ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pricetag56]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Does he explain his reasoning? I think the only way it has a chance at cat 5 is if its able to tap into the loop current and draw in lots of midlevel moisture what does the loop current look like now?

[JSDS]

Just got in from store getting some things for dinner. People have pretty much lost there minds now. Looks like black friday only at the grocery stores. Area gas stations have lines at every pump. Going to be a long couple days trying to get around town, especially with evacs beginning now.

Long time lurker here from north of Denham Springs, LA...I think you are right about the long days, we already have at least one store out of gas here.

Welcome LAMOM! I live in south Denham Springs, and I mostly lurk too. The gas station near my house ran out of gas earlier today. Glad I gassed up this morning.

[marciacubed]

It is really raining here in Boynton Beach. It really hasn't stopped for the last couple of hours. Not a lot of wind but it is gusty at times. This one has lasted longer than Wilma (witch took our screen enclosure and put it in the pool). I think it must be intesifying I know nothing so as always get your information from the professionals not from me. I am not forecasting just observing.

[KWT]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Enough. The Euro model doesn't get this going until tomorrow and shows RI tomorrow and Tuesday.

Its frankly just nonsense, any look at history shows there have been MANY cat-5s that have gone above 15mph which is the speed roughly Issac is moving at (or was moving at!)

Rita
Ivan (1st time)
Dean
Felix
Andrew
Gilbert

To name a few that have all becomes 5s and been moving 15mph or faster, in some cases closer to 20mph!

Its just a nonsense...I'm sure there are even more examples for simply major hurricanes.

[Mattie]

Just got in from store getting some things for dinner. People have pretty much lost there minds now. Looks like black friday only at the grocery stores. Area gas stations have lines at every pump. Going to be a long couple days trying to get around town, especially with evacs beginning now.

Long time lurker here from north of Denham Springs, LA...I think you are right about the long days, we already have at least one store out of gas here.

We are heading there tomorrow because mom in assisted living and need to be on standby to evacuate. Which store?

[jhpigott]

Strongest winds we have experienced so far. WPB reporting sustained winds at 33mph and gusting to 52

[jinftl]

He also said this past Friday night that Miami could see a direct hit from a cat 2/cat 3 from Isaac

he does know how to get press...heck, we're talking about him

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

[KWT]

Recon sure looks like its suggesting there maybe a relocation event going on right now towards the deeper convection, it'd back up radar obs as well. IF that turns out to be the case, it'd be a big step towards stacking and that in turn a big step towards an inner core.

[weunice]

Just got in from store getting some things for dinner. People have pretty much lost there minds now. Looks like black friday only at the grocery stores. Area gas stations have lines at every pump. Going to be a long couple days trying to get around town, especially with evacs beginning now.

Long time lurker here from north of Denham Springs, LA...I think you are right about the long days, we already have at least one store out of gas here.

Welcome LAMOM! I live in south Denham Springs, and I mostly lurk too. The gas station near my house ran out of gas earlier today. Glad I gassed up this morning.

Make it three from DS. I finished up my preparations today. I didn't see too many people out. A little floored some of the stations are out already.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a ragged outer (double) eyewall on Key West radar.

Might be dry air slots though.

[Hurrilurker]

JB said on the radio that a cat5 is possible. it better slow down and develop a core so it can at least get to cat1 first.

Does he explain his reasoning? I think the only way it has a chance at cat 5 is if its able to tap into the loop current and draw in lots of midlevel moisture what does the loop current look like now?

Well, just about anything is "possible", I wouldn't read too much into that. Seeing any Cat 5 is extremely unlikely in the first place, and with this storm facing a few challenges (shaking off the land interaction, some dry air entrainment, circulation still trying to stack, etc.) it seems exceedingly unlikely that Cat 5 is in the cards. Cat 3+, however, doesn't seem at all out of the question.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Strong squall moving through miami gusts in the 40-45mph range.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't like to go by just radar because I know its beam is hitting at mid levels but this sure looks to be moving more NNW!

[LSU2001]

I used to live in Watson right behind Live Oak High. I moved "down the bayou" after Katrina. It sure looks like I will be getting some pretty rough weather come Tues. or Wed.
Tim

[HurrMark]

Simply by laws of probability, for any given event, a cat 5 is possible. The probability is never completely zero, even for a depression running into a wall of 60 kt shear. It might be infinitesmally small, but it is always going to be a positive number. So theoretically, JB is right. Could it become a cat 5? As mentioned, yes. But there a big difference between possible and probable.

[Stephanie]

I used to live in Watson right behind Live Oak High. I moved "down the bayou" after Katrina. It sure looks like I will be getting some pretty rough weather come Tues. or Wed.
Tim

Everyone from New Orleans to the Panhandle of FL be safe! I hope you are all making your final preparations right now.

[CypressMike]

JB isn't saying he expects Isaac to reach Cat 5 - only that it is within the realm of possibility, especially if he does take a much more western path toward SW LA or SE TX (which he does NOT expect him to do).

[KWT]

Appears to be a ragged outer (double) eyewall on Key West radar.

Might be dry air slots though.

Sure looks like its trying to sort out its stacking issues, I think the next 6-12hrs will be all about sorting out its inner core issues, this time tomorrow I think we'll be seeing a 70-80kts cane.

[ozonepete]

For more comparison, Isaac at 2:15PM today and then from recently at 9:15PM.

[Ivanhater]

Nice graphic I saw....showing where the new center looks to be taking over ..north of most of the models