ATL: ISAAC - Models

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southerngale
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#5241 Postby southerngale » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:21 am

Maybe not a stall, but it seems to be crawling.

24h
Image

36h
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5242 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:25 am

ita because the weakness closes to fast....timing is everything....

I see the ensembles are more tightly clustered in central LA....just woke up after another EURO night...thats about 5 in a row now... :cheesy: I dont think I have done tha since 2008...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5243 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:27 am

12z nam +42 (The ridge is holding on by a thread)

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#5244 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:30 am

12z NAM +45 (The ridge has eroded)

Image

12z NAM +48

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5245 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:33 am

NAM showing Isaac becoming trapped in a COL and becoming a weakness/trough.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5246 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:38 am

What the nam is showing now seems to be what the gfs has been showing. Isaac skirting the la coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5247 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:43 am

12Z NAM +54

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#5248 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:45 am

This is a big shift for the NAM isnt it?
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#5249 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:50 am

when does the euro model start to get this thing cranking? this eve/ tonite? thanks to any reply's
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Re:

#5250 Postby nashrobertsx » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:56 am

Dean4Storms wrote:NAM showing Isaac becoming trapped in a COL and becoming a weakness/trough.

WHAT DOES "COL" Stand for?
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#5251 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:57 am

A little off topic but does anyone think that the NAM has gotten a little bit better with Tropical forecast? Im not saying its reliable or anything like that but it definitely gotten better IMO.
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Re:

#5252 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:00 am

Rgv20 wrote:A little off topic but does anyone think that the NAM has gotten a little bit better with Tropical forecast? Im not saying its reliable or anything like that but it definitely gotten better IMO.


the only reason it got better recently was because it is being fed all this data from the GVI flights and special soundings....you take that away and Isaac would be up the East Coast.... :lol:
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#5253 Postby nashrobertsx » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:07 am

36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
Unbelievable. This Lat/Long is Buras Louisiana.
Same exact spot as Katrina exactly 7 years to the day.
(Of course at 4 pm/ 10pm today and again at 4am tomorrow, I would imagine that line moving 25 miles west or east of this position... so)
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Re:

#5254 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:07 am

cpdaman wrote:when does the euro model start to get this thing cranking? this eve/ tonite? thanks to any reply's



About 2 - 3 hours from now.. give or take a few mins
Last edited by Jevo on Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#5255 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:07 am

ROCK wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:A little off topic but does anyone think that the NAM has gotten a little bit better with Tropical forecast? Im not saying its reliable or anything like that but it definitely gotten better IMO.


the only reason it got better recently was because it is being fed all this data from the GVI flights and special soundings....you take that away and Isaac would be up the East Coast.... :lol:


With the shift west from the nam does anyone think that might be an indication of more west shifts from the other models?
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Re: Re:

#5256 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:14 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:A little off topic but does anyone think that the NAM has gotten a little bit better with Tropical forecast? Im not saying its reliable or anything like that but it definitely gotten better IMO.


the only reason it got better recently was because it is being fed all this data from the GVI flights and special soundings....you take that away and Isaac would be up the East Coast.... :lol:


With the shift west from the nam does anyone think that might be an indication of more west shifts from the other models?


Looks like it may go more Westerly now. NHC mentions the ridge go stronger.
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Re: Re:

#5257 Postby mvtrucking » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:16 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:A little off topic but does anyone think that the NAM has gotten a little bit better with Tropical forecast? Im not saying its reliable or anything like that but it definitely gotten better IMO.


the only reason it got better recently was because it is being fed all this data from the GVI flights and special soundings....you take that away and Isaac would be up the East Coast.... :lol:


With the shift west from the nam does anyone think that might be an indication of more west shifts from the other models?


They have actually come into better agreement it seems, the last few runs.
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Re: Re:

#5258 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:16 am

nashrobertsx wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:NAM showing Isaac becoming trapped in a COL and becoming a weakness/trough.

WHAT DOES "COL" Stand for?



Cut-off low, I think?
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#5259 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:31 am

A col is a region right in the middle of two ridges and two lows. As a result the steering currents are very weak.
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#5260 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:31 am

NAM looks pretty slow on its forward motion by 36hrs, it is a little worrying that we may have a hurricane effectivly crawling.
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