the NHC cleans up their watches/warnings with the next advisory. we have a lot of coastal areas under "legacy" warnings that were issued when the track was farther east that are not likely to verify and should be discontinued... like the TS warnings around my area (tampa bay) and points north toward the big bend. it appears highly unlikely these areas will experience sustained TS winds IMO. And of course the hurricane warnings should be dumped in south florida too and replaced with TS warnings.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthernBreeze]

You know that I think about it, perhaps that area is just sheltered from the higher winds due to buildings/structures etc.... So perhaps we aren't seeing the full affect of how the winds really are....I'm going to keep an eye on that cam though and see if anything changes.

I think 65 mph within the next 6 hours and then 75mph within the next 12.

Not a lot of "High Rise" buildings there though

[wxwatcher1999]

I think the upper Texas coast needs to be in the watch area...does anyone else agree?

[Recurve]

I wouldn't be too sure about no warning for Tampa area. Sustained tropical storm force winds are certainly possible in Tampa Bay area. When the storm is way north of us I'll relax. If it moves a little less west than forecast, the NE and SE quads will impact here.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bella_may]

Joe Bastardi thinks this will be a cat. 4 storm

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Convection blowing up fast!

[stormhunter7]

think the next dropsonde will be important... waiting on the data

Time: 18:46:30Z
Coordinates: 24.0167N 81.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,440 meters (~ 4,724 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.8 mb (~ 29.32 inHg)

[hurricaneCW]

Isaac has scary potential once he gets further into the gulf. I could see Isaac rapidly exploding into a major hurricane, maybe a Category 4? However, given Isaac has struggled all his life, it seems less likely.

[tailgater]

I hope the NHC cleans up their watches/warnings with the next advisory. we have of coastal areas under "legacy" warnings that were issued when the track was farther east that are not likely to verify and should be discontinued... like the TS warnings around my area (tampa bay) and points north toward the big bend. it appears highly unlikely these areas will experience sustained TS winds IMO. And of course the hurricane warnings should be dumped in south florida too and replaced with TS warnings.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The Hurricane watch I'd agree with but wind field is huge and likely to expand when you start getting onshore winds they likely will be TS strenght.

[stormhunter7]

Also, did any body see the small votice in radar image on Key West in last our.. it rotated out the the NW around the coc?

[Bruton]

Is the map showing how far TS winds spread wrong? I mean nowhere in Florida do we see sustained TS force winds. So why in the world does the map say that they extend so much?

[galvestontx]

:suprised:

I think the upper Texas coast needs to be in the watch area...does anyone else agree?

[cheezyWXguy]

Are there any recent examples, of storms that didn't reach hurricane strength until they entered the gulf, and then blew up into a major destructive storm? Rita doesn't count since it was Cat 1 before it got to the gulf.

Bret of '99 and Opal of '95.

Except Bret hit a sparsly populated area so the damage wasn't that high.

Katrina. It was a hurricane when it hit the east coast of florida, but it came off as TS.

[psyclone]

Is the map showing how far TS winds spread wrong? I mean nowhere in Florida do we see sustained TS force winds. So why in the world does the map say that they extend so much?

Good question. don't we see this all the time? i think the map is the MAX extent of the windfield and is geared toward a marine environment. But i agree that the windfield estimates are consistently overcooked. In TS Debby Lakeland Florida was painted in the orange TS windfield and their winds were arount 10-15 mph. I see this on a regular basis.

[Hurricane Cheese]

@BigJoeBastardi

Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare New Orleans with track like Ivan. Pick your poison



So what's it gonna be everyone?

[ObsessedMiami]

A bit surprised that the local CBS met here in Miami basically said its over for SFL. He said the gap in the precipitation is "basically permanent" . He also said the tornado threat is almost over also. Seems a bit early to say that with the center still south of Miami's latitude. I think it was Jeff Beradelli.