ATL: ISAAC - Models

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wxwatcher1999
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Re:

#4921 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:48 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Yep. GFS doesn't budge.


Does it still head west?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4922 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:48 pm

Comparing the 18z GFS at 48 hrs vs. the 12z GFS at 54 hrs, the 18z looks a little faster with the speed of the storm and the center of circulation is a little to the northwest of what the 12z showed.
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Re: Re:

#4923 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Yep. GFS doesn't budge.


Does it still head west?


Yep
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#4924 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

60hrs parallels the coast of LA heading west/wnw near Morgan City

Image
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#4925 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

How many runs of the GFS have shown a Louisiana solution now? Four?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4926 Postby Waterman1971 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

These are Rita (left), Katrina (center), and Isaac's projected path.


[url][URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/196/katuc.jpg/]Image[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/url]
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Re:

#4927 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:60hrs parallels the coast of LA heading west/wnw near Morgan City

http://i45.tinypic.com/nwwy1f.gif


That looks to heading to Texas


*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4928 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:51 pm

the 18z gfs usually doesn't change too much from 12z to 18z. will have to wait till 00z. One thing is for sure, these models sure can be stubborn sometimes. :)
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#4929 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

Image
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#4930 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

18z GFS looks like landfall south of Houma then moves through Morgan city up to Lafayette. Very similar to Gustav's track just a touch further south.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4931 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

drifts west the trof didnt pick it up....steering collapses to some extent but the ALT ridge still enough to drift it west so far...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4932 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:53 pm

that is a bit further west than I care to like.....didnt expect that far left...
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#4933 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:53 pm

The 18z GFS from yesterday was the first to really move westward into Louisiana which started a major shift west in many models. I wouldn't consider it 'junk' like many say.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4934 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:55 pm

Maybe about 50-100 mile shift to the right so that instead of staying just offshore Louisiana it moves just inland.

18z
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=078

12z
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=084
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Re:

#4935 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4936 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:56 pm

well most of the GFS ensembles are tightly packed now in LA so this op run makes since in that respect.
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Re: Re:

#4937 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:58 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.



A little wobble and it will be over mine!
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#4938 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:59 pm

If you look at it on a large scale, it's really interesting to see how the Euro and GFS have neatly swapped places in terms of Isaac over the last several days. The Euro went from the western solution to an eastern one and the GFS did the opposite.
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#4939 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:01 pm

gfs looks quite a bit weaker. it needs to slow down alot.
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Re: Re:

#4940 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:01 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.

Me too Blinhart! Not many people around here in Vermilion seem to be concerned. I just hope that we don't end up with a surprise visit from Isaac. Please post whatever you hear or know that may concern Vermilion Parish as well - really appreciate it neighbor!
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