Upcoming week - August 27-September 3 (EXTENDED)

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Oh my, this was not good. I’m going to start with the easiest two to evaluate, Invest 95L and Tropical Storm Joyce. I actually had Invest 95L forming into Joyce on Tuesday right off the coast of Mexico before moving inland. Well, it didn’t develop at all, but I guess proved to be no more than the rain threat that I anticipated. On the other hand, I had Invest 96L not developing at all, since no reliable models seemed to be latching on to it. This one did manage to become Joyce after all, though I am also not surprised that it was barely ever a tropical storm. But let’s face it, I blew it on both of these two systems.

And then there’s the big headline for the week: Isaac. For one thing, I had Isaac forming about 24 hours too soon, on Monday instead of Tuesday when it happened. This said, the first few days of predicting this storm were actually not too bad. I never had Isaac strengthening above about 40-50 mph before reaching the Caribbean or maybe a day beyond; indeed, as it reached the Caribbean on Wednesday, its winds were still only about 45 mph and it was disorganized. I also at least foresaw some intensification to 60 mph, but on Thursday instead of Friday. I also head Isaac continuing the westward track throughout the week, another big mistake. Then again, it was following it until about late Thursday night, and the timing of the track south of Hispaniola by Friday was also pretty good. Then things turned into a disaster for this past week. I did not foresee Isaac turning northwest into Haiti on late Friday night and then eastern Cuba for Saturday, and paralleling the Cuban coast for Sunday. Also, Isaac grew quite a bit larger and stronger than I anticipated, gathering winds of 70 mph as it made landfall in Haiti and only weakening a little before reaching the waters off of Cuba, at about 50-60 mph.

I did fair enough on the first few days of Isaac, up until about Friday morning. But I did extremely poorly elsewhere. This was admittedly a very difficult week, and the first few days are just barely enough to save me from a completely blown forecast and a failing grade. My grade for this past week is a very low-end D-.

We have a very, very, very big next few days coming up with Isaac reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Could we see anything else form out in the Atlantic this week too? Let’s take a look, at an extended week to accommodate the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Current situation and models

The vast majority of this discussion will be about Isaac. Isaac is currently near hurricane intensity with maximum winds of 65 mph as it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This storm is moving generally west-northwest to northwest at speeds of about 10-15 mph. However, Isaac may be approaching a weakness in a ridge of high pressure to the north. This is supported by the Euro, NAM, and UKMET models, which predict Isaac to turn northward rather sharply into a landfall in areas from about Mobile, Alabama, to Apalachicola, Florida. However, the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models forecast a stronger ridge over the southeastern United States, which would be capable of taking Isaac into Louisiana. For what it’s worth, while the Euro Operational has Isaac striking the Florida Panhandle, the ensemble mean of that model takes the storm into Mississippi for now, similar to the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center. Another trend with the forecast track is that this track continues to shift more and more west. All of the models do tend to agree on about when this potentially dangerous storm will make landfall, and that is about late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Another thing the models all agree on is that Isaac is going to deepen rather quickly these next couple days before it makes its final landfall, with pressures in about the 950’s or 960’s. These pressures usually correspond to a major hurricane.

Isaac may indeed deepen that much, and strengthen into a category 3 or 4 storm too. This storm may very well be compared to the two biggest hurricanes to strike the United States in the last decade, Katrina and Ike. Like both storms, this is a very large storm, with tropical storm winds extending out 205 miles from the center. Storms of this size have great potential to produce very devastating storm surges, like both Katrina and Ike. However, from an intensity standpoint, Katrina was a category 5 with winds reaching 175 mph at its peak. This storm was more average in size when it first reached the Gulf of Mexico, although it did also have about three and a half days in the Gulf before reaching Louisiana and Mississippi. However, Ike was a much larger storm when it reached the Gulf, and like Isaac, made a long passage along the coast of Cuba. This storm also had about three and half days in the Gulf before reaching Texas, and its pressure dropped to 944 millibars at one point before making landfall. However, with its large size, it never grew beyond a category 2 storm. Isaac is a storm that will have an additional 48 hours or so before landfall, with heat content in the Gulf of Mexico lower than in 2005, though still high enough to allow for fairly significant intensification. Isaac is still trying to establish its inner core and is not entirely symmetrical or vertically stacked. This system is also entraining some dry air thanks from its south due to an upper level low to its west. This low is forecast to head west and with it the shear should lighten enough for Isaac to gradually strengthen. The air is more moist in the Gulf of Mexico than further south, but not overly so. All of this may at least be partially why the National Hurricane Center is calling for a category 2 hurricane, but not a category 3.

