ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Senobia]

Updated 'action zones', from TWC:

http://i45.tinypic.com/28l3v4z.jpg

I have been here since the beginning as an inaugural member of S2K and until the last few days have never seen this graphic. What exactly does "action" mean, please? Thanks,

Here's the legend to the chart:

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... d-20120823

[deltadog03]

This thing is crawling......looks like some SW shear as well.

[pgoss11]

This thing is crawling......looks like some SW shear as well.

8:00pm advisory said it's moving 15 mph wnw

[nashrobertsx]

Lots of dry air to its south and southwest.

[Aric Dunn]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

OK guys...it hasn't stalled (to the question what the TX mets think of the stall).

10 miles between dropsondes (and center fixes) in an hour is 10 miles an hour. That's not a drift or a stall. It has slowed down...which I think is due to some re-org. the earlier dropsonde showed a tilted system with the 850 mb out to the WNW of the sfc. This is also evident on Key West radar.

Once it gets stacked, we get towards d-max...and it moves a little more away from Cuba...it will deepen at a fairly noticeable rate. we could see a rate of .5-1 mb / hour in the morning...but that's a guess. Still some dry air.

And don't ask...I don't know where it's going....but if I was in Louisiana...i would be prepped.

well did you notice the second pass from the noaa plane it was slightly east of the previous pass the the third was 10 miles from the second. it clearly is getting slight sheared and some reorganization has happened.

[Senobia]

This imho is EVIDENCE of what happens when NBC Takes over a Weather Channel...FEAR the Graphic...simple answer===CORPORATE GARBAGE!

Nobody said, "Fear the graphic". If you look at the current watch/warning areas, you'll see how the graphic coincides with what is transpiring in that region. Don't like it? Don't trust it? Don't follow it. Thanks.

Edited to add the link to the legend for that chart:

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... d-20120823

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think a lot of you are underestimating this storm. With an inner-core now well established, it could rapidly intensify at any time. A Category 4 hurricane is not out of the realms of possibility as the HWRF and ECMWF have shown.

[Hurricaneman]

The center is still on the edge SE edge of the convection according to recon

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[Buckeye05]

Radar presentation is looking better now.

[Sabanic]

Mandatory Evacuations South of I-10 in Mobile County ordered by Governor Bentley

[cycloneye]

SSD goes up in intensity to shy of hurricane strengh.

26/2345 UTC 24.5N 82.3W T3.5/3.5 ISAAC -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Frank P]

Radar presentation is looking better now.

center easier to track, definitely moving and northwestward...

[tolakram]

I think a lot of you are underestimating this storm. With an inner-core now well established, it could rapidly intensify at any time. A Category 4 hurricane is not out of the realms of possibility as the HWRF and ECMWF have shown.

The inner core is not well established according to the last VDM sent, no eyewall built yet.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I think a lot of you are underestimating this storm. With an inner-core now well established, it could rapidly intensify at any time. A Category 4 hurricane is not out of the realms of possibility as the HWRF and ECMWF have shown.

The inner core is not well established according to the last VDM sent, no eyewall built yet.

Latest Radar from after the Pass shows that the Eyewall is building quickly now.

[Texashawk]

I'm not liking the continued near-west movement according to the latest wind shift locations (back to 24.1 N?) I thought I heard someone in a discussion say that if the W - WNW movement continued until tomorrow morning SETX would be possibly under the gun.

[rainstorm]

it better slow down or its a cat1 at best. JB on the radio still says cat3/4. i dont see how with it decoupled and moving so fast.

[nashrobertsx]

I checked out pressures all around the surface High Pressure system located over the tennesse valley and pressures all around that area have been falling through the afternoon. I don't know if there is anything that can be said for the trough entering the area or not. It looks like the trough will make it pretty close to a line from memphis to houston, but then it just washes out, which to me means its not strong enough to pick up Issac. Thoughts?

[TwisterFanatic]

it better slow down or its a cat1 at best. JB on the radio still says cat3/4. i dont see how with it decoupled and moving so fast.

Decoupled? What storm are you looking at?

And it's slowing down.

[BobHarlem]

Check the water vapor satellite, Isaac seems to be struggling with the dry air to the south. The center seems again detached from the convection, and it's still moving west which kinda appears like a slowdown. I doubt it'll do much until 24 hours out or so.

[fasterdisaster]

The center is right under the convection, I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The south side is still weak, but what convection is there is over the center and to the north.