ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

It sure looks like the center is trying to relocate further north, though its going to take a while as its not easy for a strong low (something clsoe to 990mbs is going to take a while to wind down) but the radar looks like it and it does seem to have slowed rather alot on IR, the same thing happened just as Issac was about to take off before hitting Haiti.

[Zeno8]

Microwave seems to show an eyewall rapidly forming

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Great stuff GCANE......as usual

[bucman1]

KWT ,whatmight that do to the track?

[GCANE]

Microwave seems to show an eyewall rapidly forming

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Great stuff GCANE......as usual

Much thanks Zeno8!

[KWT]

Microwave seems to show an eyewall rapidly forming

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Great stuff GCANE......as usual

Yeah that is really interesting, its a little hard to tell whats going on with this system, it seems to have had trouble with stacking issues ever since it entered the Caribbean and only briefly shook it off as it slammed into Haiti.

[Buckeye05]

COC really does appear to be shifting to the north judging by the latest radar. The "old" COC seems to be weakening.

[CronkPSU]

that MIMIC is awesome...great view of the core (or lack thereof) anddirection it is moving

[mahi1720]

Give it a few hrs. and you're gonna see an eyewall. It's about to bomb out. This reminds me of Charley.

What evidence do you have to support your prediction?

I can't state with 100% assurance but I do know we are in the peak of hurricane season, the water is hot and the Gulf of Mexico has had some hurricanes in the past. The conditions are pretty good. What evidence do you have that its not going to bomb?

Don't really want to get into a Jr. High peeing match but if you look at the last few frames of satellite, the convection has exploded. The low(I think) will probably reform under that central dense overcast. Not a whole lot of shear to tear him up, a lot has been made about the dry air but its moving away from that. Look back at some satellite loops of past storms in the GOM. I might be wrong and I truly hope I am but I lived in Florida for 16 yrs and I've had it blow 130 at my house so I kinda try to keep an eye out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Rain has died down here in Port St. Lucie but the wind has sure picked up. Probably the strongest sustained we've seen all day. I think Isaac is stretching his legs.

SFT

[KWT]

It should be noted that most models only show modest strengthening at best in the next 6-12hrs, its only after that point that most models start to power up in quite a big way. So maybe we shouldn't be expecting anything too impressive in the very short term, tomorrow looks the day when things will happen, we'll have to see whether the core sorts itself out at long last.

[bella_may]

public school cancellations have already been made along the Alabama coast and western Fla panhandle for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

[JPmia]

Rain has died down here in Port St. Lucie but the wind has sure picked up. Probably the strongest sustained we've seen all day. I think Isaac is stretching his legs.

SFT

yeah i agree.. tonight the weather has progressively gone down hill, which is weird since he is moving away.

[rainstorm]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

[KWT]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Its not going that fast to be honest, no faster than many other majors we've seen in the past.

Its more the fact that its been gulping in air from Ciuba and there is some shear still present in the midlevels, that is forecasted to weaken though and nearly all models show little-no strengthening in the next 6-12hrs, followed by quite rapid strengthening after that.

I'd be amazed if this comes anywhere close to a cat-5, I'd say a major is still very much possible though personally I'd go with a high end 2.

[galaxy401]

The storm does look like it can explode any moment. Just needs to establish a defined inner core.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LAMOM]

Just got in from store getting some things for dinner. People have pretty much lost there minds now. Looks like black friday only at the grocery stores. Area gas stations have lines at every pump. Going to be a long couple days trying to get around town, especially with evacs beginning now.

Long time lurker here from north of Denham Springs, LA...I think you are right about the long days, we already have at least one store out of gas here.

[Ivanhater]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Enough. The Euro model doesn't get this going until tomorrow and shows RI tomorrow and Tuesday.

[Bocadude85]

Tornado warning for palm beach. Winds howling outside.. transformers blowing to our north

[HurricaneQueen]

Thanks to all who answered me about the TWC graphics. What a was waste of time and money, IMO to make such a chart. Your replies are much appreciated.

BTW, there seem to be a lot of newer (and not so new) members who don't appear to know the rules of S2K. PLEASE don't make bold statements for which you you have no included backup and don't forget to use the following disclaimer for any personal opinions or forecasts:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Also, we are all tired and frustrated but please be kind to others. If the Admins weren't so overwhelmed, I feel quite certain that there would be a lot of "vacations" for those who are being so rude to others and making blatant statements.

Sorry to be off topic but IMO these things need to be addressed. I apologize to the Admins if I am stepping on toes.

All the best to those who are facing Isaac. Hopefully, it will remain less fearsome than some are predicting. Be safe and thanks for "listening".

If this is inappropriate please feel free to delete.

[HurrMark]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Its not going that fast to be honest, no faster than many other majors we've seen in the past.

Its more the fact that its been gulping in air from Ciuba and there is some shear still present in the midlevels, that is forecasted to weaken though and nearly all models show little-no strengthening in the next 6-12hrs, followed by quite rapid strengthening after that.

I'd be amazed if this comes anywhere close to a cat-5, I'd say a major is still very much possible though personally I'd go with a high end 2.

Cuba should be a non-factor by now. I don't know what the shear is, but it doesn't look that inhibiting. It may just be low instability per wxman57? I don't know...but I actually think this is the best it has ever looked, and real estate is really the only big inhibiting factor at this point.

I do think you are right, though...high 2...Ike level...is what I am thinking (not an official forecast). And actually, I would not be surprised to see some slight weakening right before landfall...there have been studies that have shown that storms making landfall in the northern Gulf tend to weaken in the hours prior to landfall (as we saw with Katrina, Opal, Rita, and other storms).