ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

Simmer down folks...


Looks like LSU isn't cancelling classes tomorrow as per their release.

[ozonepete]

Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.

The common thread between people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.

Common sense. The longer he takes to get his together the less time he has over open water. Unless of course you expect him to strengthen over land.

Common sense isn't science. This has a LOT of very warm open water to traverse. It has very good mid-level moisture and the circulation has now walled off to the southwest where mid-level dry air could have entrained. The upper level outflow is very impressive and the symmetry is as well. It is moving away from land and will pretty soon be ingesting air that is completely over very warm water. In short, it has done almost all it need to get its act together today and has very little if any impediments to intensification now. One is that the circulation is so large that the center takes longer to consolidate for this sized storm, but it appears to be doing that quite well. The other is as it approaches land it may ingest dry air from there. But it is expected to make cat 2 and could easily make cat 3 before then. That will push a very serious storm surge to the coast even if it weakens from the dry air as it makes landfall.

[fasterdisaster]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

[tolakram]

Whoever put a personal disclaimer on my post...thanks. I didn't know we need a disclaimer for stating a television Met's predictions.

Questionable decision on my part. I did not notice it was a met quote.

[TwisterFanatic]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

Exactly, as the NHC guy said on the weather channel earlier, Isaac is in the early stages of strengthening.

[tolakram]

Ok, we need to change the subject to something more constructive. To many frayed nerves here.

[ozonepete]

Oh, and count me among those who has never said it would RI and isn't saying it now. It can make cat 2 or even cat 3 without RI.

Ok, Mark.

[cycloneye]

Mark,what about a Funktop image to veer back the theme of this thread?

[SunnyThoughts]

[bayoubebe]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I strongly agree with all three of you. Although Isaac has already affected land, the intensity forecasts are scaring people unnecessarily. They're saying it will become a 100 mph Category 2, yet with every advisory, that's being pushed back by several hours. Although Isaac has become better-organized, it has not yet made it above 65 mph. There is, of course, still the potential of this to become a hurricane, but I cannot imagine it making it above 85 or 90 mph at peak strength. To me, there just isn't enough time for it to make it past Category 1 strength. And plus, Isaac has to deal with internal problems, like a disorganized circulation.

Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's why I wish people would stop proclaiming the onset of rapid intensification with out any evidence to back up their statements. There has been something every day in this storm that has made it buck intensification trends. Every day it will look better for a while and people will get on the "this is it's time" bandwagon, and it peters out, not living up to expectations. too many people want this to be another Katrina for some reason, and I just don't know why.

Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.

[pledger28]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

You stated that Issac is well on his way to forming an inner core. I am a novice and trying to learn all I can. On the model forum it is being said that the eye is relocating north as we speak. I thought it would have to have a core before it had an eye. And if it just now on its way to developing a core then how could a non existant eye be relocating to the north? Also, I believe I read somewhere that a tropical storm rarely has an eye. That would be a trait of a hurricane. Any feedback would be appreciated.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's been pretty crazy in New Orleans today...I wish some of you who haven't experience the build-up of a hurricane approaching could have seen my grocery store and the gas station...it was a pretty crazy experience. Service station ran out of gas, grocery store ran out of all water, Home Depot ran out of batteries, and the streets were just nuts. But, I got what I need...hopefully I won't have to get anything tomorrow...I'm sure I'll remember something. And hopefully, the westward model trend we see continues....

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The common thread between people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.

Common sense. The longer he takes to get his together the less time he has over open water. Unless of course you expect him to strengthen over land.

Common sense isn't science. This has a LOT of very warm open water to traverse. It has very good mid-level moisture and the circulation has now walled off to the southwest where mid-level dry air could have entrained. The upper level outflow is very impressive and the symmetry is as well. It is moving away from land and will pretty soon be ingesting air that is completely over very warm water. In short, it has done almost all it need to get its act together today and has very little if any impediments to intensification now. One is that the circulation is so large that the center takes longer to consolidate for this sized storm, but it appears to be doing that quite well. The other is as it approaches land it may ingest dry air from there. But it is expected to make cat 2 and could easily make cat 3 before then. That will push a very serious storm surge to the coast even if it weakens from the dry air as it makes landfall.

the thing is there Pete, you aren't describing RI, you are describing a steady climb. I know I wasn't and I don't think TZ was discounting the probability of a steady increase. I think both of us are just tired of people who aren't professional mets coming to the boards and proudly claiming the onset of RI, and not having anything to back it up. Sure, most definitely this can be a serious situation when it make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, but to come on here, without anything to back up a statement and make it sound like Katrina 2.0 is getting ready to happen is just wrong. Most of us have been a part of this board for a few years and know who to pay attention to and who not to, but a lot of visitors don't and start panicking. I think it is irresponsible and to post stuff like that, and i am sure that is why this board has rules against that.

[SunnyThoughts]

It's been pretty crazy in New Orleans today...I wish some of you who haven't experience the build-up of a hurricane approaching could have seen my grocery store and the gas station...it was a pretty crazy experience. Service station ran out of gas, grocery store ran out of all water, Home Depot ran out of batteries, and the streets were just nuts. But, I got what I need...hopefully I won't have to get anything tomorrow...I'm sure I'll remember something. And hopefully, the westward model trend we see continues....

Good luck to you Sean, same thing happened here in the panhandle on Friday and Saturday. Hope you guys fair well.

[JSDS]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

I've lived in the Baton Rouge area for 55 years (not in a low lying area) and I have never evacuated. However, I can't guarantee that we will have power

[SapphireSea]

We have to go based off of recon data here. The LLC is still displaced from much of the heaviest convection, no matter how good or how pronounced an MLC looks. No doubt that there is strengthening happening. We have to step back, take a deep breath and look at the NHC's guidance. As of right now it's been on the money. RI and "Steady" strengthening talk, to no offense to anyone at all, is getting dangerously close to sounding like media hype IMO.

[Macrocane]

Even if Isaac makes landfall as a cat 3 it can be very dangerous and produce a high storm surge, remember that Ike was "only" a cat 2 when it made landfall, of course it was larger than Isaac but it's an example of why the power of a "Minor " hurricane shouldn't be underestimated.

[bayoubebe]

Gosh, I sure hope you are right! That would make all the pro mets out there today I listened to on t.v. and radio wrong, but I would LOVE for you to be correct. And, it certainly has caused somewhat of a panic around here. BUT, better safe, than sorry. I don't think there will be any chances taken with school closings, evacuations, etc. after Katrina.

Edit: I completely made a mess out of the quoting. This was directed to those of you who think this storm will not be as bad as predicted.

[Sonica]

Gas Stations have lines. Everyones is out late on a Sunday Night. For some reason this one is not worrying me. At least not yet.