ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tom8]

27 Aug 2012 11:40 UTC

[GCANE]

Getting a few overshooting tops.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... display=50

[Frank P]

Stays at 65mph...again.It's dropped 7mb and it's still 65mph?

Has a pretty hugh wind field.. this and forward motion speed could have big impact on storm surge, esp along east LA and MS coast

[tolakram]

Here is that rapid scan floater someone asked about earlier this morning.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

and here is another rapid scan, 1 minute loop that can be customized (see controls below the image, or edit the URL)

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

[ColinDelia]

... It really makes me appreciate what it takes to sustain a 4 or 5.

Yeah. Only half of all systems that make it to tropical storm status spend any amount of time as a hurricane. And each category has fewer members than the one prior. Majors are Infrequent. It's sometimes even difficult to recognize the negative intensity factors until after the fact.

I think it was Bonnie in 2010 that everyone thought would become a Hurricane but that persistent little ULL kept it in check despite the fact that the rest of the factors were quite positive.

Even the NHC has difficulties with intensity and has made much less progress with intensity forecasts than track forecasts.

[ColinDelia]

"clouds and radar suggest eye forming" - recon

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Eye looks ready to pop out!

[capepoint]

Agree with dry air to eastward. Also, this has a pretty big field, so it will take time to get all of that moving to catch-up with pressure.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know what happened to AF Recon.

[wxwatcher1999]

What is the movement at the present moment?

[tolakram]

saved Tampa radar loop

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What is the movement at the present moment?

WNW not sure if you want degrees though don't know that.

[Time_Zone]

Isaac is litterly being eaten alive by dry air to his east. Isaac continues to struggle greatly.

My prediction of a category 1 hurricane landfall all along looks pretty good at this point.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

Might be a stupid question but when is the NW movement supposed to start

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Might be a stupid question but when is the NW movement supposed to start

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

Latest Microwave Image

[Dave C]

Looking at the radar posted in the recon thread and comparing it to the sat. pic hurricane andrew 92 posted you can see it on the se edge of the convection with a narrow band around it's east side. It's right near the point of his arrow that he drew. Just my opinion

[GCANE]

Looks like steady eyewall building now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Blinhart]

I think a lot of people are just looking at the wind speed, I really think that is dangerous. Yes a lot of damage is done by the wind, but this storm is very large, the southern end of Florida is still feeling the effects of Isaac (rain), so we need to take that into consideration. This is going to cause a lot of surge from the water just being pushed in over a long time, I know right now they are predicting around 12 feet of surge, but if the pressure continues to drop this will cause the system to yes gain some wind speed after a while (it takes a long time for a large system like this to have the winds catch up to the pressure) which will add more water on top of the surge to maybe 15 to 18 feet. This doesn't include the waves and rain on top of that, so most likely the main effects of this system will be flooding.

Also the ground down here in South Louisiana is very saturated, so there will be a lot of flash flooding. This also makes the ground around a lot more easily prone to allow the very large trees down here to blown down by just TS force winds.

[Javlin]

Might be a stupid question but when is the NW movement supposed to start

Last set of cords. was 5/5=NW just is that trend or not ?