I think another interesting storm to compare Isaac to is Hurricane Gustav. Like Isaac, that storm took a path over Haiti, but as a slightly stronger storm. However, it weakened to a similar intensity that Isaac weakened to after its strike there. It then took a track towards Jamaica, another similarly mountainous area comparable to eastern Cuba. Gustav needed about 24 hours until it was finally able to ramp up a little more over more open waters. But once it did, it intensified quite quickly. By staying only just offshore of Cuba, Isaac has had similar issues with intensifying. However, Isaac will soon be over the open and quite warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, so this storm may have a shot at ramping up quite quickly too. Then again, Gustav was a bit more compact over the western Caribbean than Isaac is now, though Gustav did also grow quite a bit in size over the Gulf of Mexico. The one other difference between these two storms is the intensity coming into this part of the world. Isaac is a strong tropical storm poised to intensify, while Gustav was a major hurricane that weakened due to dry air entrainment. While Isaac has also had this impediment for some time, it is forecast to weaken, unlike what took place with Gustav.

Tornadoes also continue to be a threat for Florida through Monday, and then the threat will always be there after making landfall, mostly in the far outer bands. Also, with a storm this large, flood threats absolutely have to be taken very seriously. Isaac is forecast to slow down after making landfall and turn to the north. Flash floods will likely be a very significant threat to many areas throughout the South, and where exactly will depend a lot not only on where it makes landfall, but what the steering currents looking like after that.

Isaac is looking to be a very disastrous storm for the Gulf Coast and the southern United States. It is a very important thing to remember that this is NOT an official forecast! Please remember to listen to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories, and your local National Weather Services and authorities for what to do if Isaac impacts your area. I also had a very bad week last week, and the precise nature of this kind of prediction will lower confidence a lot with this storm. Thank you.

However, it is late August, which usually means there is more out there. Sure enough, Invest 97L has been trying to develop over the weekend, yet never can seem to pull the trigger. Chances for development have always been about medium over the weekend, though decreased slightly today from 50 percent to 40 percent, per the National Hurricane Center. Conditions are also forecast to become less conducive for development in a couple days as this system continues northwest. No reliable model predicts this storm to ever come close to striking land except for maybe the Azores, if were ever to develop. The GFS actually seems to develop this starting on about Tuesday, and as it slowly re-curves into a weakness in a ridge high pressure to the north and east, intensifies rather appreciably in waters similar to where Hurricane Gordon was just a little over a week ago. However, the Euro never really shows this system getting off the ground, perhaps becoming a weak tropical storm at its strongest. It is also very hard to ignore that Tropical Storm Joyce tried to strengthen in this area along a similar track, and struggled throughout its very brief life. This system is even weaker than that entity ever was. For what it’s worth, the remnants of Joyce have all but fizzled out not terribly far to Invest 97L’s west.

Another very interesting tropical wave is being picked up for this upcoming week by the GFS and Euro models. This system would likely head fairly slowly across the Atlantic until eventually reaching the Leeward Islands on about late Saturday or Sunday. Looking at the GFS and Euro, this storm will probably wait about four to five days to develop into a cyclone, or likely Thursday or Friday. The GFS and Euro also show a gradually deepening system upon reaching the Caribbean, but probably not overly intense. In fact, the Euro ensemble mean shows a very weak system in this area by Sunday. I also want to note that the GFS long range does show a rather intense storm off the East Coast a little beyond this upcoming week, likely re-curving between there and Bermuda. A disturbance like this one may be a good candidate to follow a track like that during that time frame.

