ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Back up to 65...pressure down 1 mb...

LOCATION...24.1N 82.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[weatherSnoop]

Updated 'action zones', from TWC:

http://i45.tinypic.com/28l3v4z.jpg

This is without a doubt the single most worthless graphic I've seen in all my years of following the tropics. TWC should be ashamed at putting out such drivel. I commiserate with the poor folks in Tallahassee, FL taking "action" right now re this storm per TWC's graphic, or someone in Bainbridge, GA being on alert...

Ever since NBC took over TWC, the quality of the data/products from the network has gone downhill. Looks great on TV, but equates to nothing!

This chart is similar to half of the "talent" on TWC in my opinion...pretty face - empty head.

Makes me thing AAA is a sponsor

[WeatherGuesser]

8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.1°N 82.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

Microwave loop had it gaining strength earlier to just below 60kt, but after that quickly fell off and now is around 50kt. Not a good sign for a strengthening storm. Well, I see latest advisory (above post) has it down from 992mb to 991mb and increased the winds to 65mph. That's surprising!

[JPmia]

Well I was looking around Ft. Lauderdale beach about 2 hours ago and there were squalls with at least 50mph + winds and this storm really brought in a surge to the FL east coast.. intercoastal properties have water all the way up to the top of their seawalls.. this storm will probably bring a large surge with it to the north gulf coast. stay safe up there!

i was down there around 4 pm and the weather was heavier than it had been all day and its been very windy since then and now we have thunder...the last 3 hours have been worse than at any other time today..there was a power outage at oakland park and a1a..this was just issued so more action on the way for the SE coast...isaac looking to fuel itself from the atlantic waters tonight..

You're right it is worse than this morning.. seems like this corroborates with a storm that is getting its act together.

[TwisterFanatic]

Dry air = miniscule

[stormreader]

Still dry air there.

[vacanechaser]

Dry air = miniscule

dry air over water is miniscule... it does not show the nice slug over land however.. thats gonna have an effect down the road..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Mattie]

Just heard Cantore is in NOLA...that's never good news!

Right, cantore has the reputation of being where the hurricane isn't.

[HurricaneBrain]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Is Wilkens Weather an official source? Friend onshore sent me this PDF:

[fasterdisaster]

Microwave loop had it gaining strength earlier to just below 60kt, but after that quickly fell off and now is around 50kt. Not a good sign for a strengthening storm. Well, I see latest advisory (above post) has it down from 992mb to 991mb and increased the winds to 65mph. That's surprising!

60 kts FL winds support 65 mph. There may be some slightly higher winds not sampled yet as well. It's certainly not bombing though.

[Nederlander]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

Still dry air there.

That's not low/mid level dry air

[jlauderdal]

Well I was looking around Ft. Lauderdale beach about 2 hours ago and there were squalls with at least 50mph + winds and this storm really brought in a surge to the FL east coast.. intercoastal properties have water all the way up to the top of their seawalls.. this storm will probably bring a large surge with it to the north gulf coast. stay safe up there!

i was down there around 4 pm and the weather was heavier than it had been all day and its been very windy since then and now we have thunder...the last 3 hours have been worse than at any other time today..there was a power outage at oakland park and a1a..this was just issued so more action on the way for the SE coast...isaac looking to fuel itself from the atlantic waters tonight..

You're right it is worse than this morning.. seems like this corroborates with a storm that is getting its act together.

that feeder band setting up appears to be intensifying too..looks like have another hour of this..our lights have been flickering...strange to have all of this thunder and lighting with a tropical system

[Sabanic]

No Sir

Is Wilkens Weather an official source? Friend offshore sent me this PDF:

[ozonepete]

Still dry air there.

You can't use those satellite images for water vapor. They don't pick up mid-level water vapor which is what counts. They are blocked from seeing mid-level dry air by upper level moisture or dry air which has no effect on Tropical Cyclones. You need to use mid-level dry air from CIMSS.

[Air Force Met]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

OK guys...it hasn't stalled (to the question what the TX mets think of the stall).

10 miles between dropsondes (and center fixes) in an hour is 10 miles an hour. That's not a drift or a stall. It has slowed down...which I think is due to some re-org. the earlier dropsonde showed a tilted system with the 850 mb out to the WNW of the sfc. This is also evident on Key West radar.

Once it gets stacked, we get towards d-max...and it moves a little more away from Cuba...it will deepen at a fairly noticeable rate. we could see a rate of .5-1 mb / hour in the morning...but that's a guess. Still some dry air.

And don't ask...I don't know where it's going....but if I was in Louisiana...i would be prepped.

[fasterdisaster]

Any guess on when Isaac makes the switch to hurricane status, AFM? Do you think the NHC's being conservative over the next 24 hours or is any strengthening going to be slow going?

[stormhunter7]

found Flight level center on new AFRecon coming in! lol

Time: 00:02:00Z
Coordinates: 24.0333N 82.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,442 meters (~ 4,731 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.7 mb (~ 29.31 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 262° at 0 knots (From the W at ~ 0.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.8°C (~ 69.4°F)
Dew Pt: 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

[PTrackerLA]

I'll be preparing tomorrow because if the GFS/HWRF/GFDL hold true I will be getting some very nasty weather with center passing just to my south.

[Countrygirl911]

St. Charles parish is under a mandatory evacuation and here in MS pike county MS is under a tropical storm warning about 30 min from me that is close to 150 miles inland