ATL: ISAAC - Models

[TwisterFanatic]

" IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK."

from the discussion

While that is true, the ensembles, all except two are in Louisiana or Mississippi. The control track went WAAY west.

[bella_may]

" IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK."

from the discussion

Aric Dunn...with the above quote and what I have read about the uncertain track , is there becoming a posibilty of landfall moving east of Miss ?

I know we all follow the the cone not just the line but the models have been all over....trying to sit here in the panhandle trying to figure what needs to be done

any thoughts would be great...will the models have a better idea by tomm AM...time is starting to run short

yes quite possible the ukmet and the euro and cmc are all just about there..

The Nam is as well

[Ntxw]

The GFS ensemble members tracks

[TwisterFanatic]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

http://i47.tinypic.com/155jvw1.gif

The EURO pretty much follows the UKMET, that is the only reason the NHC still has the cone in Florida at all right now, at least.

[Portastorm]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

http://i47.tinypic.com/155jvw1.gif

I would say two reasons:

1) They mention that the Euro and GFS operational runs are west of the majority of GFS/Euro ensembles
2) They never swing the cone wildly in one direction or another. They are progressively adjusting it within reason.

[gboudx]

Isn't that exactly where Katrina came in?

Katrina came in from a different angle and made 3rd landfall a little east of there closer to Bay St. Louis.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro Ensemble means is a bit west compared to OP and doesn't move north like the op after landfall

[Wx_Warrior]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

http://i47.tinypic.com/155jvw1.gif

Take away the BAMMS and NHC isn't the outer.

*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote

[SunnyThoughts]

GulfcoastDave...if you read this post...and you haven't gassed up your vehicles yet. Do so NOW, stations around the area are running out of gas really quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

the nws melbourne office wrf model ... shows a likely panhandle or Mississippi hit after you extrapolate.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/arw9_cz.php

[Jevo]

For everyone asking why NHC doesn't move the cone here or there faster or slower, or find themselves 2nd guessing the NHC's thinking when it comes to jumping on certain model conclusions I would invite them to google "Vulnerability Metrics of Hurricane Forecast Accuracy" and also google the phrase "NHC Path of Least Regret"

It may answer a lot of questions and help you understand the thought process of Sr. NHC forecasters.

[Wx_Warrior]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

http://i47.tinypic.com/155jvw1.gif

The EURO pretty much follows the UKMET, that is the only reason the NHC still has the cone in Florida at all right now, at least.

^^^Euro follows UKMET? News to me.

[Senobia]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

http://i47.tinypic.com/155jvw1.gif

Take away the BAMMS and NHC isn't the outer.

Even so, there will still be 5 models to its left and only 1 to its right.

*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote

[Senobia]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

2) They never swing the cone wildly in one direction or another. They are progressively adjusting it within reason.

Right.

I was just wondering if maybe they were seeing something that hasn't been said yet or that I missed.

[Ntxw]

I know we don't like the 18z runs but for the purpose of comparison, here it goes.

12hrs not much change

[Ntxw]

24hrs heading NW

[Portastorm]

Why is the NHC projected path one of the eastern outliers?

2) They never swing the cone wildly in one direction or another. They are progressively adjusting it within reason.

Right.

I was just wondering if maybe they were seeing something that hasn't been said yet or that I missed.

Dunno. Maybe they're giving more weight to the Euro and to the fact that the GFS op run earlier was to the west of most of its ensemble members.

Capt. Obvious here but truth be told, they (NHC) have one very, very difficult challenge in this forecast. You have two globals showing different landfalls. While the so-called consensus of ensemble members ebbs and flows with each run cycle, there still is no clear-cut option. You have billions of dollars of industry in the path of the storm and, more importantly, millions of people. Yeah ... I'd say they're earning their pay right now.

[Ntxw]

36hrs still heading NW towards Mississippi delta

[Ntxw]

48hrs just south of Grand Isle/Houma off the coast.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yep. GFS doesn't budge.