Recent history

I could have easily included my comparison of Isaac with Katrina, Gustav, and Ike in this part of the discussion. However, I also want to ask, how many major hurricanes have hit the United States in El Nino years, like 2012? In 18 such seasons in 1960, storms that have done so include Betsy, Alicia, Andrew, and Emily in 1993. Alicia developed rather quickly in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and struck the upper Texas coast. Emily brushed by the Outer Banks of North Carolina. But Betsy and Andrew both took tracks very close to what Isaac might do, traversing South Florida to an eventual landfall along the Louisiana coast. They also came from tropical waves, unlike Alicia and like today’s Isaac. Both were moving northwest over the Gulf of Mexico and re-curving into a weakness in a ridge of high pressure to the north, but never fully turned north until after their final landfalls. Another major hurricane to strike land in the Gulf of Mexico is Anita in 1977, which hammered northern Mexico. This storm had a similar life to Alicia in terms of location and track, except it came from a tropical wave.

Another good question is, what other hurricanes have struck the Gulf the Mexico in El Nino years? Such storms include Agnes in 1972, Babe in 1977, Bonnie in 1986, Danny in 1997, and Lili in 2002. Agnes hit the Florida Panhandle and Bonnie struck the upper Texas coast. The other three storms all struck the same state: Louisiana. Also, all but one of these systems came from frontal or subtropical origin. The one to come from a tropical wave was Lili. This storm was admittedly also a very powerful hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico, but fortunately weakened rapidly before landfall near Intracoastal City, Louisiana. This storm paralleled the south coast of Cuba before it came into a similar weakness in a ridge of high pressure that Isaac may be encountering. However, it never fully turned north until after making landfall, like Betsy and Andrew.

This is such a typically busy time of year that it would require naming a lot of storms since only 1960 that have formed during this upcoming week. Moreover, the other active areas look to be in longitudes east of 60 degrees. What storms have formed in this area in 18 El Nino seasons since 1960? (excluding Modoki years) How about:

Betsy in 1965
Frances in 1976
Beryl in 1982
Erika in 1997
Dolly in 2002
Florence in 2006
Erika in 2009

For approaching the peak of the hurricane season, this is a rather underwhelming set to work with. Four of these seven storms eventually became hurricanes. What’s more, is that they all formed in the Main Development Region initially; not one initially developed into a tropical depression north of 20 degrees. However, the storms that lived longer lives, including Betsy, Frances, 1997 Erika, and Florence, all started to strengthen more when they got north of that latitude. Frances and Erika were minimal hurricanes south of 20 degrees, but became major hurricanes not long after crossing that latitude. Dolly in 2002 also admittedly took a track towards those latitudes, but still never really got off the ground. Beryl and 2009 Erika, which took more westerly paths, really struggled throughout their lives. Then again, Beryl did once top out at 70 mph far out over the open Atlantic. Only Betsy out of all these storms hit areas from the Caribbean to the United States as a significant storm. Erika in 1997 did skirt the Leeward Islands, but its strongest weather stayed offshore, and the 2009 version of this name went right into the Caribbean and then fizzled out quickly.

However, I will also note, that Subtropical Storm Bravo, which had developed in the prior week, became Hurricane Betty east longitude 60 in more subtropical latitudes during this week. Betty was a category 2 hurricane at its strongest, but never threatened land.

So what does this all tell us?

Isaac may indeed deepen quite a bit before its final landfall on most likely Tuesday night. However, its size and current strength are likely going to be impediments to gathering the winds it would need to be a category 3 hurricane. With ocean heat contents which are, to be certain, high enough to support a hurricane this deep, but not high like 2005, this storm likely won’t intensify terribly rapidly. As for the track, this storm looks to follow Hurricanes Betsy, Andrew, and Lili to a landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, with all three of these storms reaching Louisiana. The GFS takes Isaac in that direction, and has done quite a good job this season. However, as long as the Euro Operational takes Isaac further east, a landfall in places from Mobile to Apalachicola cannot be ruled out either. However, the forecast track does continue to shift further west, and I think this may continue until about Monday night. I think by then there will be a very good idea on a landfall location, and I am thinking Louisiana is the most likely place to receive a visit from Isaac.

Intensity forecast is never easy with any storm, and Isaac is no exception. However, Isaac is weaker entering the Gulf of Mexico than Betsy, Andrew, Lili, and Ike all were. This storm will also have about 48 hours to strengthen before making landfall. Then again, all of the reliable models show a pretty deep system making landfall on Tuesday night, with a pressure probably in the 950’s or 960’s. This would normally correspond at about the threshold of a category 3 hurricane, but Isaac is also a large storm in size. Storms this large often have maximum winds less intense with that low pressure than more compact storms with the same pressure. I think in that sense, Isaac will be more comparable to storms like Gustav and Ike, as opposed to the more intense storms that have passed through this area. This storm will also have about 48 hours to strengthen, which isn’t a great deal of time to become a category 3 hurricane unless it really ramps up starting on Monday. In fact, I think overall the best analog for this storm while over the Gulf of Mexico might very well be Gustav, both by track and intensity.

A storm as large as Isaac will be more than capable of not just producing wind damage. A very devastating storm surge is quite possibly, depending on the angle it comes it. It could also slow down after landfall, which could lead to very heavy rainfall and some devastating floods. Tornadoes are also prime threats in the outer rain bands of this system, as Florida has been experiencing.

As for further out in the Atlantic, this is proving to be one of those El Nino years that pump out lots of disturbances that try their best to develop. Try as they may though, conditions are really not that favorable in the Main Development Region. Ernesto didn’t get really intensify until it reached the Western Caribbean, Florence never got off the ground, seventh tropical depression never intensified further than that, Isaac intensified more as it approached Haiti, the and Joyce just died out there too. However, a storm like Gordon which formed further north got away from these unfavorable conditions and intensified quite a bit more, nearly becoming a category 3 hurricane.

We also must remember the very good job that the GFS has done this season. It was right on with Debby to start with when the Euro and other models took it into Texas for one thing. The GFS was also right that Ernesto might turn more southerly after striking the Yucatan, when many other models had him lasting longer over the Bay of Campeche. The GFS was also the only one to strengthen Gordon significantly at all before it even developed. The Euro actually didn’t really do much with that storm when it was still an Invest. But the GFS is also still only one model, and in the case of Invest 97L, this would be almost strictly a curiosity standpoint unless it manages to threaten the Azores. Joyce did follow a track similar to this and always struggled, and is almost assured to never re-develop.

The prediction

So what will happen exactly? This is going to be a quite low-confidence prediction with Isaac to say the least, but here is my best shot: I predict that Isaac will become a hurricane on Monday morning and continue a west-northwest to northwesterly track across the Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Before landfall, lots of high waves will cause coastal flooding from Fort Myers around the Gulf of Mexico to Mississippi. The waves will be higher from Naples to near Tampa, then level or lower heading into the Big Bend area to about Apalachicola. West of there, the waves will pick up a little more in earnest with the highest being along coastal Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. On Tuesday, Isaac will become a category 2 hurricane as it continues on its track, through landfall early Wednesday morning along the central Louisiana coast, somewhere between about Lake Charles and Houma. This storm will also deepen quite a bit to a pressure in the 960’s for millibars on Tuesday, but not intensify more than a category 2 storm with winds of about 100-105 mph at landfall. Isaac will make landfall at an acute angle that will minimize the effects of storm surge, but will still bring very damaging winds to areas of Louisiana close to the coast – much like Hurricane Gustav in 2008, but probably closer in location to where Andrew and Lili hit in the past. Isaac will then slow down a little after landfall while weakening to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and a tropical depression later that night while turning to the north. This slowing in forward speed will lead to some flooding throughout Louisiana and parts of eastern Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas before Isaac turns northeast near the Louisiana/Arkansas border on Thursday. Tornadoes will also be common in eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and in parts of Tennessee during this period of time. Beginning on Thursday, Isaac will speed up a bit as it tracks north along the Mississippi Valley, bringing more floods with it into that region before dissipating on Friday as it starts nearing the Great Lakes. Due to the precise nature of this prediction, confidence is only 30%. Please remember that this is not an official forecast! Instead, please listen to the National Hurricane Center for official forecast information on this potentially dangerous storm, as it could easily swing east of where I am predicting into areas as far east as Apalachicola, Florida. On the other hand, if the track continues to shift westward, areas further west closer to places like the Texas coast could be in for a nasty surprise too. Please also listen to your local National Weather Service and your local authorities on what to do if this storm heads towards your area. Thank you.

