ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:12 pm
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.
How far east are we talking?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Re:
thatwhichisnt wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.
How far east are we talking?
the euro, ukmet the eastern models.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 264
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am
Re:
BigB0882 wrote:Then how do you explain the models (HWRF) who really bomb this out but still show it heading NW to Louisiana? Why aren't they heading more N and/or NE?
Cause the weakness doesn't dig down far enough to pick it up
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- weatherSnoop
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 702
- Age: 62
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:06 pm
- Location: Tampa, FL
- Contact:
Re:
BigB0882 wrote:Then how do you explain the models (HWRF) who really bomb this out but still show it heading NW to Louisiana? Why aren't they heading more N and/or NE?
No one can explain the HWRF

0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 264
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am
I think the euro will fall into place with euro...it didn't bend NE last run
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 264
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ROCK wrote:kind of cool...![]()
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/5453/ellipses201208260609l.gif
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Are those ensembles going all the way down to matagorda bay?
*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- karenfromheaven
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 171
- Age: 71
- Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:45 pm
- Location: North Naples, FL
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxwatcher1999 wrote:ROCK wrote:kind of cool...![]()
[ img]http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/5453/ellipses201208260609l.gif[/img]
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Are those ensembles going all the way down to matagorda bay?
Yes, and notice the cluster of ensembles landing in the vicinity of the last Euro run.
0 likes
Re:
PTPatrick wrote:18z nam showing the weakness...lifts it toward Pensacola...but don't focus on landfall, focus on it seeing the weakness. It goes slow so the steering could just be weak up there all together...definateky not ejecting it north
did the nam shift east?
0 likes
- Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
18z NAM shows the weakness at +51


0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
- Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
18z NAM +54

18z NAM +66

18z NAM +72


18z NAM +66

18z NAM +72

0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:so after a little analysis.. here is the DL.. the euro is showing a turn because the 500 mb vorticity is more pronounced than the gfs based models and thus is feeling the weakness. if this does decide to intensify it is quite likely the models will come back east.
Aric, I've appreciate your no nonsense approach to this so far. What is the trough currently looking like and is it currently moving? I'm not sure where to find loops that show it.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
- Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
18z NAM +78


0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests