down to 90 knots from it's secondary peak of 100 knots and expected to weaken further...
WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 36.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.3E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
FROM TY 16W. THIS INTERACTION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED AND THE CENTER HAS
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN; HOWEVER, A 261227Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THUS
PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW. TY 15W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK INTERACTION OCCURRING WITH TY 16W, WHICH IS CENTERED 695
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY 15W'S CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24 AND WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD TO THE EAST AS TY 16W TRACKS QUICKLY POLEWARD INTO THE YELLOW
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER,
OR PERHAPS JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH A 400 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FAVORS THE ECMWF AND
JGSM SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. TY 15W IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SHANGHAI
REGION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
SPREAD AT TAU 120. GFDN IS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER WHILE UKMO
REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIER WITH A POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. THE JTWC FORECAST ALSO FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WARNINGS. TY 15W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
SHOULD DECREASE TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. BASED ON THE COMPLEX
AND WEAK STEERING PATTERN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION WITH
TY 16W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
indeed, Lanyu Island is constantly reporting typhoon-force winds and they just a gust of 180kph! 
