ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[amawea]

:suprised:

I think the upper Texas coast needs to be in the watch area...does anyone else agree?

Not yet, but I would think that if it keeps it's current course that by Monday morning (12Z) that it will be extended to High Island.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormhunter7]

HERE WE GO... Splash Location: 24.02N 81.69W
Splash Time: 18:49Z

992mb (29.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) air temp 27.8°C (82.0°F) dwpt 26.8°C (80.2°F) wind dir 230° (from the SW) wind spd 6 knots (7 mph)

[cheezyWXguy]

Isaac has scary potential once he gets further into the gulf. I could see Isaac rapidly exploding into a major hurricane, maybe a Category 4? However, given Isaac has struggled all his life, it seems less likely.

Conditions have never been ideal for Isaac in the past, and when they seemed to be, he was undergoing serious structural changes. This wont be the case now, and really the only thing I can think of that would slow or stop it from getting to major status is its rather large size, and the fact that heat potential in the gulf isnt overwhelming. Its certainly not at the levels seen as Katrina passed over the loop current, but atmospheric conditions do look rather good, despite less than average instability.

[Ptarmigan]

I think the upper Texas coast needs to be in the watch area...does anyone else agree?

I think the entire Gulf Coast should keep an eye.

[psyclone]

A bit surprised that the local CBS met here in Miami basically said its over for SFL. He said the gap in the precipitation is "basically permanent" . He also said the tornado threat is almost over also. Seems a bit early to say that with the center still south of Miami's latitude. I think it was Jeff Beradelli.

Isaac has consistently generated large bands well east of its center throughout its life so i think that's a premature conclusion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneWarning92]

In all honesty South Florida has been very lucky these past 7 years or so. The gulf states have seen way more activity than us here in Florida.
Where i live, it's been pouring from time to time but nothing out of the ordinary really. Some wind but no tropical storm force. Indeed, once again we spared another bullet.

[stormhunter7]

Pressure in VDM is 992mb... winds haven't came up yet.. but it should be reflected within a few hours, if the pressure continues to drop.

Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 18:46:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°01'N 81°43'W (24.0167N 81.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the S (174°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,369m (4,491ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (249°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 4° at 41kts (From the N at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the WSW (249°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)

[Hurricane Cheese]

@JimCantore

Sticking around Tampa through @SNFonNBC duty with @NBCSports then driving overnight to the northern Gulf for my meeting with #Isaac


Gotta think Cantore will be heading to NOLA...

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is this lull in activity in the SE coast temporary or permanent?

[ObsessedMiami]

A bit surprised that the local CBS met here in Miami basically said its over for SFL. He said the gap in the precipitation is "basically permanent" . He also said the tornado threat is almost over also. Seems a bit early to say that with the center still south of Miami's latitude. I think it was Jeff Beradelli.

Isaac has consistently generated large bands well east of its center throughout its life so i think that's a premature conclusion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Phil Ferro said break for a couple of hours then heavy rain bands later this evening for SFL and Rick Knabb confirmed it but Knabb said then far Eastern side is spottier but still full of rain even up into Central Florida

[TwisterFanatic]

Yea, the winds will catch up with the pressure sooner rather than later.

[ConvergenceZone]

HERE WE GO... Splash Location: 24.02N 81.69W
Splash Time: 18:49Z

992mb (29.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) air temp 27.8°C (82.0°F) dwpt 26.8°C (80.2°F) wind dir 230° (from the SW) wind spd 6 knots (7 mph)

Yep, wind increases usually follow pressure drops, so perhaps within 6 hours, could be up to 65 or 70 mph...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I think the upper Texas coast needs to be in the watch area...does anyone else agree?

I don't think so, yet. It is still too far away. Maybe tomorrow morning if the model runs keep shifting west.

[stormhunter7]

HERE WE GO... Splash Location: 24.02N 81.69W
Splash Time: 18:49Z

992mb (29.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) air temp 27.8°C (82.0°F) dwpt 26.8°C (80.2°F) wind dir 230° (from the SW) wind spd 6 knots (7 mph)

Yep, wind increases usually follow pressure drops, so perhaps within 6 hours, could be up to 65 or 70 mph...

1709z was 996mb.... 1846z is 992mb... i don't think current AFRecon will make another pass, they have been out there a long time, they got a long flight back to KAFB and should reaching the end of there trip and should be turning home soon.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Joe Bastardi thinks this will be a cat. 4 storm

JB also, thought it was going to be a cat 5 in NC yesterday, didn't he? Guess we shall see.

[Wx_Warrior]

State of emergency declared for Jefferson Parrish. NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu will hold press conf at 2:45p. (per NOLA.com)

[Countrygirl911]

Manditory evacuations for the campers and tourest of Grand Isle and then tomorrow at 9AM for the people who live there also the St. Charles Parish has canceled school for Monday, Tuesday and wendsday

[cycloneye]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Storm is steadily getting better organized. Good central dense overcast, poleward outflow, and evidence that the equatorward outflow is trying to establish itself.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

[tailgater]

This has got to be one of the largest storms entering the GOM in awhile, hopefully that will keep it from spinning up to quickly. NE winds in the BOC?

I can't tell that the intensity makes much of a difference in it's path judging from the models, which don't really split until late Monday early Tuesday, which is problematic if evacuations are needed.

_________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.