ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover2012]

it looks like its making a jog west now

[MGC]

Winds here in Pass Christian are out of the NE but lite. I was just down at the beach and I could see the cirrus clouds on the horizon to the SE. Looks like I'll be in the RFQ of Isaac as he comes ashore. Hopefully the cyclone remains a TS but I'm expecting a Cat-1.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[wxwatcher1999]

it looks like its making a jog west now

Can you post images

[tolakram]

Isaac is now semi-exposed? lol man this storm really has been pathetic considering the hype. Not trying to be a downcaster but this thing has been a very poor excuse of a TC from the very start.

With it being poorly organized at this time would that warrant a westerly movement?

Who said it was poorly organized?

Some of you need to slow down and consider where you get your info. We are observing, not forecasting.

[wxman57]

that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...

CIMSS is showing easterly shear rather than southerly shear:

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/228/wg8shr.gif

Correct, which is why the convection is west and southwest of the center. Though I can see the convection starting to wrap around the east side of the center now. It appears to be better-organized as it has been over the last few days. Should reach Cat 1 by landfall.

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure down to 987mb with 30 knot winds... Starting to deepen lately:

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 54 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.15 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.18 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 35.0 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 36.9 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003&unit=E&tz=STN

[Portastorm]

it looks like its making a jog west now

The satellite can be deceiving. While the bulk of the cloud mass appears to be moving more west ... if you look closely at the satellite and the actual center location, the storm is moving northwest. Because of the easterly/northeasterly shear, the looks can be a bit deceiving.

[windnrain]

So... what is the longest track for a storm without ever becoming a hurricane?

Its insane to look at our storm map up there and just see a yellow line through 3 basins...

[tolakram]

Very close now to a completed eyewall, IMO.

[wxman57]

Here's a new screen shot. Note that the east Gulf buoy went from a NNE wind to a S-SSW wind at 30 kts. Pressure about 987mb, indicating it's right near the center:

[frederic79]

With all due respect, don't you mean 987, not 897?

[seahawkjd]

I've heard a couple of times that the one feeder band thats still over Florida has broken off from the storm. Is there any chance of a low forming from that off the SE coast?

[windnrain]

Kind of curious, that feeder breaking off... does that help Isaac shed excess weight and strengthen?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Very close now to a completed eyewall, IMO.

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/784/zztemp.jpg

Only problem is that that area is now where Recon seems to be headed...

[superstareporter]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe the reason it is not doing anything is because of low water temps this year. Here in Pensacola we had rain EVERY day, probably over an inch each day, for around a month, which has to bring down the water temps. I even notice when I goto swim in the gulf right now it is chilly! And the years we had Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Ike, the water was like a bathtub, probably around 90º along the shore. The SST may have bounced back a bit the last week before, but just under it I am sure it is not as warm as it was when those storms were in the Gulf. Also the air is quite dry right now, and has been for a few days.

[Texashawk]

Very close now to a completed eyewall, IMO.

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/784/zztemp.jpg

Only problem is that that area is now where Recon seems to be headed...

Why would that be a problem? I'd assume that's where they'd want to go...

[artist]

everyone within its path and outskirts, please take heed now. We are on the east coast of Florida about 12 miles inland and we have severe flooding out here. And the rain just keeps coming. Be prepared.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm having a hard time seeing much of any northward component on the latest satellite loops.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Very close now to a completed eyewall, IMO.

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/784/zztemp.jpg

Only problem is that that area is now where Recon seems to be headed...

Why would that be a problem? I'd assume that's where they'd want to go...

lol I meant Not where they are headed... lol

[TYNI]

From the forecast discussion (10AM)

"THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO TO BE DUE TO THE
LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND RADII...WHICH HAVE YET TO CONTRACT
INWARD...ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION. UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT..."

No mention of SSTs

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe the reason it is not doing anything is because of low water temps this year. Here in Pensacola we had rain EVERY day, probably over an inch each day, for around a month, which has to bring down the water temps. I even notice when I goto swim in the gulf right now it is chilly! And the years we had Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Ike, the water was like a bathtub, probably around 90º along the shore. The SST may have bounced back a bit the last week before, but just under it I am sure it is not as warm as it was when those storms were in the Gulf. Also the air is quite dry right now, and has been for a few days.