ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the weakness opened wider on that run and it turned ne... hmm

[Jevo]

I have little faith in what the Nam spits out.

As you shouldn't when it comes to forecast track... But the synoptics are better than the big 2s any day

[Jevo]

18z NAM +84



18z NAM Full Loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[LSU2001]

funny thing about that NAM run is how it makes landfall and then just stops and maybe moves a bit east. Maybe it is showing the ridge blocking the north or northeast movement.
Tim

[TwisterFanatic]

I have little faith in what the Nam spits out.

As you shouldn't when it comes to forecast track... But the synoptics are better than the big 2s any day

Well, that is debatable. Anything outside of 24HR's on the NAM is pretty much worthless.

[bucman1]

Aric,hope u are well. If track comes back east,will that change the effects in Tampa?

[wxwatcher1999]

What's bad is the models are taking so long to come to agreement which delays evacuation orders

[bella_may]

looks like a slight shift east of the previous run for the NAM

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,hope u are well. If track comes back east,will that change the effects in Tampa?

today will likely be the worst of.

[Wx_Warrior]

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[Aric Dunn]

" IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK."

from the discussion

[Jevo]

I have little faith in what the Nam spits out.

As you shouldn't when it comes to forecast track... But the synoptics are better than the big 2s any day

Well, that is debatable. Anything outside of 24HR's on the NAM is pretty much worthless.

As you said.. it's debatable

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model ... rification

[jes]

Isn't that exactly where Katrina came in?

[caneman]

Looks like a swing back East will be likely. Still thinking no further West than Pensacola. Just my opinion of course.

[bella_may]

Looks like a swing back East will be likely. Still thinking no further West than Pensacola. Just my opinion of course.

can you explain your reasoning?

[Comanche]

Isn't that exactly where Katrina came in?

Click on the "5 day cone/warnings" and slow it a bit. This has quite a few similarities to forecasting and track changes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

[gulfcoastdave]

" IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK."

from the discussion

Aric Dunn...with the above quote and what I have read about the uncertain track , is there becoming a posibilty of landfall moving east of Miss ?

I know we all follow the the cone not just the line but the models have been all over....trying to sit here in the panhandle trying to figure what needs to be done

any thoughts would be great...will the models have a better idea by tomm AM...time is starting to run short

[caneman]

Looks like a swing back East will be likely. Still thinking no further West than Pensacola. Just my opinion of course.

can you explain your reasoning?

The models have swung back and forth. Looks like an East trend is likely again from the NHC discussion on the GFS and Euro model. Further, I'm guessing it will get stronger which would be more influenced by the trough. Again, my opinion only.

[Senobia]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

[Aric Dunn]

" IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK."

from the discussion

Aric Dunn...with the above quote and what I have read about the uncertain track , is there becoming a posibilty of landfall moving east of Miss ?

I know we all follow the the cone not just the line but the models have been all over....trying to sit here in the panhandle trying to figure what needs to be done

any thoughts would be great...will the models have a better idea by tomm AM...time is starting to run short

yes quite possible the ukmet and the euro and cmc are all just about there..