Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Yikes,over Puerto Rico on the 18z GFS run at 180 hours. The intensity over PR is at 997mbs.

How much does 997mb translate to on the GFS long range?
And why did the 12Z Euro move it so far out compared to previous runs?

I prefer to wait until the models get to 144 hours and lower in time because long ranges cause models to do big swings as the Euro did.

[HurricaneFan]

Yikes,over Puerto Rico on the 18z GFS run at 180 hours. The intensity over PR is at 997mbs.

How much does 997mb translate to on the GFS long range?
And why did the 12Z Euro move it so far out compared to previous runs?

I prefer to wait until the models get to 144 hours and lower in time because long ranges cause models to do big swings as the Euro did.

True,but in 24 hours the Islands will be in the 144 hours time frame.

[rainstorm]

GFS has been consistent. whats it show past this?

[somethingfunny]

GFS has been pretty consistent on a NE Islands/Puerto Rico TS/hurricane strike around Labor Day, and while the 12z Euro recurved it before the islands, the 0z Euro also hit the NE Islands with a weak TS before it heads for Bermuda as a strengthening system. As for what the GFS shows past this, the past four GFS solutions have varied wildly. All intensify it past the islands, but one heads for Bermuda and Newfoundland, one heads between Bermuda and the US before nailing Nova Scotia, one hits the Dominican Republic and Turks&Caicos before recurving off towards the Canadian Maritimes, and one rides north of Puerto Rico into the Bahamas before striking South Carolina...

There's nothing definite about the long-range GFS, but agreement is coming together on another storm threatening the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in a week's time, and there is now a thread for what is now called P20L.

[Blown Away]

Yikes,over Puerto Rico on the 18z GFS run. The intensity over PR is at 997mbs.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2dh9t3t.jpg

Which area in the Atlantic is this storm? 97L, wave off Africa, or something else??

[somethingfunny]

It's P20L, the wave coming off Africa now.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113504

[HurricaneFan]

GFS has been pretty consistent on a NE Islands/Puerto Rico TS/hurricane strike around Labor Day, and while the 12z Euro recurved it before the islands, the 0z Euro also hit the NE Islands with a weak TS before it heads for Bermuda as a strengthening system. As for what the GFS shows past this, the past four GFS solutions have varied wildly. All intensify it past the islands, but one heads for Bermuda and Newfoundland, one heads between Bermuda and the US before nailing Nova Scotia, one hits the Dominican Republic and Turks&Caicos before recurving off towards the Canadian Maritimes, and one rides north of Puerto Rico into the Bahamas before striking South Carolina...

There's nothing definite about the long-range GFS, but agreement is coming together on another storm threatening the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in a week's time, and there is now a thread for what is now called P20L.

At what times during the day does the model runs come out?(00Z,6Z,12Z and 18Z)

[South Texas Storms]

GFS has been pretty consistent on a NE Islands/Puerto Rico TS/hurricane strike around Labor Day, and while the 12z Euro recurved it before the islands, the 0z Euro also hit the NE Islands with a weak TS before it heads for Bermuda as a strengthening system. As for what the GFS shows past this, the past four GFS solutions have varied wildly. All intensify it past the islands, but one heads for Bermuda and Newfoundland, one heads between Bermuda and the US before nailing Nova Scotia, one hits the Dominican Republic and Turks&Caicos before recurving off towards the Canadian Maritimes, and one rides north of Puerto Rico into the Bahamas before striking South Carolina...

There's nothing definite about the long-range GFS, but agreement is coming together on another storm threatening the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in a week's time, and there is now a thread for what is now called P20L.

At what times during the day does the model runs come out?(00Z,6Z,12Z and 18Z)

The 0z models start updating at about 10pm eastern daylight time and usually finish at about 3am eastern daylight time. Add 6 hours to that for 6z, 6 more hours to that for 12z and 6 more hours to that for 18z. Does that make sense?

[cycloneye]

And another run (00z GFS) that develops wave in MDR area.

126 hours.



150 hours.

[HurricaneFan]

Does the Wave behind it make to the Lesser Antilles too on the 00Z GFS run?

[cycloneye]

Does the Wave behind it make to the Lesser Antilles too on the 00Z GFS run?

The first wave keeps moving west thru the Caribbean which is at Yucatan Peninsula and the second one goes just to the NE of the islands,this at 240 hours.

[sandyb]

Another run by GFS (12z) that develops wave and moves it across Lesser Antilles. At long range,it tracks very close to the New England coast.

168 hours.



In 192 hours is approaching Puerto Rico.



12z GFS Loop

on its way to New England how close does it get to NC?

[SouthFLTropics]

After watching the 6z GFS from this morning I feel like I just got done watching reruns from Isaac models. Takes what I believe is the wave coming off of Africa and goes South of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba and then blows up in the GOM and slams NOLA. Way out in the fantasy time frame right now but...

SFT

[stormandan28]

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stormcenter2011.ucoz.com

[stormandan28]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[rainstorm]

looks like another isaac. at least isaac isnt disturbing the water too much

[BigB0882]

I thought those were images of Isaac! That's not funny, GFS, not at all. In all seriousness, though, it is a great place to be in the strike zone 300 hours out. That would be one GIGANTIC victory for the GFS to get it right so far out. We should be safe.

NOT A FORECAST.

[Ntxw]

I wanted to make note about looking at the models long range. Suppression is kicking into the Atlantic basin, the stuff coming off the African train has a chance to develop if they can do it quickly. Anything else shown in the longer range I would question more than recently as conditions in the basin will gradually become unfavorable. Now this does not mean a rogue storm can't develop just that the environment to keep storms going is not as good as this past week.

Fortunately this suppression may be the culprit to the dry air arising near Isaac lately and has kept him from getting out of hand thus far.

[ROCK]

I wanted to make note about looking at the models long range. Suppression is kicking into the Atlantic basin, the stuff coming off the African train has a chance to develop if they can do it quickly. Anything else shown in the longer range I would question more than recently as conditions in the basin will gradually become unfavorable. Now this does not mean a rogue storm can't develop just that the environment to keep storms going is not as good as this past week.

Fortunately this suppression may be the culprit to the dry air arising near Isaac lately and has kept him from getting out of hand thus far.

now we will get a major....just inxed us all!!!

[Cyclenall]

I wanted to make note about looking at the models long range. Suppression is kicking into the Atlantic basin, the stuff coming off the African train has a chance to develop if they can do it quickly. Anything else shown in the longer range I would question more than recently as conditions in the basin will gradually become unfavorable.

Fortunately this suppression may be the culprit to the dry air arising near Isaac lately and has kept him from getting out of hand thus far.

I was just about to say, conditions are already unfavorable right now, just look at Isaac! How does a strong TS struggle in the GOM during peak season? Add to that the NHC calling the GOM conditions "very favorable" and you get Issac as is.