ATL: ISAAC - Models

[deltadog03]

looks just offshore at hr54....south of the MS/AL boarder.

[Wx_Warrior]

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[rockyman]

Hey delta which way is euro moving at 54?

[ROCK]

that door is about to slam shut to the NE....at 48hr

[deltadog03]

Landfall in MS....Moving north at hour 84....AGain, all of these models are off a bunch in the short term...we shall see what the 12z hold tomorrow...

[Wx_Warrior]

Nope, opens up.



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[Ntxw]

I don't understand why some would say to just throw out the runs because of the change. How do we know the model didn't see that change (not saying it did but what if) since real data input was hours earlier. The resolution and space between times spaced so its hard to know for sure.

[Hurricaneman]

Landfall in MS....Moving north at hour 84....AGain, all of these models are off a bunch in the short term...we shall see what the 12z hold tomorrow...

does the relocation make it more likely to go through the weakness shown, it probably will be there 6 hrs earlier than modeled

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nederlander]

I don't understand why some would say to just throw out the runs because of the change. How do we know the model didn't see that change (not saying it did but what if). The resolution and space between time stamps spaced so its hard to know for sure.

Because the models were ran without the center relocation (if such a relocation has actually occurred) ingested into them. Whether or not this is going to matter a whole lot as far as eventual landfall is the question. Forward speed is more meaningful IMO with this setup rather than small wobbles.

[deltadog03]

Yes, this would help it get to the weakness quicker...
HR 96 still drifting north through MS....
Sorry Rock, no texas this run..

[Ntxw]

I don't understand why some would say to just throw out the runs because of the change. How do we know the model didn't see that change (not saying it did but what if). The resolution and space between time stamps spaced so its hard to know for sure.

Because the models were ran without the center relocation (if such a relocation has actually occurred) ingested into them. Whether or not this is going to matter a whole lot as far as eventual landfall is the question. Forward speed is more meaningful IMO with this setup rather than small wobbles.

I get this, but 0z models were actually ran before this happened. How do we know the models didn't have it happen but during the gaps we don't see between frames and adjust with available data, if that makes sense.

[southerngale]

0z EURO High Detailed Resolution


Thanks DT, for the image

[ROCK]

Yes, this would help it get to the weakness quicker...
HR 96 still drifting north through MS....
Sorry Rock, no texas this run..

pfft, please....been here longer enough to know better than to lobby for a Texas landfall. Thats for new peeps that dont know any better...The possiblilty was there though for a few hours....

[deltadog03]

Yes, this would help it get to the weakness quicker...
HR 96 still drifting north through MS....
Sorry Rock, no texas this run..

pfft, please....been here longer enough to know better than to lobby for a Texas landfall. Thats for new peeps that dont know any better...The possiblilty was there though for a few hours....

I am just pickin' at ya...lol Oh, I know...I think its a pretty good track...However* I wouldn't be surprised if the models shift a bit east tomorrow, depending on what happens the rest of the night tonight with Isaac.

[ROCK]

Yes, this would help it get to the weakness quicker...
HR 96 still drifting north through MS....
Sorry Rock, no texas this run..

pfft, please....been here longer enough to know better than to lobby for a Texas landfall. Thats for new peeps that dont know any better...The possiblilty was there though for a few hours....

I am just pickin' at ya...lol Oh, I know...I think its a pretty good track...However* I wouldn't be surprised if the models shift a bit east tomorrow, depending on what happens the rest of the night tonight with Isaac.

I know you were....the GFS will mostly likely fall in line on the 06Z and 12Z....

[Nederlander]

I am just pickin' at ya...lol Oh, I know...I think its a pretty good track...However* I wouldn't be surprised if the models shift a bit east tomorrow, depending on what happens the rest of the night tonight with Isaac.

Agreed. I don't see anything that would indicate any more westward trends in the models unless something happens with his speed or the eastern ridge builds in strong. I feel like the NHC track is probably about right or maybe a tad east of there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The models aren't ready for the public...they need to stop revealing the models like this....the models have been so back and forth and truly completely unreliable. It's been nothing short of a guessing game and it's not fair to do that to the generel public (especially the elderly). There are alot of people in the public who do not understand models and with how unreliable they are, I just don't think it is good for us to reveal their runs...we would do much better with forecasting by following the traditional methods of watching the barometric pressure. This storm has revealed all models to be a joke...they are only good for about 36 hours before any strike. Weather is complex and it is evident that it will take several more years before these models are meant to be taking seriously. As for now...they just don't have it. How many more years before we stop having weathermen simply interpreting these models to us over the television until we simply have a voice on our TV reading to us what the forecast is based on a computer analysis??? I miss Nash Roberts....now we are simply stuck with a bunch of weather people guessing as much as the computers because that is what they do...they follow what a computer says. Not good.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

sing. People make there own decisons and are responsible for there own actions.. Information needs to be free. The public does not need to lectured. Thank u very little

[Nederlander]

The models aren't ready for the public...they need to stop revealing the models like this....the models have been so back and forth and truly completely unreliable. It's been nothing short of a guessing game and it's not fair to do that to the generel public (especially the elderly). There are alot of people in the public who do not understand models and with how unreliable they are, I just don't think it is good for us to reveal their runs...we would do much better with forecasting by following the traditional methods of watching the barometric pressure. This storm has revealed all models to be a joke...they are only good for about 36 hours before any strike. Weather is complex and it is evident that it will take several more years before these models are meant to be taking seriously. As for now...they just don't have it. How many more years before we stop having weathermen simply interpreting these models to us over the television until we simply have a voice on our TV reading to us what the forecast is based on a computer analysis??? I miss Nash Roberts....now we are simply stuck with a bunch of weather people guessing as much as the computers because that is what they do...they follow what a computer says. Not good.

Sigh.... No human could ever consider the amount of data that the models do when forecasting. The good meteorologists, like many of the ones on this site, will sometimes add their own spice when discussing models, but the models are the best thing we have. Are they perfect? No, but I'll take them before I trust someone's 'gut'. It almost seems like you prefer climo over the computer models. I'll put the GFS and Euro up against climo any day of the week with regards to TC forecasting. We cant treat the public like children. Sorry, couldn't zip my lip. That's all I have to say about that.

[BenD]

Sigh.... No human could ever consider the amount of data that the models do when forecasting. The good meteorologists, like many of the ones on this site, will sometimes add their own spice when discussing models, but the models are the best thing we have. Are they perfect? No, but I'll take them before I trust someone's 'gut'. It almost seems like you prefer climo over the computer models. I'll put the GFS and Euro up against climo any day of the week with regards to TC forecasting. We cant treat the public like children. Sorry, couldn't zip my lip. That's all I have to say about that.

Agreed. Like any tool, the computer models simply make the job easier to do in the end. The MET's have an easier job of explaining what is going on and above all else, instead of having to figure out the most likely route a storm is going to take, they just have to validate the model results which is much easier then working from scratch. Its a huge time saver but I would tend to also say Professional MET's are still needed (especially!) for storms like this one where the models are not faring as well as they generally do.

To explain it simply, models are what make it possible to make forecasts so far out into time. Without them, we would have at most 1-2 day warnings for tropical storms and that would be much worse in my humble opinion.