ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Recon is headed for the center.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking better and better, I am going to guess recon will find a nearly closed eyewall, but since this is Isaac I won't guess on strength.

[jlauderdal]

everyone within its path and outskirts, please take heed now. We are on the east coast of Florida about 12 miles inland and we have severe flooding out here. And the rain just keeps coming. Be prepared.

weather today has been more active then at the same time yesterday in fll

FORT LAUDERDALE, FL
Your Radar | Current Conditions | 15-Day Forecast
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AND COASTAL AREAS STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES EVERY TWO HOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE AREAS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY TO THE BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE.

[HurrMark]

From the forecast discussion (10AM)

"THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO TO BE DUE TO THE
LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND RADII...WHICH HAVE YET TO CONTRACT
INWARD...ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION. UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT..."

No mention of SSTs

What about SST's?

[superstareporter]

That's because they sit at a desk hundreds of miles away and rely on computer data and not actual feel the water...trust me, it is chilly for this time of year. No bombing gonna happen here...and where is that disclaimer button???

[wxman57]

With all due respect, don't you mean 987, not 897?

Huh? Don't know what you're talking about. Better re-read it. It definitely says 987. (it's good to be a moderator)

[Ellsey]

Looking better and better, I am going to guess recon will find a nearly closed eyewall, but since this is Isaac I won't guess on strength.

I know right? Knowing this storm it will have a complete eyewall and max winds of like 60 mph.


THIS POST IS ONLY MY OPINION AND NOT BASED ON ANY FACTUAL INFORMATION. PLEASE SEE THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS FOR REAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS STORM.

[mascpa]

That feeder band just a tad west of the coast line is really letting loose with the rain. There was flooding when I came into work this morning. Talked with my wife at the house and she says it has been absolutely pouring rain all morning and the flooding is getting worse. I figure at least half of my property is under water now (glad we mowed the lawn last week!).

[drezee]

Here's a new screen shot. Note that the east Gulf buoy went from a NNE wind to a S-SSW wind at 30 kts. Pressure about 987mb, indicating it's right near the center:

Buoy measured

11:38 am 986.3 mb

At that time is was also measuring a 42 mph sustained wind

11:39 am 36.9 kts S ( 190 deg true )

Using the 10kt rule...you could argue for 983 or 982 mb...

[tolakram]

That's because they sit at a desk hundreds of miles away and rely on computer data and not actual feel the water...trust me, it is chilly for this time of year. No bombing gonna happen here...and where is that disclaimer button???

You have to copy paste it from above the posting box.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You can also paste that into your signature to keep from forgetting.

Now everyone, we will have differences of opinion, be polite, say your piece, and move on.

[wxman57]

That's because they sit at a desk hundreds of miles away and rely on computer data and not actual feel the water...trust me, it is chilly for this time of year. No bombing gonna happen here...and where is that disclaimer button???

Not good to bash the NHC. And I'm not sure we could say 29C to 29.5C (84-85F) is "chilly". True, it's not as warm as it has been in recent years. Take a look at the SST map below:

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _cdas1.png

[hiflyer]

KMSY 271726Z 2718/2818 02013KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250
FM272300 02018KT P6SM BKN050 OVC100
FM280600 02025G34KT P6SM BKN030
TEMPO 2809/2812 2SM SHRA=

Some air carriers already canceling service from New Oleans after tonight. That 25kt sustained gust 34kt for 0600z is telling.

[JamesCaneTracker]

From the forecast discussion (10AM)

"THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO TO BE DUE TO THE
LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND RADII...WHICH HAVE YET TO CONTRACT
INWARD...ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION. UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT..."

No mention of SSTs

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe the reason it is not doing anything is because of low water temps this year. Here in Pensacola we had rain EVERY day, probably over an inch each day, for around a month, which has to bring down the water temps. I even notice when I goto swim in the gulf right now it is chilly! And the years we had Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Ike, the water was like a bathtub, probably around 90º along the shore. The SST may have bounced back a bit the last week before, but just under it I am sure it is not as warm as it was when those storms were in the Gulf. Also the air is quite dry right now, and has been for a few days.

Yeah with Ideal conditions the Gulf is more then able to support a strong Cat 5 hurricane with pressures down below what Wilma had... Can't find the link to the graphic I was thinking of...

[tolakram]

Latest, wide view

[fwbbreeze]

That's because they sit at a desk hundreds of miles away and rely on computer data and not actual feel the water...trust me, it is chilly for this time of year. No bombing gonna happen here...and where is that disclaimer button???

Not good to bash the NHC. And I'm not sure we could say 29C to 29.5C (84-85F) is "chilly". True, it's not as warm as it has been in recent years. Take a look at the SST map below:

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _cdas1.png

Was fishing 10 miles out of Destin last week and the water temp was 87 degrees. Plenty warm for intensification. Now the inland waterways are suffering right now from some serious storm water runoff issues and yes they are polluted and cool....but not out in the gulf much past a mile.

[Texashawk]

174430 2626N 08610W 8416 01441 //// +192 //// 058043 045 039 001 01

Almost to the center of the CDO, still finding strong ENE winds. I don't think the center is as north as some people think.

[drezee]

174430 2626N 08610W 8416 01441 //// +192 //// 058043 045 039 001 01

Almost to the center of the CDO, still finding strong ENE winds. I don't think the center is as north as some people think.

I doubt that is the center of the cdo with a rainfall rate of 1mm/hr

[Extratropical94]

Yeah with Ideal conditions the Gulf is more then able to support a strong Cat 5 hurricane with pressures down below what Wilma had... Can't find the link to the graphic I was thinking of...

This graphic shows what theoretically is possible in the Gulf and the rest of the Atlantic.



EDIT: The link is http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[Texashawk]

174430 2626N 08610W 8416 01441 //// +192 //// 058043 045 039 001 01

Almost to the center of the CDO, still finding strong ENE winds. I don't think the center is as north as some people think.

I doubt that is the center of the cdo with a rainfall rate of 1mm/hr

Well, it's to the east of the center. However, my concern is that the LLC is still near 26 degrees north and closer to the middle of the overall CDO than it has been previously. If so, that may mean the center pull NW has stopped for now.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Yeah with Ideal conditions the Gulf is more then able to support a strong Cat 5 hurricane with pressures down below what Wilma had... Can't find the link to the graphic I was thinking of...

This graphic shows what theoretically is possible in the Gulf and the rest of the Atlantic.

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/1050/natlprmslmsl000.png

Thanks that exactly what I was looking for!

[frederic79]

A sampling of buoys yesterday showed an average water temp of about 85 degrees, more than enough for a strong hurricane. When Georges transversed the Gulf in 1998, it was LATE September and water temps were around 81-82 degrees tops. It still made landfall as a high-end category 2 storm, around 105-110 sustained. So water temps aren't the issue here.

Also, does it seem like Isaac has slowed some or still trucking? Just wondering if I am seeing things...