ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Aric Dunn
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#4861 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:20 pm

so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.
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#4862 Postby thatwhichisnt » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.

How far east are we talking?
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#4863 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:23 pm

Then how do you explain the models (HWRF) who really bomb this out but still show it heading NW to Louisiana? Why aren't they heading more N and/or NE?
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Re: Re:

#4864 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:24 pm

thatwhichisnt wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.

How far east are we talking?



the euro, ukmet the eastern models.
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Re:

#4865 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:24 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Then how do you explain the models (HWRF) who really bomb this out but still show it heading NW to Louisiana? Why aren't they heading more N and/or NE?


Cause the weakness doesn't dig down far enough to pick it up
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#4866 Postby weatherSnoop » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:25 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Then how do you explain the models (HWRF) who really bomb this out but still show it heading NW to Louisiana? Why aren't they heading more N and/or NE?


No one can explain the HWRF :D
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#4867 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:25 pm

With you Aric...was thinking earlier the gfs night be west because it's doesn't see as strong a system(i know gfs strength isnt a big deal) but seems in this case it could effect track.
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#4868 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:26 pm

I think the euro will fall into place with euro...it didn't bend NE last run
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ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4869 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:32 pm

kind of cool... 8-)



Image

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Re:

#4870 Postby Senobia » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:33 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:I think the euro will fall into place with euro...it didn't bend NE last run

:?:
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#4871 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:34 pm

I assume they meant the Euro will fall in line with the GFS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4872 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:34 pm



Are those ensembles going all the way down to matagorda bay?


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4873 Postby karenfromheaven » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:42 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:


Are those ensembles going all the way down to matagorda bay?

Yes, and notice the cluster of ensembles landing in the vicinity of the last Euro run.
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#4874 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:43 pm

18z nam showing the weakness...lifts it toward Pensacola...but don't focus on landfall, focus on it seeing the weakness. It goes slow so the steering could just be weak up there all together...definateky not ejecting it north
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Re:

#4875 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:45 pm

PTPatrick wrote:18z nam showing the weakness...lifts it toward Pensacola...but don't focus on landfall, focus on it seeing the weakness. It goes slow so the steering could just be weak up there all together...definateky not ejecting it north

did the nam shift east?
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#4876 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:45 pm

18z NAM shows the weakness at +51

Image
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#4877 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:47 pm

18z NAM +54

Image

18z NAM +66

Image

18z NAM +72

Image
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Re:

#4878 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.


Aric, I've appreciate your no nonsense approach to this so far. What is the trough currently looking like and is it currently moving? I'm not sure where to find loops that show it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4879 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:49 pm

I have little faith in what the Nam spits out.
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#4880 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:50 pm

18z NAM +78

Image
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