What do I think Invest 97L will do? Not much, if anything at all. It is hard to ignore the performance of the GFS model this year, but no model is perfect and conditions just do not appear favorable enough for this system down the road. I predict no more development than a tropical depression out of Invest 97L if it develops at all. But I also simply predict no tropical cyclone development from this system. Confidence is 70%. Additionally, for what it’s worth, I would favor a re-curving track well east of Bermuda on about Friday or Saturday.

Another system may try to get going in the Main Development Region this week too. What do I think it may do? I predict a tropical depression will form on Thursday evening, but slowly become Tropical Storm Kirk on Friday afternoon or evening while heading west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This storm will not intensify a lot before reaching the Leeward Islands, with maximum winds of about 45-50 mph as it reaches that area on Sunday. I also predict this storm will then pass very near, if not over, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with winds of again about 40-50 mph. Confidence is 70% up until Monday. With meager model data for that day, confidence is 50%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 80%.

-Andrew92

[rainstorm]

great update!!

[northjaxpro]

Excellent analysis!

[cycloneye]

Agree with the above members. I think is the best analysis that you have made since you started this for the 2012 Atlantic season.

[Ntxw]

Ditto with everyone else. You make fantastic writeups and this is one of if not the best one yet. I thoroughly enjoy learning from it each week and just wow...great stuff!

[JtSmarts]

Agree with the above members. I think is the best analysis that you have made since you started this for the 2012 Atlantic season.

Absolutely Agree!

[cigtyme]

Agree with the above members. I think is the best analysis that you have made since you started this for the 2012 Atlantic season.

Absolutely Agree!

Love reading your weekly post. Only problem was mentioning Houma

[Andrew92]

I greatly appreciate the compliments everyone! Right now, still intensifying slower than I thought, may move onshore a little earlier than I previously anticipated, and a bit further east as well but not much. But I am nailing the effects down pat so far, and the state where this makes landfall is also right on. So we will see what the effects are once this thing moves onshore, but still thinking mostly flooding. However, I do also think tornadoes are still very much possible on the far eastern bands of this storm.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also, I know some are downplaying this year as an El Nino year due to the number of named storms. However, we have still seen only Ernesto become a hurricane at a latitude south of 20 degrees, in the more favorable western Caribbean. Isaac did come close before striking Haiti but couldn't quite pull it off south of that latitude. So far, five tropical cyclones have developed in this area, but all have struggled mightily at some point in their lives, if not died out altogether. Storms have overachieved in more subtropical latitudes this season though, another staple of El Nino years. Beryl nearly became a hurricane in May near Jacksonville, I never would have thought Chris would have become a hurricane where it did in June, and Gordon even beat my expectations (and I saw him becoming a hurricane several days in advance) by nearly becoming a category 3. But these storms were also further north in subtropical latitudes.

I also foresee this El Nino strengthening after the usual peak of the hurricane season, September 10. It would actually not surprise me to indeed see Kirk this week and probably Leslie in another week or so, but then see the rest of September be very quiet. I still think we may only get to Nadine at the furthest, or if we go further, that it takes several very weak storms like Joyce to do it.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

It is at last time to evaluate.

First off, I want to thank those who commented saying this was one of my best analyses of the year to date. I did put a lot of work into this past week. However, this analysis also turned out to be far from perfect. I think I am guilty of a major thing this past week: paralysis by analysis. Believe it or not, before I wrote this, I was ready to call Invest 97L as Kirk and a category 2 storm by the weekend coming in, but the models told me otherwise and failed me. That was the most egregious eyesore of this past week, not calling for that one to develop. That said, I did nail the type of track I thought it would take, a track out to sea, and since it also didn’t hit land unlike Isaac, the bad portion that is this storm takes a little less heat overall for the week. This is also similar to another feeling that I had with Chris and Debby early in the year. Remember when I told about that dream of Chris over the Atlantic, and Debby in the Gulf of Mexico heading to Florida, both at the same time? That scenario came to also perfection – and I didn’t listen to my gut.

