TD Soon??

[chadtm80]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on September 5, 2003


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on dangerous
Hurricane Fabian...located about 125 miles north-northeast of
Bermuda...and on Tropical Storm Henri located about 70 miles
southwest of St. Petersburg Florida.
Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave located
about 475 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
better organized this evening. A tropical depression could form
within the next 12 to 24 hours as it moves toward the west at 10 to
15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

We could wake up tommorow with TD#13 in the atlantic.

[rob8303]

But the general consensus is that unless things change, TD 13 is a guaranteed fish right from the start right? We don't go into TD 13 thinking it's a serious threat to the U.S? Or, do we? I don't know...just asking.
I wanted to continue pouting about this year's tropical season but I couldn't resist posting. I'm back

[Stormsfury]

But the general consensus is that unless things change, TD 13 is a guaranteed fish right from the start right? We don't go into TD 13 thinking it's a serious threat to the U.S? Or, do we? I don't know...just asking.
I wanted to continue pouting about this year's tropical season but I couldn't resist posting. I'm back

Models have been trending west ...

SF

[rob8303]

Any troughs forecast to form of the U.S and steer T.D 13 away like Fabian was steered away in the long-range? BTW, It seems unlikely (just gut feeling) that this storm will be especially powerful after we've just seen one of the strongest atlantic hurricanes in years. Two powerful storms in sucession are quite rare right?

[chadtm80]

Animated http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

[chadtm80]

http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/go ... 70_100.jpg


http://www.eumetsat.de/mdrs/img/jpg/D4_F_latest.jpg

[ameriwx2003]

Yes it should be a TD tomorrow... looks much better then Frenchie Henri ever did:):):)

[ColdFront77]

I don't think it is that rare to have two powerful tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, back-to-back; especially if the second one doesn't move over the same water the one ahead of it did.

The forecast models guidance can indicate a storm moving out to sea where this system is now and as time goes by that can change to a long lasting westward movement and change at least once during its existence.

[Anonymous]

......As to exactly where it ends up, it's a little far out in time to say. The models trend it west, but its hard to project whether it'll end up as a fish spinner or it'll crash into the EC or even take a spin around the GOM.

It definitely bears watching.


-Jeb

[JetMaxx]

There have been back-to-back powerful Atlantic hurricanes on many occasions over the years.....anyone else remember Floyd and Gert in 99'? Both hit 150+ mph What about David (924 mb) and Frederic (943 mb) in 79'?? What about Edouard and Fran in 96' and Gabrielle and Hugo in 89'??
Also remember 185 mph Gilbert and 140 mph Helene in 88'....as I said, it's happened many times in the past 100 years.

There's no reason to doubt soon to be IMO TD 13 won't become a hurricane, and probably an intense one. As to where it goes, that's up in the air...simply too early to know. I certainly wouldn't take the 9, 10, or 12 day GFS recurving it as a "fish" as gospel....The GFS beyond 5 or 6 days is about as accurate as a 30.06 rifle with bent sights...anyone who puts stock in either is totally clueless.

Florida is so overdue for a major September hurricane it's scary....nothing since Betsy in 1965...and it should occur once per 9 years. That fact alone would have me glued to the satellite watching this system develop IF I lived in Miami or PBI.

Just my .02 cents worth....

PW

(yes...IMO we will have TD 13 by 11 a.m. SAT)

[Andrew92]

I think this will be a TD at 11 tomorrow, and even a storm by night if it's really well-organized. I don't see this as the "big one" for the United States though, but we'll still have to watch it as long as it's out there.

Without trying to go off-topic, I've always kinda leaned towards next year as potentially being the big year for CV storms to hit the U.S. (haven't had much to base it on since any forecasting would be LONG-range), but maybe this one will prove me wrong if it's not a fish.

-Andrew92

[ColdFront77]

I was sure of it Perry. Thank you for the insight on my thoughts on having back-to-back strong hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.