Wow, I just got way ahead of myself there. Let’s look at Isaac. I was certainly right on the track up to a landfall in Louisiana, including when the final one would take place, sometime early on Wednesday morning. I also nailed the strong wave effects from the Florida Gulf Coast around to Mississippi and Louisiana, being stronger in south and central Florida, lesser further north, and then larger waves further and further west. I underestimated that these waves would also produce the type of storm surge that Isaac wound up producing though, mostly because of the angle I had Isaac making landfall at. I was about right on that northwesterly acute angle relative to the coast though. I was also pretty accurate in picking Gustav as an analog in that regard, but in doing so, I probably should have given more merit to the type of coastal flooding that could take place, and it happened in earnest. The exact landfall location was just barely east of Houma, a little outside my window, but not too far off. Isaac’s winds were also quite a bit lower than I anticipated, coming in at 80 mph officially (though 85 mph at post-analysis would not entirely surprise me either, given that it was strengthening up to landfall), but I was accurate on a pressure in the 960’s at minimum. Isaac then slowed down for a longer period of time than I thought over Louisiana, so the timing for reaching the Midwest and Great Lakes was about 24 hours off. Also off was the weakening to a tropical depression, though Isaac did weaken to a tropical storm when I thought it did; Isaac took an extra 12-18 hours to weaken to a depression. Still, I did call for a track like this, lots of inland freshwater flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi (though also in eastern Texas and Arkansas, which wasn’t quite as pronounced), and tornadoes were indeed common in the eastern bands of this storm, including in Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. I underestimated that threat to Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle though.

All told, with what I had to work with, I think I did a very decent job with Isaac. The track and timing up to landfall and even through Thursday were accurate, but Isaac did slow down more than I thought. Isaac had problems having stronger winds, but deepened to what I thought it would in terms of pressure. The track was a little east of what I thought but not too far off. Lastly, though off a little in places on the effects, these mistakes were for the most part minimal. I give myself a solid B for this storm.

As mentioned, I blew which disturbance would become Kirk. That said, the track for Invest 97L was accurate. But what about that the system I predicted to become Kirk? Well, since it was beat to that name, it was Leslie instead. For a late-week storm, which are always harder for me to predict, I didn’t do too horrible. I did underestimate the intensity, calling for a weaker 45-50 mph storm instead of the moderate to strong tropical storm she has become. Leslie (which remember I had becoming Kirk instead) also tracked further north from what I anticipated, but the reliable models did paint a picture of this storm heading pretty close to the Leeward Islands at the time. The timing of development into a tropical cyclone was impeccable, as it happened right on Thursday as I predicted, though a tropical storm came sooner than expected. The name may have been the wrong one, but the meteorology behind this system wasn’t terrible with what I had to work with. However, a tropical depression also formed today that no models saw coming, but it hasn’t gotten stronger as of yet. I don’t know that I would have called for this development with what I had to work with.

Overall, this was a pretty tough week, I did blow it with Invest 97L as it became Kirk, but what happened with the system that I thought would be Kirk instead was passable but not too great with what I had to work with. I also didn’t see the thirteenth depression coming, but that was probably a tall order and it is far out there. But the decent job I did with Isaac should really be what defines this past week. Despite not doing so out with Kirk and Leslie, the decency of the Isaac prognostication not only saves this week, but because it was the big story given what it did, it does nearly fully define it. I give myself a B- for this past week.

Due to being at a Labor Day barbecue today, I am still writing this week's prediction, so it will still be a short while. However, I have ideas on what will happen at least, so hopefully no longer than a half hour or so.

-Andrew92

[somethingfunny]

You did a really good job with Isaac, right down to the odd pressure-wind relationship. Better than my Florida Panhandle call, for sure!